Potential Australian/New Zealand/East Timor/Indonesia conflict (was Red Dawn Remake

[Targan]

Well I still get freaked out a little every time I think about Indonesia. People have told me time and again that the Indonesian military is qualitatively no match for Australia and New Zealand's armed forces but as an Australian I can't help but feel a bit threatened by Indonesia. Not so much as an immediate threat but a potential future threat. I mean there are what, around 21 million Australians. And our closest neighbour is the largest Muslim nation in the world with somewhere in the vicinity of 230 million people! All crowded on an archipelago in not particularly fantastic living conditions.

I don't think it takes a great leap of imagination to envisage a day where world conditions have deteriorated, rising sea levels eat away more and more of Indonesia's land mass, the military regain some of the power they have lost in the past 15 years and a more militant or (heaven forbid) radical Islamist government takes power. Right now Australia has powerful friends that would tend to scare off any conceivable military threat to Australia but that might not last forever. One of my big regrets is that if Australia and Indonesia ever enter into a serious stoush I'll be too old to do my part for my country in the manner my warrior spirit would want me to. I'll just have to find a sneakier way to have a go at the enemy.

I'm sure that most Indonesians are really nice people but take a look at what the Indonesian military and military-backed militias did in places like East Timor. That was only a few years ago and it was really, really nasty. The Indonesian military clearly has few qualms about engaging in activities that most western militaries would find abhorrent.

[waiting4something]

East timor was hardly even covered in the U.S. media(no big surprise), but I'm sure the sports world was. It is a wake call to most of us that believe bad things can't happen in modern times, but bad shit like that happens in places like the Congo a lot. We just blow it off and wonder who will be eliminated on American Idol. So yeah, I think one day we may be in for a rude awaking. For the U.S.A. our version of this would be Mexico. I always thought invading Mexico was more important then fighting in Iraq and Afganistan, and lately things are getting real interesting on the border.

I remember when I was in Indonesia for a short while. I was blown away by how third world it was. It reminded me of pictures in Soldier of Fortune magazine of Central America back in the 1980's. When I was touring one of the Indonesia Marine bases there I saw they even still had PT-76 tanks!

[Legbreaker]

Back in the day, we trained to fight against the mysterious Kamarians who's country was located somewhere around where Indonesia is - but definitely NOT Indonesia....

Rumour had it that if the Indonesians had the will, and managed to quickly obtain enough transport ships, they could be halfway across Australia before we were even able to mobilise. A couple of weeks later and Australia would consist of little more than the 400,000 living on Tasmania plus another 50,000 or so refugees from the mainland.

Of course there were a number of prerequisites for that scenario to occur (namely will and transport), but it was a topic of discussion late at night around the Company bar - the consensus was that as a unit we'd hit the hills and do what we could from there.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by waiting4something

East timor was hardly even covered in the U.S. media(no big surprise), but I'm sure the sports world was.

It wasn't much, though MSNBC covered it here in the US more than most. East Timor actually made it into the plot of several episodes of JAG as well, believe it or not.

[waiting4something]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

It wasn't much, though MSNBC covered it here in the US more than most. East Timor actually made it into the plot of several episodes of JAG as well, believe it or not.

I can't believe it. But, I was like 13 at the time, so I'll take your word for it. I just remember being interested in it, but what was shown was very vague.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

One of my friends was asked if he would rejoin the military when the fighting in East Timor occured. His cousin (female) was married to an ex-SAS guy who was also asked to come back

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by waiting4something

But, I was like 13 at the time, so I'll take your word for it. I just remember being interested in it, but what was shown was very vague.

Dude, you're killing me.

Webstral

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by waiting4something

I can't believe it. But, I was like 13 at the time, so I'll take your word for it. I just remember being interested in it, but what was shown was very vague.

You said it, Web! I'm almost old enough to be his grandfather!

[waiting4something]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

You said it, Web! I'm almost old enough to be his grandfather!

No, I just had my timeline screwed up I thought that it happened in the early 1990's, for some reason. How I was this far off I don't know? I could have swore something happen there back then, but I looked and I'm dead wrong. Sorry about that.

[headquarters]

Targan , you will be the grey haired gentleman with a brodie helmet and gasmask bag on your chest running around shouting all those insolent teenagers to attention in your towns home defense force.You might not be able to endure all the physical hardship that the younger ones can -but fighting a war isnt about running old chap .It is about holding your position and making the enemy run.

having the will to fight is pre requisite no 1 in a situation where national sovereignity is at stake in a sudden crisis or invasion.

The fellows who sank the Blucher the 9th of April 1940 ( one of the worlds most advanced and powerful warships at the time ) were reservists and the commander was in his 60s if I recall correctly .The guns were from the last half of the 1800s..The Kriegsmarine was cheeky and sent an esqadrille up the Oslofjord to capture our goverment,king and capitol in one fouls swoop in the guise of darkness,but they had to pass a narrow strait guarded by antique guns and a crew of reservist with a 3 week conscription in the 1920s behind them before they were recalled for this duty(!).The leaders were retired officers of ripe age.

The professional soldiers and young men in charge of the defense of our nation were biting their nails in fear and confusion, fleeing,surrendering,running around screaming incoherently ,and politicians were milling about with no clear orders - the decision to fight the approaching ships -and thus entering world war two was made by the unlikely heros of a band of reservists with little training and some old warhorses -some who had come out of retirement to take up posts at the Oscarsborg fortress in the Oslofjord -voluntarily.

It is a part of the story that the nationality of the ships approaching was unknown at the time the battery fired -for all they knew they might have been british!(We have fought them before you know).
But turns out -they were the boche and bobs your uncle -Norway became one of the allies.We were neutral at the time ,and the brits and the jerries both violated our neutrality .War with either seemed likely if it came to a situation with a push.
.

In a sudden invasion there will be panic and confusion -and as Legbreaker says -many professional military men will head for the hills because of the seemingly hopeless situation .Politicians and business men will back out in many cases -not willing to bear the responsibility for decisions that will lead to deaths.The fight is then left to reservists,volunteers and whoever else happens to be caught in the fighting .

Get a khaki kookabura slouch hat and some wide baggy shorts and go for it mate !

Originally Posted by Targan

Well I still get freaked out a little every time I think about Indonesia. People have told me time and again that the Indonesian military is qualitatively no match for Australia and New Zealand's armed forces but as an Australian I can't help but feel a bit threatened by Indonesia. Not so much as an immediate threat but a potential future threat. I mean there are what, around 21 million Australians. And our closest neighbour is the largest Muslim nation in the world with somewhere in the vicinity of 230 million people! All crowded on an archipelago in not particularly fantastic living conditions.

I don't think it takes a great leap of imagination to envisage a day where world conditions have deteriorated, rising sea levels eat away more and more of Indonesia's land mass, the military regain some of the power they have lost in the past 15 years and a more militant or (heaven forbid) radical Islamist government takes power. Right now Australia has powerful friends that would tend to scare off any conceivable military threat to Australia but that might not last forever. One of my big regrets is that if Australia and Indonesia ever enter into a serious stoush I'll be too old to do my part for my country in the manner my warrior spirit would want me to. I'll just have to find a sneakier way to have a go at the enemy.

I'm sure that most Indonesians are really nice people but take a look at what the Indonesian military and military-backed militias did in places like East Timor. That was only a few years ago and it was really, really nasty. The Indonesian military clearly has few qualms about engaging in activities that most western militaries would find abhorrent.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by headquarters

...and as Legbreaker says -many professional military men will head for the hills because of the seemingly hopeless situation .Politicians and business men will back out in many cases -not willing to bear the responsibility for decisions that will lead to deaths.The fight is then left to reservists,volunteers and whoever else happens to be caught in the fighting.

At the time we were reservists which was one of the reasons the hills were looking so good - home turf which some of us knew like the backs of our hands, not to mention our unit had suffered through quite a number of years of cutbacks in funding - we didn't think we'd be a priority to receive ammo, weapons, body armour (not that it was all that common then), and everything else necessary for a modern battlefield.
Fortunately most of us had our own arsenals to bolster the worn out M60s and two dozen L1A1s in the armoury, not to mention access to plenty of explosives (much of it home made).

The way we saw it, the regular soldiers would be toast in a rather short space of time and the majority of civilians would either choose not to fight, or be rolled over in a heartbeat. Us poor reservists along with whoever we could find willing and able to listen to us had the best chance of resistance long term.

Nearly 20 years later that attitude seems rather naive, but, we were young and thought we knew the answers to everything...

[Webstral]

Perhaps the Australian version of Red Dawn should be called Crescent Moon Rising.

Webstral

[headquarters]

I hear you .No critisizm intended whatsoever of you guys.
I just wanted to point out that our experiences has taught us not to trust the military to protect us - thats why we have had enthusiastic conscription and gusn in every house for 50 years ..Thats all coming to an end now ,with the increased focus on assymetrical warfare and operations abroad to quell the insurgencies in the sands and the Hindukush.

As you say - we thought the same thing back in the 90s when we were young and running our guns on the tundra up north .We were told ( unofficially )that our gear and resources were for two purposes :

start a shooting match so that no political solution would leave us in any diplomatic capacity aligned with the invading Ruskies

hold out for 14 days to allow the US- ,Roya-l,Konglichje- Marines and the Canucks to get here and push the communist aggressors out into the North Sea.
I believe we also had Bundeswehr and Italian Alpini alotted to our sector if the big one went off.

Of course -it was all winding down then, and everything was sort of in a vacuum .No idelogically motivated superpower enemy at our border anymore ? huh?

I still believe in conscription and that our military should be geared towards keeping our soverignity intact on our home turf .But I dont feel good about pulling out of all the shitholes either..

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

At the time we were reservists which was one of the reasons the hills were looking so good - home turf which some of us knew like the backs of our hands, not to mention our unit had suffered through quite a number of years of cutbacks in funding - we didn't think we'd be a priority to receive ammo, weapons, body armour (not that it was all that common then), and everything else necessary for a modern battlefield.
Fortunately most of us had our own arsenals to bolster the worn out M60s and two dozen L1A1s in the armoury, not to mention access to plenty of explosives (much of it home made).

The way we saw it, the regular soldiers would be toast in a rather short space of time and the majority of civilians would either choose not to fight, or be rolled over in a heartbeat. Us poor reservists along with whoever we could find willing and able to listen to us had the best chance of resistance long term.

Nearly 20 years later that attitude seems rather naive, but, we were young and thought we knew the answers to everything...

[Webstral]

I think a fight between Australian, New Zealand, and East Timor forces on one side and Indonesia on the other would make an excellent techno-thriller. Mind, I'm not actually advocating such a fight. I'd just like to read some well-researched, well-written fiction on the subject.

Webstral

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Webstral

I think a fight between Australian, New Zealand, and East Timor forces on one side and Indonesia on the other would make an excellent techno-thriller.

I remember researching this in Jane's Fighting ships, and some other sources, back in the '90s, when I had better access to a university library. The only thing that I remember was that the navies were sort of well-matched in numbers, at least, but the air was much more in the Australians' favor.

Transport would be a huge problem for the invaders, as well as space.

Let's also not forget that if a war includes an English-speaking Navy, that side has almost never lost.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Transport would be a huge problem for the invaders, as well as space.

Agreed. So if we assume that the Indonesians are the aggressors (Why not? It's fiction.), the Indonesians would be aware of this. They would have to tailor their goals and methods to what they thought could be achieved. They would have to find some ways around anglophone air superiority. An outright invasion of Australia might be impossible for the immediate future, but perhaps our fictitious Indonesians are more interested in recapturing East Timor? ANZ forces come in on the side of the East Timorese. The Indonesians might plan to fight the air-sea battle in Indonesian waters. Perhaps some sort of build-up scheme would circumvent ANZ interdiction efforts, turning the fight into a slog-out on the ground. The Indonesians have a lot more bodies to throw into the fight, provided they can get them to the right place. The story could move along parallel tracks, with outnumbered ANZ and East Timorese grunts defending on the ground and ANZ air-naval assets attempting to secure control of the air and sea approaches to the island.

Of course, some means of politically neutralizing the US and the UK would have to be devised.

Webstral

[kato13]

For reference
Indonesian Naval Forces 2007

Navy ε45,000 (including Marines and Aviation)
EQUIPMENT BY TYPE

SUBMARINES
TACTICAL
SSK 2:
2 Cakra† each with 8 single 533mm TT with 14 SUT HWT

PRINCIPAL SURFACE COMBATANTS 28

FRIGATES 12
FFG 10:
6 Ahmad Yani each with 2 Mk 141 Harpoon quad (8 eff.) each with 1 RGM-84A Harpoon tactical SSM, 2 SIMBAD x2 manual each with Mistral SAM, 2 triple 324mm ASTT (6 eff.) each with Mk 46 LWT, 1 76mm gun, (capacity either 1 HAS-1 Wasp ASW hel or 1 NBO-105 (BO-105) utl hel)

3 Fatahillah each with 2 twin (4 eff.) each with 1 MM-38 Exocet tactical SSM, 2 B515 ILAS-3/triple 324mm ASTT (2-6 eff.) (not on Nala) with 12 A244/Mk 46, 1 2 tube Bofors 375mm (2 eff.), 1 120mm gun

1 Hajar Dewantara (trg) with 2 twin (4 eff.) each with 1 MM-38 Exocet tactical SSM, 2 x1 533mm ASTT each with SUT HWT, (capacity 1 NBO-105 (BO-105) utl hel)

FF 2:
2 Samadikun each with 2 triple 324mm ASTT (6 eff.) each with Mk 46 LWT, 1 76mm gun

CORVETTES 16
16 Kapitan Patimura† each with 4 x1 400mm ASTT, Twin each with SA-N-5 Grail SAM, 2 RBU 6000 Smerch 2 (24 eff.), 1 57mm gun
2 Sigma (first of class currently undergoing sea trials expected ISD late 2007; with second of class in build)

PATROL AND COASTAL COMBATANTS 37

PFM 4:
4 Mandau each with 4 MM-38 Exocet tactical SSM

PCT 4:
4 Singa each with 2 Single 533mm TT

PCO 8: 4 Kakap; 4 Todak

PCC 21:
13 Kobra KAL-35 each with 2 20mm gun

8 Sibarau

MINE WARFARE
MINE COUNTERMEASURES 12
MCC 3: 1 Pulau Rani; 2 Pulau Rengat

MSC 9: 9 Palau Rote†

AMPHIBIOUS

PRINCIPAL AMPHIBIOUS VESSELS
LPD 1: 1 Tanjung Dalpele (capacity 2 LCU)

LS LST 26:
1 Teluk Amboina (capacity 16 tanks; 200 troops);
12 Teluk Gilimanuk;
7 Teluk Langsa (capacity 16 tanks; 200 troops);
6 Teluk Semangka (capacity 17 tanks; 200 troops)

CRAFT 54 LCU

LOGISTICS AND SUPPORT 16:
AGOR 7
AO 2: 1 Arun; 1 Sorong
AOT: 2 Khobi
AR 1
ATF 2
RY 1 (Presidential Yacht)
Spt 1

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Webstral

Of course, some means of politically neutralizing the US and the UK would have to be devised.

That's easy. Just tell them what countries are involved and the Americans won't have a clue where to go, and the UK will justify non-involvement by claiming Ireland is flaring up again.

Seriously though Ireland might be a possible distraction for the English and if they've got troops still in the middle east, chances are they'll have nothing left to send to Asia.

The US on the other hand, well they couldnt' be bothered the first time around, why would they bother the second, especially if it's not being fought on Australian ground or directly threatening (thereby activating treaty obligations).

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The US on the other hand, well they couldnt' be bothered the first time around, why would they bother the second, especially if it's not being fought on Australian ground or directly threatening (thereby activating treaty obligations).

We're talking apples and oranges. A high-tempo conventional war involving Australian and New Zealand forces and instigated by Indonesia almost certainly would draw in the US. I don't know how many ground-pounders would be involved, but it's hard to imagine the US Navy sitting on the sidelines while the navies of Australia and/or New Zealand are duking it out with another regional power--unless fault could be found with the other ANZUS allies. This is the route that an aggressive, fictitious Indonesia would to take to convince the US to stay out of the fight. How that would be managed I don't know. Perhaps that's something our Australian cousins can divine best. I'd be open to suggestions that rise to a higher standard than bad-mouthing.

Webstral

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Webstral

I think a fight between Australian, New Zealand, and East Timor forces on one side and Indonesia on the other would make an excellent techno-thriller. Mind, I'm not actually advocating such a fight. I'd just like to read some well-researched, well-written fiction on the subject.

Webstral

One could add in some secret assistance to the ANZ forces by the flyers at Dale Brown's HAWC.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Targan

I don't think it takes a great leap of imagination to envisage a day where world conditions have deteriorated, rising sea levels eat away more and more of Indonesia's land mass, the military regain some of the power they have lost in the past 15 years and a more militant or (heaven forbid) radical Islamist government takes power. Right now Australia has powerful friends that would tend to scare off any conceivable military threat to Australia but that might not last forever. One of my big regrets is that if Australia and Indonesia ever enter into a serious stoush I'll be too old to do my part for my country in the manner my warrior spirit would want me to. I'll just have to find a sneakier way to have a go at the enemy.

Hello Targ, just to refocus on your initial question.

I like your idea but I don't see the rising sea level to be the trigger. If a good chunk of Indonesia gets underwater, that would probably be the case for Australia as well. However, some other catastrophy (multiple earthquake and repeated tsunamis, for exemple), could make people's life miserable. Then, that combined (as you say) with some radical leadership can drive people out. Australia would be a very tempting target.

Develop it, I would like to see more.