T2K Today: Korea

[Raellus]

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South? I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though? Would China intervene on its behalf?

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

[Webstral]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

[cavtroop]

Originally Posted by Webstral

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

Funny you bring this up, I was just thinking about this the other day.

As Webstral said, casualties would be horrific - on a scale not seen since, well, the last Korean war. I have no idea where the US would get the manpower to fight it - anyone not locked up in Iraq/AFG are either winding down from a recent deployment, or gearing up for the next. I guess those guys would go, and the poor guys currently in Iraq/AFG would be in for a long haul.

No question the world markets would tank - EU is on the edge now anyways. And I cant even begin to imagine what Chinas response would be. They'd be getting hammered by the world economy collapsing (who would buy their products?).

[Jason Weiser]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

[Frank Frey]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

Out Here,
Frank Frey

[HorseSoldier]

I also agree -- PRC has a vested interest in keeping Korea from going into a serious melt down, which would be bad for business. I'd think they'd pull the plug.

Without massive Chinese logistical support, I don't think the NK military could make much of a go of an attack on the South. If the defenders could hold the line against the first surge from the North, that'd pretty much be the end of it, from a strategic perspective. Might not be much comfort to guys on the line fighting while North Korea is effectively dead on its feet, but risk of another Pusan perimeter and all would be gone.

Big question is what would happen if/when ROK/US/etc or Chinese troops tried entering North Korea during a conflict -- would the populace start tearing down the Stalinist monuments and decorations, or would true believers head to the hills to fight on? (Or some of both.) What the NK regime might do with their WMD programs is another scary one.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Frank Frey

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

It seems like the PRC is always dragging its feet when it comes to economic sanctions against NK. I'm not sure the PRC wants a unified, democratic, capitalist Korea right next door. I'm not sure it would want a totalitarian, communist Korea next door either. It'd be great if the PRC took care of the NK problem for us but it would only create other, possibly larger problems, for all of the players in the region (including the U.S.).

What do the Chinese know that we don't?

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Originally Posted by Webstral

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

Plus, where would Mom get spare parts for her Hyundai?

Seriously, this would be a huge mess indeed. I have an interest in following the two Koreas, my father was stationed at Camp Casey in 1955/56 and my Uncle Chuck was a paratrooper for the 101st in the Korean War.

Chuck

P.S. As to car parts, there are third party vendors.

[headquarters]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South? I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though? Would China intervene on its behalf?

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

I have sort of an answer - to involve another major power could happen by accident .

Pardon my forgetfulness - but I did see some T2K scenarios based on another Koraen war on the internet - " something Dragon something " - I just cant remember where and who has written it.
Not very helpful..

As for in game scenarios - and of course - this is only meant as a suggestion to a " timeline " and NOT intended as a political comment of any sort nor is it in any way intended to anger any particular group -save possibly the criminals in Pyongyang

What about a tit for tat scenario where the border skirmishes that the Norks love go wrong , and serious shooting starts .( there are so many border incidents on land,in the air and at sea that it resembles assymetrical warfare already any tangible escalation might trigger this incident in RL).

The instability of the Nork leadership and circumstance leads to "the Sea of Fire Scenario" ,where the Norks shoot Seoul and environs to smitherens and kill app 1000 000 ROK citizens ,crippeling the countrys economy , and in an already hampered global economy,trigger a downward spiral that rapidly leads to major instability in the industrialized world.(Think Greece only on a larger scale ).

The ongoing barrage in Seoul ( stopping it with conventional weapons might take weeks or months ) and major raids -possibly coupled by some surprise defeats for the ROK/US forces in the conventional war adds to the doom and gloom and whips up a frenzy in public opinion .

This in turn leads to a perception of the legality of answering with tactical nuclear weapons -which in turn leads to a well planned and executed infiltration attack on the US by Nork agents using some sort of WMDs and devestating attacks on critical infrastructure and symbolic targets - if indded it wasnt already in the works once the war went loud at the .38th parallell.

To involve any of the other major powers against the US would take some conjuring imho - but the terrorist route that 2013 has taken might be one approach - possibly with a powerful super villain faction not aligned with the official goverment in Beijing or Moscow or indeed Riyadh as the cloacked force behind the attacks,backing a faction that takes advantage of the chaos and open up a second front against the West..If this is discovered by any allied intelligence agency I dare say the mess would be of such proportions that only blowing the kitchen up will suffice as a cleaning operation .

A lot of ifs and maybes - I know .

[pmulcahy11b]

This a tangent, but I always thought that a good name for a Korea Sourcebook would be Morning Calm -- the full name of Korea (can't remember the full name of Korea, though) means "Land of the Morning Calm."

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

This a tangent, but I always thought that a good name for a Korea Sourcebook would be Morning Calm -- the full name of Korea (can't remember the full name of Korea, though) means "Land of the Morning Calm."

I think that's a brilliant suggestion...

[Jason Weiser]

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news...-95004154.html

http://www.informationdissemination.net/

The one about the Nork midget subs is particularly enlightening.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china...h-korea-2010-5

And this short piece, says a lot when the Chinese are that nervous.

The links keep coming: This paragraph is especially enlightening:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7138002.ece

A US aircraft has been sent from the Japanese island of Okinawa to spy on the North, and the Japanese government has been informed of an unusually high level of troop movements on the northern side of the inter-Korean border, The Times learnt today. Meanwhile, Pyongyang announced that it will nullify a communications arrangement set up to prevent conflict between the two countries’ navies.

[pmulcahy11b]

I'm watching the crawler under Obama's press conference on MSNBC right now -- the Chinese say they're going to join the US and South Korea in condemning North Korean actions as of late. Interesting.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I think that's a brilliant suggestion...

It does have sort of an ironic touch in a T2K world.

[Jason Weiser]

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...052701263.html

Looks like we're really paying attention....Watchcon 2. And that a/c from Okinawa? Probably Rivet Joint or whatever they're calling her now.

[headquarters]

Just thought I would add a few laughables to the mix :

http://askakorean.blogspot.com/2010/...ean-jokes.html