Who'd Have Thought (back in 1984)?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by stilleto69

I'm not for allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine, I'm just asking are we (the West) sure we have the stomach to do what is necessary. Is the West ready to possibly go to war with Russia and deal with the consequences (possible reinstatement of the Draft, massive casualties (military & civilian), etc.?

Thank you for the clarification. My point is that, by supporting Ukraine with materiel aid now, we are reducing the chances that we would have to go to war with Russia in the near future. The UAF is bleeding the Russian military dry using Western weapons systems. A weaker Russian military reduces the threat of invasion to its neighbors. Conversely, I think allowing Putin to conquer Ukraine by withholding military aid would actually increase the chances of a war between the USA and Russia for reasons I've outlined in previous posts (some of which I will reiterate here).

Originally Posted by stilleto69

I mean look at how the world is slowly changing it's attitude regarding Israel and it's war against Hamas, first it was do what you need to do to retaliate, now it's become you need to find a ceasefire agreement ASAP.

I think this is a function of worldwide discomfort with the disproportionate civilian casualties Israel's military operations v. Hamas are generating, more than anything else. If Israel's "self-defense" operations in Gaza hadn't killed something in the neighborhood of 35,000 civilians, I don't think there would be nearly as much diplomatic pressure on them to negotiate/accept a cease-fire.

Originally Posted by stilleto69

Furthermore, the argument that the West would not fight for Latvia or Estonia is erroneous due to both members being in NATO and any hesitation/refusal to intervene would basically destroy the entire purpose of Article 5.

I don't disagree with this point. My point is about perception and how an expansionist tyrant (Putin) would perceive NATO's failure to support Ukraine after a full-scale invasion. I firmly believe that Putin would see such failure as evidence of a lack of willpower on the part of NATO to go to war to defend a former SSR (applicable to the Baltic States). I'm basing this on Putin's psych profile and past behavior (the best indicator of future actions), as well as the historical parallels- namely the consequences of Great Britain and France failing to use military force in response to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia. As a result of this failure of resolve, the German dictator concluded that England and France would not go to war on behalf of Poland despite their public declarations to the contrary. As the infamous "Sitzkrieg" (Phony War) that followed Poland's partition showed, he was essentially correct.

Originally Posted by stilleto69

And finally, as I stated even if Putin wins in Ukraine, I don't see the Ukrainian Resistance just trowing their hands up and walking away. I see it like the Taliban/Iraqi forces that drove our (the US) "F'ing nuts" with the constant roadside attacks, etc. I see them doing just the same to any Russian "Liberators" until their military/political leadership has had enough and withdraws (even just to save face) like they did in Afghanistan 1989.

I agree with you on this point, but I don't think this scenario would make Poland and the Baltics any safer than the current status quo. A long, bloody guerilla war in Ukraine would destabilize the region even more so than it is destabilized now. For one, Eastern European NATO members would be inundated with millions more Ukrainian refugees. This would create economic, social, and political turmoil in those countries, greater than we've already seen. Furthermore, if Russia believed that Ukrainian partisans were receiving military aid (even just small arms and LAWs) from across the border with Poland et al, it would put those countries in greater danger from Russian aggression than they are in now. That is because Russian forces would presumably be at that border trying to stop said weapons shipments. Consequently, the potential for Russian military clashes with Polish forces would be much, much greater than they are now.

In conclusion, absent Putin declaring an end to his "special military operation" in Ukraine or coming to the negotiating table in good faith, I firmly believe that giving the UAF military aid that it requests (short of direct NATO intervention, of course) makes Europe safer than not aiding the UAF would.

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