T2K Today: Korea

[Jason Weiser]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

[Frank Frey]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

Out Here,
Frank Frey

[HorseSoldier]

I also agree -- PRC has a vested interest in keeping Korea from going into a serious melt down, which would be bad for business. I'd think they'd pull the plug.

Without massive Chinese logistical support, I don't think the NK military could make much of a go of an attack on the South. If the defenders could hold the line against the first surge from the North, that'd pretty much be the end of it, from a strategic perspective. Might not be much comfort to guys on the line fighting while North Korea is effectively dead on its feet, but risk of another Pusan perimeter and all would be gone.

Big question is what would happen if/when ROK/US/etc or Chinese troops tried entering North Korea during a conflict -- would the populace start tearing down the Stalinist monuments and decorations, or would true believers head to the hills to fight on? (Or some of both.) What the NK regime might do with their WMD programs is another scary one.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Frank Frey

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

It seems like the PRC is always dragging its feet when it comes to economic sanctions against NK. I'm not sure the PRC wants a unified, democratic, capitalist Korea right next door. I'm not sure it would want a totalitarian, communist Korea next door either. It'd be great if the PRC took care of the NK problem for us but it would only create other, possibly larger problems, for all of the players in the region (including the U.S.).

What do the Chinese know that we don't?

[Jason Weiser]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

[Dogger]

I Remember all the doom predictions about Saddam's "million man army" in Gulf War I. How they were a bunch of "hardened combat veterans" after years of war against Iran etc etc. We saw how that went.

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

I'm not sure of the state of the SK Army, but I'm sure it's 1000% better than it was in 1950. Add to all this the fact that I think the Allies would in short order control the skies over NK and that the NK forces will probably be in the field en masse and thus be subject to all the punishment such forces suffer when caught out in the open.

Also, there's very little possibility of a massive 'sneak attack' this time with SAT sitting overhead all day everyday. And should the Dear Leader get stupid enough to lob missiles at Japan...I'm not so sure they would sit this one out.

I'm also not to worked up about and WMD from NK being used outside of the Korean Peninsular, we have Ticonderoga class cruisers that now have the capability of -at least- shooting at outbound ICBMs and there's the ABM sites in Alaska that have again scored -at least some- hits on test targets that might head for the US West Coast...and any NK aircraft trying to make some kind of 'bomb run' on Japan or Okinawa would be lit up by Allied aircraft/navy ships long before they got anywhere IMO.

Yes, from a manpower POV the US would be challenged in the opening phase of combat, however air assets could easily be shifted from the ME and possibly offset NK numbers on the ground until greater forces arrived.

This is of course just my opinion on all this.

[pmulcahy11b]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Dogger

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

IMHO, the Chinese govt is looking for an excuse to take the US down a peg. Just imagine the following scenario.

The NK's invade SK. They probably could take Seoul (Less than 40 klicks from frontier.)

USA Air Force out of Japan and US Navy swarm NK Air Force, then turn the attention of the B-52's on the NK Army

As the NK casualty rate climbs China joins in. Not w/ military, with economics. Demand FULL PAYMENT of all US debt China owns. Payment due in GOLD, or diamonds or other form of permanent value. US Bankrupts in less than 20 days....

[Cdnwolf]

Interesting that in my timeline for Twilight 2013, I have North Korea launching nukes at the south and Guam, Japan. Also people forget that one corner of North Korea touches Russia too... so they have an interest in that part of the world too.

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

It would be the end of NK.

[Matt W]

Originally Posted by Raellus

What do the Chinese know that we don't?

The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)
http://alturl.com/ve28

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Matt W

The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

Wow. I'd never heard of Rajin before. That would explain a lot. No wonder the Chinese are willing to sleep with the enemy.

As for demanding immediate and full payment of U.S. debts to China, it's a horrifying thought (and a great reason to pay down the defecit), but unlikely to occur since it would bankrupt China's biggest customer. There must be another, more subtle way to hurt our economy without completely destroying it.

[Jason Weiser]

Gotta agree with Rae,
The Chinese and the US are locked into an economic version of MAD. Neither country can survive without the other now, at least not economically. This port notwithstanding, the Russians can't get into a war with the Chinese over this. The Russian army may be great for kicking the snot out of Georgia, but taking on the PLA? I don't think so. The Russian plan for war with China? Go nuclear fast. The problem of Raijin gets solved if there's a Korean presence period. Doesn't matter whether that's Nork or ROK. Something tells me the PRC's making the same calculus now. The PRC doesn't want to stay in NK if it comes to that. Probably go in, smash the NKPA, arrest or kill the Kims and cut a deal with the ROKs, then make sure the US goes home and/or doesn't base troops north of the old 38th Parallel. If all that happens, I can't see the PRC thinking this would be a bad thing.