Taiwan in T2K

[RN7]

Originally Posted by madmikechoi

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

Taiwan was an existential threat to the PRC during the Cold War when Taiwan was protected by the U.S. and had no hope of ever successfully invading the mainland due to being massively outnumbered by the PRC. Also a militant Taiwan would also have been restrained from invading mainland China by the U.S. and Soviet Union.

Now that mainland China is being invaded by the Soviet Union and the PRC has their backs to the wall the issue of the existence of Taiwan would be of little real consequence to the desperate PRC. It is possible that Taiwan could take advantage of this and ally itself with the Soviets for some territorial gains after the Soviets wipe out the PRC. But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.

Firstly they are both Chinese states and blood and language runs thicker than politics particularly when China is being invaded by a long term foe such as the Russians.

Secondly Kuomintang Taiwan has always despised communism and the prime communist state of the Soviet Union. They after all fought a vicious civil war with the Communist Chinese for decades on the mainland and ended up exiled on Formosa because of it.

Thirdly the Kuomintang have been allied with the U.S. since the Second World War and owe their survival to being under American protection. If America was not protecting Taiwan does anyone think it really would not be an offshore province of Communist China by now or in 1995.

Fourthly no Taiwanese government in its right mind would trust the Soviets to give them territory given their record. They have just launched a major and unprovoked invasion of the PRC which is a communist state. What guarantee is there that the Soviets would not renege on their promise and just invade Taiwan, especially after it broke its close links with the U.S.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by RN7

.But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.

What he said +1.

Personally, I've always found it a bit difficult to understand why the west would have supported China rather than sit back, break out the popcorn and watch. Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

[Raellus]

I agree that Taiwan would be very unlikely to forge an impromptu alliance with the Soviet Union. I just thought it was a really interesting premise that merited further examination.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Personally, I've always found it a bit difficult to understand why the west would have supported China rather than sit back, break out the popcorn and watch. Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

This argument only makes sense if both sides are more or less evenly-matched. It's premised on mutual destruction. What if it appears that one side is going to win quickly and decisively? This is what happens in the T2K v1.0 timeline- the Soviets start steamrolling across Manchuria, annihilating the PRC's front line formations. Early on, it looks like only one side is going to be destroyed, leaving the other unchallenged in East Asia. Why would the U.S. want that?

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

For this to happen, the U.S. has to supply the PRC. It makes perfect sense. If they don't, the USSR defeats the PRC in a year or two, and a major counterbalance to Soviet power in East Asia is permanently removed from the picture. The U.S. would not want this.