Potential Australian/New Zealand/East Timor/Indonesia conflict (was Red Dawn Remake

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Webstral

I think a fight between Australian, New Zealand, and East Timor forces on one side and Indonesia on the other would make an excellent techno-thriller.

I remember researching this in Jane's Fighting ships, and some other sources, back in the '90s, when I had better access to a university library. The only thing that I remember was that the navies were sort of well-matched in numbers, at least, but the air was much more in the Australians' favor.

Transport would be a huge problem for the invaders, as well as space.

Let's also not forget that if a war includes an English-speaking Navy, that side has almost never lost.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Transport would be a huge problem for the invaders, as well as space.

Agreed. So if we assume that the Indonesians are the aggressors (Why not? It's fiction.), the Indonesians would be aware of this. They would have to tailor their goals and methods to what they thought could be achieved. They would have to find some ways around anglophone air superiority. An outright invasion of Australia might be impossible for the immediate future, but perhaps our fictitious Indonesians are more interested in recapturing East Timor? ANZ forces come in on the side of the East Timorese. The Indonesians might plan to fight the air-sea battle in Indonesian waters. Perhaps some sort of build-up scheme would circumvent ANZ interdiction efforts, turning the fight into a slog-out on the ground. The Indonesians have a lot more bodies to throw into the fight, provided they can get them to the right place. The story could move along parallel tracks, with outnumbered ANZ and East Timorese grunts defending on the ground and ANZ air-naval assets attempting to secure control of the air and sea approaches to the island.

Of course, some means of politically neutralizing the US and the UK would have to be devised.

Webstral

[kato13]

For reference
Indonesian Naval Forces 2007

Navy ε45,000 (including Marines and Aviation)
EQUIPMENT BY TYPE

SUBMARINES
TACTICAL
SSK 2:
2 Cakra† each with 8 single 533mm TT with 14 SUT HWT

PRINCIPAL SURFACE COMBATANTS 28

FRIGATES 12
FFG 10:
6 Ahmad Yani each with 2 Mk 141 Harpoon quad (8 eff.) each with 1 RGM-84A Harpoon tactical SSM, 2 SIMBAD x2 manual each with Mistral SAM, 2 triple 324mm ASTT (6 eff.) each with Mk 46 LWT, 1 76mm gun, (capacity either 1 HAS-1 Wasp ASW hel or 1 NBO-105 (BO-105) utl hel)

3 Fatahillah each with 2 twin (4 eff.) each with 1 MM-38 Exocet tactical SSM, 2 B515 ILAS-3/triple 324mm ASTT (2-6 eff.) (not on Nala) with 12 A244/Mk 46, 1 2 tube Bofors 375mm (2 eff.), 1 120mm gun

1 Hajar Dewantara (trg) with 2 twin (4 eff.) each with 1 MM-38 Exocet tactical SSM, 2 x1 533mm ASTT each with SUT HWT, (capacity 1 NBO-105 (BO-105) utl hel)

FF 2:
2 Samadikun each with 2 triple 324mm ASTT (6 eff.) each with Mk 46 LWT, 1 76mm gun

CORVETTES 16
16 Kapitan Patimura† each with 4 x1 400mm ASTT, Twin each with SA-N-5 Grail SAM, 2 RBU 6000 Smerch 2 (24 eff.), 1 57mm gun
2 Sigma (first of class currently undergoing sea trials expected ISD late 2007; with second of class in build)

PATROL AND COASTAL COMBATANTS 37

PFM 4:
4 Mandau each with 4 MM-38 Exocet tactical SSM

PCT 4:
4 Singa each with 2 Single 533mm TT

PCO 8: 4 Kakap; 4 Todak

PCC 21:
13 Kobra KAL-35 each with 2 20mm gun

8 Sibarau

MINE WARFARE
MINE COUNTERMEASURES 12
MCC 3: 1 Pulau Rani; 2 Pulau Rengat

MSC 9: 9 Palau Rote†

AMPHIBIOUS

PRINCIPAL AMPHIBIOUS VESSELS
LPD 1: 1 Tanjung Dalpele (capacity 2 LCU)

LS LST 26:
1 Teluk Amboina (capacity 16 tanks; 200 troops);
12 Teluk Gilimanuk;
7 Teluk Langsa (capacity 16 tanks; 200 troops);
6 Teluk Semangka (capacity 17 tanks; 200 troops)

CRAFT 54 LCU

LOGISTICS AND SUPPORT 16:
AGOR 7
AO 2: 1 Arun; 1 Sorong
AOT: 2 Khobi
AR 1
ATF 2
RY 1 (Presidential Yacht)
Spt 1

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Webstral

Of course, some means of politically neutralizing the US and the UK would have to be devised.

That's easy. Just tell them what countries are involved and the Americans won't have a clue where to go, and the UK will justify non-involvement by claiming Ireland is flaring up again.

Seriously though Ireland might be a possible distraction for the English and if they've got troops still in the middle east, chances are they'll have nothing left to send to Asia.

The US on the other hand, well they couldnt' be bothered the first time around, why would they bother the second, especially if it's not being fought on Australian ground or directly threatening (thereby activating treaty obligations).

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

The US on the other hand, well they couldnt' be bothered the first time around, why would they bother the second, especially if it's not being fought on Australian ground or directly threatening (thereby activating treaty obligations).

We're talking apples and oranges. A high-tempo conventional war involving Australian and New Zealand forces and instigated by Indonesia almost certainly would draw in the US. I don't know how many ground-pounders would be involved, but it's hard to imagine the US Navy sitting on the sidelines while the navies of Australia and/or New Zealand are duking it out with another regional power--unless fault could be found with the other ANZUS allies. This is the route that an aggressive, fictitious Indonesia would to take to convince the US to stay out of the fight. How that would be managed I don't know. Perhaps that's something our Australian cousins can divine best. I'd be open to suggestions that rise to a higher standard than bad-mouthing.

Webstral

[Legbreaker]

Perhaps they were already involved elsewhere such as China, or Korea sparks up again?

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Perhaps they were already involved elsewhere such as China, or Korea sparks up again?

Or Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Legbreaker]

...or Mexico, or against those evil Canadians....

[boogiedowndonovan]

anyone out there remember a guy that went by the handle Ballistix? I think his real name was Damian Robinson. He had an order of battle for the invasion of Australia by Indonesia, including a provisional battalion of US troops stranded in Australia after their convoy was sunk. I can't recall if he had anything about why Indonesia invades.

as for motivations, my understanding is that in the 60's there was a low level conflict between Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia with Britain and Australia intervening on the side of Malaysia. That conflict was over the future of Malaysia and the sultanate of Brunei.

Suppose a radical Islamic faction takes power in Indonesia and not only talks of recovering all of Borneo, but also of establishing a Southeast Asian Islamic Emirate encompassing parts of Thailand, parts of the Phillipines and all of Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei. The radicalized government then provides covert support to equally radical Islamic groups based in Malaysia and Brunei. These groups then commit terrorist acts to destabilize the governments of Malaysia and Brunei, and as these two governments respond, Indonesia intervenes.

We could also throw in the East Timor situation. As Indonesian troops deploy to Borneo to assist the Islamic groups fighting the Malaysians and Brunei, they organize citizen's militias on East Timor to maintain order. The citizen's militias on East Timor act without impunity while enforcing order, which incites unrest among the pro-independence East Timorese.

The Australians intervene to help their neighbors, Malaysia and Brunei.

As far as US and UK involvement, at the request of the Sultan the UK does station a battalion of Ghurkas in Brunei. I can't recall what T2k canon says for the battalion of Ghurkas stationed in Brunei, if they deployed with the other Ghurkas to Hong Kong or elsewhere. As for the US involvement...oil. There are significant oil fields in or off the coast Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Also, consider the Straits of Malacca, which passes between Malaysia and Indonesia, huge amounts of ship traffic, including oil tankers use the Straits to cross from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.

I also read somewhere that New Zealand had an infantry battalion stationed in Singapore, so its possible this battalion would be involved. New Zealand would probably be involved anyways if Australia already is.

Now, a T2k US military straining to fight in Central Europe, the Middle East and Korea, wouldn't be able to dedicate many resources to fight a radicalized Islamic Indonesia, but I think they would devote something to protect a source of petroleum as well as a major supply line. Plus, we're the good guys.

Anyways, thats what I use in my campaign. What do you think? Too far fetched? I don't have my books in front of me, but doesn't T2k V2.0 have the Australians and Indonesians fighting over Papua New Guinea, and Merc 2000 has the Australians occupying Indonesia?

ps. Kato, maybe its time to split this out from the Red Dawn Remake thread?

[pmulcahy11b]

Don't forget the Indonesian/Canadian conspiracy!

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

anyone out there remember a guy that went by the handle Ballistix? I think his real name was Damian Robinson. He had an order of battle for the invasion of Australia by Indonesia, including a provisional battalion of US troops stranded in Australia after their convoy was sunk. I can't recall if he had anything about why Indonesia invades

I think his page can still be found via the internet wayback machine but I don't know where to look. I'll ask some friends who are more inclined to save old web addresses.

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

as for motivations, my understanding is that in the 60's there was a low level conflict between Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia with Britain and Australia intervening on the side of Malaysia. That conflict was over the future of Malaysia and the sultanate of Brunei.

Suppose a radical Islamic faction takes power in Indonesia and not only talks of recovering all of Borneo, but also of establishing a Southeast Asian Islamic Emirate encompassing parts of Thailand, parts of the Phillipines and all of Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei. The radicalized government then provides covert support to equally radical Islamic groups based in Malaysia and Brunei. These groups then commit terrorist acts to destabilize the governments of Malaysia and Brunei, and as these two governments respond, Indonesia intervenes.

We could also throw in the East Timor situation. As Indonesian troops deploy to Borneo to assist the Islamic groups fighting the Malaysians and Brunei, they organize citizen's militias on East Timor to maintain order. The citizen's militias on East Timor act without impunity while enforcing order, which incites unrest among the pro-independence East Timorese.

The Australians intervene to help their neighbors, Malaysia and Brunei.

Indonesia has had plans for quite some time (since the 1950s at least) for expanding its land, simply because they have so many people on so little ground but also for other more 'empire building' reasons. They've not needed another excuse to believe that all of Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, parts of Thailand, all of Timor & Papua New Guinea and also a significant chunk of Australia should be part of the greater Indonesian empire. They need "living room" and resources and they claim Australia is part of Asia and should be Asian, not European.
And quite frankly, there's plenty of people in power in Indonesia who have hated Australia for quite some time because they see us as being the remnants of the old 'white' imperialist regimes

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

As far as US and UK involvement, at the request of the Sultan the UK does station a battalion of Ghurkas in Brunei. I can't recall what T2k canon says for the battalion of Ghurkas stationed in Brunei, if they deployed with the other Ghurkas to Hong Kong or elsewhere. As for the US involvement...oil. There are significant oil fields in or off the coast Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Also, consider the Straits of Malacca, which passes between Malaysia and Indonesia, huge amounts of ship traffic, including oil tankers use the Straits to cross from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.

I also read somewhere that New Zealand had an infantry battalion stationed in Singapore, so its possible this battalion would be involved. New Zealand would probably be involved anyways if Australia already is.

Now, a T2k US military straining to fight in Central Europe, the Middle East and Korea, wouldn't be able to dedicate many resources to fight a radicalized Islamic Indonesia, but I think they would devote something to protect a source of petroleum as well as a major supply line. Plus, we're the good guys.

Anyways, thats what I use in my campaign. What do you think? Too far fetched? I don't have my books in front of me, but doesn't T2k V2.0 have the Australians and Indonesians fighting over Papua New Guinea, and Merc 2000 has the Australians occupying Indonesia?

Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the UK & USA all have defence treaties regarding this region so it shouldn't really be all that difficult to invoke the clauses needed for military action once the Indonesians commit any act of aggression to a treaty member

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

ps. Kato, maybe its time to split this out from the Red Dawn Remake thread?

I agree, there are some other threads I recall dealing with this issue somewhere here in the forum so perhaps if someone can find the links we can split this part into a new thread with links to the other relevant threads?