Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
I don't disagree with this point. My point is about perception and how an expansionist tyrant (Putin) would perceive NATO's failure to support Ukraine after a full-scale invasion. I firmly believe that Putin would see such failure as evidence of a lack of willpower on the part of NATO to go to war to defend a former SSR (applicable to the Baltic States). I'm basing this on Putin's psych profile and past behavior (the best indicator of future actions), as well as the historical parallels- namely the consequences of Great Britain and France failing to use military force in response to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia. As a result of this failure of resolve, the German dictator concluded that England and France would not go to war on behalf of Poland despite their public declarations to the contrary. As the infamous "Sitzkrieg" (Phony War) that followed Poland's partition showed, he was essentially correct.
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What ever we say about Hitler's delusional mindset, due to the 1930's Germans being the first masters of Combined arms maneuver warfare, their bite was at bad as their bark. Even if Putin is delusional, he knows his own forces are limited.
I feel Putin is first and foremost a survivor and I don't see him betting his life again on the capabilities of the Russian armed forces.
Thinking that Putin will feel emboldened to risk invoking Article 5 after:
- The absolutely pitiful attempt to defeat a force literally 10 times less capable than NATO would be
- Using his own force that is, at a minimum, 50% less capable than when the war started
is folly IMHO.
Even with a decade to recover Russia would not be able to defeat just Poland (with them getting the cream of the crop equipment from the US and ROK). The reason Putin is not backing down now, is to prevent his own downfall. Even if he "wins" his current conflict, his tempting fate by attacking a Polarbear (NATO) when he just barely eked out a bloody victory against a Coyote (Ukraine) means he is in jeopardy of losing everything again with even slimmer odds of survival (the most important factor to him).
I personally think if Putin ordered his generals to move into the Baltic states while NATO still exists, the command staff would realize if NATO came back with full force their remaining lifespan could be measured with an hourglass.
Prigozhin made it over 50% of the way to Moscow. There would not be much to stop these generals for making it there.
I want Russia defeated in Ukraine. I want all NATO members to take defense seriously and spend at least the 2% "required". I particularly want Germany who is limited in the number of armed forces it can deploy due to the reunification agreement, to make a super elite force befitting of their military history. But I don't like getting there via fear of something I don't feel is likely at all.