*Post*-TDM armor production.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

What, on any level, would occur?

I'm guessing little to none, and the "little" would constitute more "building" technicals (clearing out local dealerships of H2s and H3s and hauling 'em down to whatever passes in the state as an armory for repair/stripping and arming) and cobbling together vehicles out of what was left over of kits or Anniston-bound repair cases.

Your thoughts, all?

[Abbott Shaull]

I think whatever production factories that weren't wiped out and still had parts would continue for the time being to product until they either ran out of parts, which under the circumstances wouldn't take long. As you get further from TDM, even the refits would stop due to cost/lack of getting vehicle to depot to repairs and spare parts.

[Legbreaker]

I agree. Once the ready supply of materials is exhausted, the only "production" carried out would involve stripping damaged vehicles and fixing up others or cobbling together makeshift substitutes.

[Arrissen]

There must be places/ countries in the world largely unaffected by the war who make AFV's besides France and Mexico (for a time), any thoughts?

[HorseSoldier]

Well besides France, Japan survives largely intact and has domestic production for their more or less Leo 2 knock off and other AFVs. I see them being movers and shakers all over the Pacific trying to keep themselves afloat in terns of fuel, food and other essentials but suspect they'd switch their production over to some cheaper light tank -- they mostly need fire support for COIN sort of stuff and holding key facilities that is fairly easy to ship and cheap to keep running.

[Legbreaker]

Of course Japan does have that pesky constitutional issue with not sending military outside their own boundaries. They <i>may</i> be able to produce a few vehicles, but only provided they can get the raw materials from elsewhere, and EMP hasn't fried their energy production capabilities as it does elsewhere on the planet.

Note also that nukes were first used relatively close to Japan in China many months before continental US felt their heat, and continued to be used for quite some time.

[Arrissen]

Well that's true about Japan, but I think that once the nukes fly all bets are off and they could do whatever the hell they like. Besides the only reason they weren't "allowed" to deployed O/S was because of US policy/ enforcement after WWII, who having seen how very frightening and naughty they can be, decided that it was probably best if they just stayed home and did what they were told. Kind of like a punk kid who's been grounded. And, you know they sure know how to bounce back.

What about South America? Is there much info about what happened there in T2K? A few countries there make AFV's.

[Legbreaker]

I wouldn't write off the Japanese reluctance to deploy abroad. Look at what happened when a medical unit was sent to the middle east a couple of years ago - it almost brought down the government even though they weren't combat troops but there for humanitarian reasons.

No, Japanese troops would remain firmly within Japanese borders unless something absolutely catastrophic occurred.

This isn't to say their produce wouldn't be exported or that western units wouldn't be welcome to spend R&R in the country (while transportation to and fro was still possible).

[HorseSoldier]

Once the nukes fly I think the Japanese constitution's restrictions on expeditonary military operations goes out the window fast -- but not so much in the sense of them trying to invade much of anywhere so much as establishing defended trading enclaves, piracy suppression at sea, and expeditionary work on land against warlords and such who get in the way. Just to feed the nation's population at present levels requires they continue to be food importers, fuel is obviously a desperate essential and all sorts of other raw materials are likewise going to have to come in from overseas. The JSDF is going to get pressed into service fighting to keep trade functional in the Pacific Rim, more a la the USMC's pre WW2 banana campaigns than the Greater East Asia Coprosperity Redux.

And they're inherently going to be overstretched in that role, so I see them trying to tie their efforts into some sort of coalition with stable friendly governments and pseudo governments that provide patches of stability like the surviving Australian government, New Zealand, the US garrison on Hawaii and the US/Canadian enclaves in the Pacific Northwest.

I could see them playing ball with the Soviet remnants in North America and elsewhere, though in my personal take on the situation in Alaska circa 2001, I have the Japanese occupying the Cook Inlet oil fields south of Anchorage (not as impressive as the North Slope, but not dependent in the pipeline) and garrisoning it with about a brigade -- one JGSDF battalion plus American mercenaries recruited out of Korea. But I see that as kind of about as heavy as they rollon foreign deployments, with more common stuff being a platoon or company here and there at trading posts or as ships troops, and the AK deal not being the only use of stranded ex-pat mercenaries. (which also seems like a cool potential campaign idea for PCs).

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

No, Japanese troops would remain firmly within Japanese borders unless something absolutely catastrophic occurred.

Something MORE catastrophic than World War III?

IMO, I was surprised that Japanese forces haven't appeared to assist the Chinese in Manchuria vs. the Soviets, or replaced/reinforced the US forces in Korea in 1998.

AFAIK, their navy should be intact, and I can't recall if they were nuked much or not. If they have armor production facilities, they would need steel & other components, which would have to be bought from... China? or wherever their peacetime sources were. Selling that armor to the US and shipping it to either the Korean or California fronts seems like a winner of an idea in 1998 or 1999.

Regarding them being major regional players, I quite agree. If they are undamaged, they could certainly make a stab at being the power of the Pacific, as long as they can keep the oil flowing.

Anyway, back to armored production, I do recall from reading the nukes list that the Lima, Ohio plant for making M1's is near the top of the list. I don't recall where the Bradley/Devers AMGeneral plant is.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

If we go with the RDF/LT (LAV-75 and variants - that's a wonderful thread that got resurrected) as being produced by AAI primarily (which we can: they're the ones who proposed it back in the 80s) then the production facilities are just north of Baltimore, 60mi. north of DC. They might (MIGHT) be OK. But probably not.

[Abbott Shaull]

Brazil and South Africa come to mind as arms exporters.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Something MORE catastrophic than World War III?

IMO, I was surprised that Japanese forces haven't appeared to assist the Chinese in Manchuria vs. the Soviets, or replaced/reinforced the US forces in Korea in 1998.

AFAIK, their navy should be intact, and I can't recall if they were nuked much or not. If they have armor production facilities, they would need steel & other components, which would have to be bought from... China? or wherever their peacetime sources were. Selling that armor to the US and shipping it to either the Korean or California fronts seems like a winner of an idea in 1998 or 1999.

Regarding them being major regional players, I quite agree. If they are undamaged, they could certainly make a stab at being the power of the Pacific, as long as they can keep the oil flowing.

Anyway, back to armored production, I do recall from reading the nukes list that the Lima, Ohio plant for making M1's is near the top of the list. I don't recall where the Bradley/Devers AMGeneral plant is.

The one thing about Japan is getting raw materials after TDM.

[dragoon500ly]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Something MORE catastrophic than World War III?

IMO, I was surprised that Japanese forces haven't appeared to assist the Chinese in Manchuria vs. the Soviets, or replaced/reinforced the US forces in Korea in 1998.

AFAIK, their navy should be intact, and I can't recall if they were nuked much or not. If they have armor production facilities, they would need steel & other components, which would have to be bought from... China? or wherever their peacetime sources were. Selling that armor to the US and shipping it to either the Korean or California fronts seems like a winner of an idea in 1998 or 1999.

Regarding them being major regional players, I quite agree. If they are undamaged, they could certainly make a stab at being the power of the Pacific, as long as they can keep the oil flowing.

Anyway, back to armored production, I do recall from reading the nukes list that the Lima, Ohio plant for making M1's is near the top of the list. I don't recall where the Bradley/Devers AMGeneral plant is.

Considering that Japan has to import virtually all of its raw material, I think a good case could be argued for them siting naval bases to cover critical areas, of course, this would require troops to protect the bases, etc. This would, in turn, mean that they would try to coordinate with local governments, reinforcing them with military and economic aid.

[Abbott Shaull]

I also think the M1 Plant in Warren, was also a target which in the all the timelines would still be producing M1s. Gee to think one of the place I applied to work sits literally outside of this former plant. So glad the cold war is over. Don't know if I could live that close to target rich environment after leaving Soo Locks area.

[dragoon500ly]

Dad was stationed at this little place right outside of Omaha....it was a running joke on how the survivors would not need any external light sources as we would all be glowing from the near misses!

[HorseSoldier]

Originally Posted by Abbott Shaull

Brazil and South Africa come to mind as arms exporters.

Twilight War South Africa . . . I'd think it largely implodes, but with some areas hanging on. Possibly even some industrial areas -- and SADF was already heavily in the market for lighter/cheaper AFVs that would be easier to keep in production if things were stable enough for it.

Brazil is pretty much the same -- both in terms of capability and questionable ability to keep their situation together enough to use it post-TDM. Very large agricultural sector in that country but it's mostly agribusiness for export and they're actually a net importer of even basic staples like rice and beans (food is comparatively very expensive in Brazil). In the Twilight timeline, Brazil may have been actively producing the EE-T1 Osorio MBT that didn't make it IRL at least in part due to the end of the Cold War.

Argentina also has the production line for the TAM light tank or medium tank and vehicles based on that hull.

Not sure if anyone else in South America had any even light AFV production capability, but may be forgetting something.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Anyway, back to armored production, I do recall from reading the nukes list that the Lima, Ohio plant for making M1's is near the top of the list. I don't recall where the Bradley/Devers AMGeneral plant is.

The Lima plant is the subject of a Challenge magazine adventure (#56, The Lima Incident). The manufacturing plant is described as being relatively intact (according to the article the plant is in the north east of the City and the nuke strike hit to the south west).

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Something MORE catastrophic than World War III?

Again I come back to the Japanese constitution and the near ousting of the government just a couple of years ago due to a military medical team being sent abroad... Just imagine what would happen if they sent actual combat troops, even if it was ostensibly to ensure resources security.
Oh, wait, wasn't Japan's aggression in the 1930's all about resources security...?

Originally Posted by BYB

Japan: The war with the Soviets over Sakhalin Island and the Kuriles brough Japan under nuclear attack in late 1997. Japanese industry was heavily damaged, and Tokyo all but destroyed. Martial law was never formally proclaimed, but most areas are governed by military officers who hold both civil and military positions. Each community counts as insular or independant, although they are all nominally under central control. The large cities are devastated, mostly from the civil unrest which followed the breakdown of the world economy and cessation of foreign imports.

I think that effectively puts Japan out of the running for post nuke tank production, and places about 95%+ of their naval capability on the sea floor. Japan's not projecting their power anywhere for any reason for quite some years to come.

Originally Posted by Abbott Shaull

Brazil and South Africa come to mind as arms exporters.

Originally Posted by BYB

Argentina/Brazil: The Argentinians attempted to reoccupy the Falklands/Malvinas after 1996, and the British were unable to spare more than a token force for the islands defence. Argentina itself withdrew when war broke out with Brazil in 1998, and a small scale exchange of low yield nuclear weapons between the two countries completed their slide into chaos. Central government in both countries has broken down, and both are now divided into semifeudal territories ruled by military juntas or local community governments.

Hmm, no, I don't see Brazil sparing a single military vehicle at any time in the late 90's and once Argentina and Brazil throw nukes at each other, they won't even be able to supply their own shattered forces.

South Africa on the other hand appears to have escaped the war fairly well, but has suffered significant civil upheaval. There is a chance they may have retained the relatively minor armour production capability they had in the 90's, but are unlikely to be in a position to be exporting anything.

[Tegyrius]

So, ah... where'd Argentina and Brazil get nukes to throw at each other?

- C.

[Arrissen]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

So, ah... where'd Argentina and Brazil get nukes to throw at each other?

- C.

I was wondering the same thing. Where is the info on that part of the world in the game?

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

So, ah... where'd Argentina and Brazil get nukes to throw at each other?

Shhhhh! Stop using logic!

Does it matter though? Perhaps in the alternate timeline that is T2K they developed them themselves (using ex nazi scientists), or bought them from a third party? It really doesn't matter that much though. The important thing is that they are shown to have possessed and used them against each other thereby destroying the industrial capability of the region.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Regarding them being major regional players, I quite agree. If they are undamaged, they could certainly make a stab at being the power of the Pacific, as long as they can keep the oil flowing.

According to the Traveller:2300 timeline that's exactly what happened. In the 100 years following the Twilight War Japan was the premier maritime power in the Pacific, and in their hemisphere the Japanese almost single handedly kept international trade going in the first two or three post-Twilight War decades.

[Arrissen]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Shhhhh! Stop using logic!

Does it matter though? Perhaps in the alternate timeline that is T2K they developed them themselves (using ex nazi scientists), or bought them from a third party? It really doesn't matter that much though. The important thing is that they are shown to have possessed and used them against each other thereby destroying the industrial capability of the region.

Well well, evil Nazi's huh? That's just great. Right when I thought I might have found us another source of AFV's to play with...Damn.

You know Brazil has 1.5 million Japanese and Argentina 3 million Germans.
Maybe they had their own covert nuclear arms race between radical ex-pats sending eachother suitcase nukes or something?! Cos I can't see the sun kissed and generally laid back people from either of these countries nuking anyone. Ever.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Arrissen

Well well, evil Nazi's huh? That's just great. Right when I thought I might have found us another source of AFV's to play with...Damn.

You know Brazil has 1.5 million Japanese and Argentina 3 million Germans.
Maybe they had their own covert nuclear arms race between radical ex-pats sending eachother suitcase nukes or something?! Cos I can't see the sun kissed and generally laid back people from either of these countries nuking anyone. Ever.

Well I always found interesting that GDW overlooked such gems of Arms exporters such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, and Singapore to name a few that come to mind. Isreali arms got mention in the Middle East and some of the Europe due to the closeness of the area. I recall some of the equipment surfacing here and there, but they were largely ignored. Granted in many cases the South Americans arms would of been in many cases comparable to stuff Cat B units of the Soviets and National Guard/Reserve unit in the GDW version 1 timeline.

Yet, after the TDM the contested battle zones of Europe would be much like Balkan region and the Middle East around Isreal where any thing that was a Tank at one time no matter how long ago our inferior of the best that you have, is still used as Tank or Tank Destroyer. Same with outdated APC or inferior APC/IFV would be press into service.

Of course, in most cases after the TDM many of these countries would only export for limited time, before they like many other would keep what is being produce for local use. Maybe a decade or two once nations starting to rebuild enough where they may be looking into spending money on defense, I can see these locations becoming where to go.

Just some thoughts.

[HorseSoldier]

At some point in the Cold War I think there is solid documentation that Brazil and Argentina had nuke programs but neither got to the point of fielding a workable weapon. I assume GDW was reflecting defense community rumor/speculation from that era when they talk about Argie and Brazilian nukes.

As for Japan in the BYB, I think it is a case of whoever wrote that being out of step with the t2k v1/ 2300AD situation in Japan. (Not the only place where it varies in subtle ways from stuff in v1 as well as the big goat rodeo disaster that is BYBs written timeline . . .)

[pmulcahy11b]

I have a feeling that, after a certain point, most of post-TDM armor manufacture will be things like armored gun trucks and the steel-plated HMMWVs that were seen so often in the Iraq War.

[Arrissen]

"At some point in the Cold War I think there is solid documentation that Brazil and Argentina had nuke programs but neither got to the point of fielding a workable weapon. I assume GDW was reflecting defense community rumor/speculation from that era when they talk about Argie and Brazilian nukes." - HorseSoldier

Yeah this seems to be the case. Check it out on Wikipedia - It was fairly covert too. Bit of a lazy way to write off all of South America though IMO.

[HorseSoldier]

I'd guess that the Brazilian-Argentine nuclear exchange in T2K probably amounted to anywhere from a pair of weapons to a handful exchanged tit-for-tat style.

Buenos Aires probably got nuked. Probably Porto Alegre on the Brazil side, which isn't a one-for-one trade, but it's the biggest city Argentina probably had effective means to strike. I'm picturing both sides using pretty crude weapons, possibly Manhattan programmed once their shooting war started rather than a pre-existing and super-hush stockpile. Means of delivery was probably pretty limited and yield likewise.

In a shorter version of the story -- probably not enough damage from the nukes or the ground war to take either nation seriously offline circa 2000.

That said, Brazil probably is fragmenting badly under its own weight circa 2000. I mentioned food being a big issue in Brazil -- if the government introduced some sort of program to encourage/force better self-reliance for basic food supplies in the '95-97 era before the world distribution networks just collapsed they might take the edge of that razor blade some. But agribusiness might have been raking in the profits as demand increased from the war, and gone the exact opposite direction.

Either way, you've got some serious cultural divides between agricultural north Brazil and industrialized south Brazil and the ticking timebombs of the favelas in every city where the population is barely getting by as is. If Brazil, at the national or regional level, is going to keep it together things will get real draconian real fast -- even by the standards of a nation where police death squads are considered "kind of inappropriate" and even non-extra legal police actions can involve support weapons up to grenade launcher and machine gun level without raising many eye brows.

Circa 2000 I see Brazil kind of on par with ca 2000 America, situation wise -- a couple different governments claiming legitimacy, reflecting that north-south split and probably the southern government slowly winning a war to settle things with the north. Most everything up the Amazon is just gone completely off the rails and collapsed. Depending on how you see the Arg-Bra war going, possibly a Brazilian occupation force sitting in Uruguay, or an Argentine occupation force doing the same, or maybe the two staring at each other across a no mans land somewhere in the middle of Uruguay.

Argentina is, I think, better set up for cultural cohesion and doesn't have quite the same urban mess Brazil has (though to be fair, I spent a lot of time in grad school dealing with Brazilian topics, none I can recall on Argentina, so I may just not be aware). Of course they also have a historical beef with Chile and the risk of additional security issues on that border.

(And the Falklands -- honestly, I don't see them making a play for Las Islas Malvinas during the confusion of WW3, and if they did, I think they'd be well served by catching a good spread of SLBMs or other nuclear ordnance from the UK, or even the US. Sic semper imbecillus , and no one appreciates the bratty kid who interrupts when mommy and daddy are trying to kill the neighbors.)

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I have a feeling that, after a certain point, most of post-TDM armor manufacture will be things like armored gun trucks and the steel-plated HMMWVs that were seen so often in the Iraq War.

Sad thing is since the war the M1 Plant in Warren, MI had been fully decommission. We are selling off our goods and not being able to replace them. Both Iraqi campaigns have give us causes to be too lax. But that is another story...

Yeah I have to agree with you it will be more like making today armor cars than any thing worthy of MBT. By 2000 even M113 armed with three M60s would cause people to have grave concern. *Shrug*