NATO chooses discretion

[Benjamin]

Hey guys, I'm back after a near two years absent. My son is getting of the age where he's interested in military gaming.

I had a thought. What if NATO designated a stop line, perhaps the Vistula? It's not unlikely that through radio intercepts, HUMINT or just nervousness, the fear that the USSR might go nuclear would be very real. Suppose NATO high command decides to stop its advance and tell German troops that they are in no way to advance across or even near the Soviet border. How do things go from there?

Does the war still go nuclear? Does China win or loose or does that theater see nukes fly? Does the USSR give up trying to keep Eastern Europe?

My feeling is that the Soviets realize their very precarious situation and look for a cease-fire in the west (probably using the good offices of Switzerland or Sweden) while at the same time going for a final push in China. Perhaps they agree to cut loose client states in Central America, The Middle East and Africa in return for an end to Western aide to China. Unfortunately, a Vistula stop line could lead to a divided Poland.

Any thoughts?
Benjamin

[Adm.Lee]

That's going to all depend on the unnamed, unknowable, leadership of the USSR in 1997. I doubt it would work.

Short term, a unified & hostile Germany holding half of Poland is not something the Soviets would want to see again, but if they feel it necessary to a western cease-fire in order to sort out the Chinese, then that might be do-able.

However, I think it's much more likely that the Soviets would give up space for an armistice in Siberia than in the West. It's not like the Chinese have the logistical capability to be knocking on Moscow's door in a few years. A powerful Germany, and an apparent defeat at the hands of the capitalists are both FAR more dangerous to Russia, the Soviet Union, and its Communist Party than Chinese Communists on the far side of the world. If the Chinese get more territory in the Far East, well, then, any American-Chinese alliance is less likely, as those two powers now have to sort out who's in charge in the Far East. (Not unlike what we're seeing in the past decade in real life?)

[RN7]

This raises all sorts of possibilities and is the Soviet Union's bête noire. Here we have the primary result of the end of the Second World War and the development of the Cold War turned on its head: A reunified and rearmed Germany occupying Poland and the Soviet Union being blackmailed into allowing it to keep Western Poland or face annihilation by American nuclear weapons.

Would the Soviets accept a German occupation of Western Poland and believe that NATO could restrain the Germans from attacking Russia in the future? I doubt it.

Why? Because the Soviets were paranoid in the extreme about German unification and the German military and with very good reason.

They won the Second World War but at huge cost. If America and Britain had not also been fighting against Germany would the Soviets have beaten Germany by themselves? Who knows.

During the Cold War the Soviet Union placed the largest concentration of its land and air forces outside of the Soviet Union in East Germany, and placed them there to fight West Germany.

The Soviet Union would not allow East Germany to develop an arms industry during the Cold War, despite the fact that East Germany was the Soviet Union's most reliable ally in the Warsaw Pact and that the East German Army was the only "allied "army that the Red Army actually trusted. And of course elements of the East German Army were in cahoots with the West Germans in planning German Reunification!!!

The combined German military at this time was enormous. As big as the US Army and arguably better equipped and trained, and also totally concentrated in Germany. http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=3253

The Kremlin and the Red Army would have been shitting a brick at the prospect of fighting it.

In 1997 a cadre within the militaries of West and East Germany decides to reunify Germany by itself. They do not consult the civilian government of West Germany (or East Germany) or do they inform any of their NATO allies including the United States about what they are up to. This doesn't say much for trusting the Germans.

Also as Germany is occupying Poland what is to stop it from reclaiming the historical German territory in Poland that was taken from it at the Potsdam Conference in 1945. The whole issue of Potsdam was a very sore subject for decades among the West Germans, they infact did not recognise East Germany or would have any relations with any country who did until the 1970's. Basically Silesia will become a German state once again as will parts of Prussia. How long before they decide to reclaim East Prussia by taking the Kaliningrad Enclave and the Baltic States?

How will other European countries react to this? France, Belgium and Eastern Europe need I say more! Would Britain be happy with Germany posing a threat to the Low Countries and the English Channel? The Italians left NATO and joined the Warsaw Pact and then invaded Austria and Bavaria. I'd say they would be worried.

Germany of course has no nuclear weapons, but what would now stop it from developing them. The military is in control of Germany not the civilian government. Germany has an advanced nuclear industry capable of manufacturing reactors, enriching uranium, and fuel fabrication and reprocessing. It had 19 nuclear reactors at this time and was a leading exporter of nuclear technology. German companies are major participants in uranium enrichment that develop gas centrifuge technology and control domestically developed nozzle enrichment technology. Given the fact of its Cold War position on the front line in any potential war in Europe and the fact that nuclear weapons were likely to be used on German territory by the Soviets and perhaps NATO as well, it is highly likely that the Germans undertook design work on a range of nuclear weapon types themselves. Germany has the technological base to support a nuclear weapons program and members of the West German government were proponents of acquiring German nuclear weapons. It is known that Germany has considered manufacturing nuclear bombs for civil engineering purposes. In the early 1970s a feasiblity study was conducted for a project to build a canal from the Mediterranean Sea to the Qattara Depression in the Western Desert of Egypt using nuclear explosives. This project proposed to use 213 bombs, with yields of 1 to 1.5 megatons detonated at depths of 100 to 500 m, to build this canal for the purpose of producing hydroelectric power!! Mad stuff but it highlights how easy the Germans thought they could develop their own nuclear weapons.

So what we have here is 1939 all over again without the Nazis and with nuclear weapons. And were not even talking about China and the Middle East.

[Bullet Magnet]

Originally Posted by RN7

The Italians left NATO and joined the Warsaw Pact and then invaded Austria and Bavaria.

I remember seeing the part of the Italians leaving NATO, and later invading Bavaria, but I do not remember ever seeing anything about them joining the Warsaw Pact. Where am I missing that from?

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Bullet Magnet

I remember seeing the part of the Italians leaving NATO, and later invading Bavaria, but I do not remember ever seeing anything about them joining the Warsaw Pact. Where am I missing that from?

Going Home, Survivors Guide to the United Kingdom and particularly Mediterranean Cruise make some reference to Italy in the Twilight War. It never states that Italy joined the Warsaw Pact but it does imply it.

From GDW Going Home Page 17.

Italian Folgore MD (900 men, 5 AFVs): Commanded by Tenente-Colonello (Lieutenant-Colonel) Roberto Falvi, and supplied by a DIA operation out of Vienna, the Folgore Division has been operating as anti-Soviet partisans since the disintegration of the Pact counteroffensive over the summer. A life-long Christian-Democrat, and long opposed to the socialist coalition which has ruled Italy in recent years, Falvi has always despised the Warsaw Pact, and regretted Italy's involvement with it. He was patriotic enough to obey orders, however, until conditions deteriorated. Now he and the remnants of his unit are slowly fighting their way back to Italy, trying to do as much damage to the Soviets as possible.

From Mediterranean Cruise Page 14

When Great Britain entered the war, Gibraltar became important once again. With France opting out and Italy openly hostile. With the entry of Italy and Greece into the war against NATO, Gibraltar was the only friendly naval base in the western Mediterranean that NATO had.

From Mediterranean Cruise Page 18

By mid-1997, the Turkish offensive against Romania was heavily opposed by Soviet forces from the north and Greek troops from the southwest. It became obvious that Turkey must soon have help of be forced to withdraw. NATO aid to Turkey brought Italy into the war, in accordance to its treaty obligations, on 1 July 1997.

That treaty obligation was obviously a defence treaty with the Warsaw Pact.

[Benjamin]

While a reunified Germany would scare the Soviet Union, there are numerous reasons to believe an acceptable solution could be worked out.

In real life the Soviets allowed the Germany's to reunite and NATO to expand. They weren't happy with it but it wasn't worth risking nuclear war to prevent. The Soviet leadership knows that both the war in China and in Europe are going very poorly. Making a deal with NATO so as to concentrate on China could be seen as a good option.

I can see the Soviet Union (and France) demanding some concessions.

1) Germany can reunify and remain in NATO but it's current borders must be retained and further "reunification" renounced.

2) Germany shall at no time acquire nuclear weapons.

3) No German troops shall remain in Poland for an extended period of time.

4) US, British and Canadian forces can remain in Western Poland so long as Soviet troops remain in Eastern Poland. A withdrawal of Soviet forces must be met by a withdrawal of NATO forces.

5) When all foreign forces withdraw from Poland, Poland will be allowed to rearm but will remain a neutral state outside of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Given what occurred in OTL I'm unclear as to why the Twilight:2000 Soviet Union would become so reluctant to find a negotiated way out of a losing situation. The Germany of 1996 was not the Germany of 1941.

Benjamin

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

While a reunified Germany would scare the Soviet Union, there are numerous reasons to believe an acceptable solution could be worked out.

In real life the Soviets allowed the Germany's to reunite and NATO to expand. They weren't happy with it but it wasn't worth risking nuclear war to prevent. The Soviet leadership knows that both the war in China and in Europe are going very poorly. Making a deal with NATO so as to concentrate on China could be seen as a good option.

In real life the German Army didn't secretly plot German Reunification, hadn't taken control of Germany and occupied half of Poland.

Originally Posted by Benjamin

I can see the Soviet Union (and France) demanding some concessions.

1) Germany can reunify and remain in NATO but it's current borders must be retained and further "reunification" renounced.

2) Germany shall at no time acquire nuclear weapons.

3) No German troops shall remain in Poland for an extended period of time.

4) US, British and Canadian forces can remain in Western Poland so long as Soviet troops remain in Eastern Poland. A withdrawal of Soviet forces must be met by a withdrawal of NATO forces.

5) When all foreign forces withdraw from Poland, Poland will be allowed to rearm but will remain a neutral state outside of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Benjamin

NATO lost half of its membership over the issue of German Reunification in 1996. France (not in NATO but a member of the Atlantic Alliance) pulled out all of its garrison forces from West Germany after German Reunification and started a new power bloc with Belgium known as the Franco-Belgium Union.

1) Germany has already unified and has pushed all Soviet forces out of Germany and has invaded Poland. No remaining NATO member objected, in fact they all encouraged it.

2) Who will stop it? The Germans paid no regard to NATO during German Reunification and they have the technology to develop nuclear weapons by themselves.

3) Who will make them leave former German territories if they don't want to?

4) NATO is backing the pro-NATO Free Polish Congress so they are staying in Western Poland to reclaim Poland from communism

5) I just don't see this working now that Germany has reunified. It worked to a point with Austria and Finland after the Second World War, but Austria and Finland were always pro-western and their neutrality didn't mean much when the Twilight War started. NATO I think was the first to invade Finland, and Austria was invaded by Italy and then the Soviets. A weak Poland sandwiched between a nationalist military controlled Germany and Russia and occupying former German territory is just too tempting.

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Given what occurred in OTL I'm unclear as to why the Twilight:2000 Soviet Union would become so reluctant to find a negotiated way out of a losing situation. The Germany of 1996 was not the Germany of 1941. Benjamin

It seem the logical thing to do but do the Soviet trust the Germans?

Germany in 1996 is not the Germany of 1941 but the geopolitical situation (in central Europe) is similar. Also the Germans have rearmed, have successfully pushed the Soviets out of Germany and Western Poland and are backed by the armed forces and the resources of America, Britain and the other remaining NATO powers. The Soviet are not capable of defeating the German Army in Europe (excluding using nuclear weapons) now that it is backed by America. The German economy is also controlled by the military, its factories are churning out weapons and there is little the Soviets can do about it and I would be almost certain that Germany has since 1996 also accelerated its nuclear weapons programme. Unless the Soviets are prepared to use nuclear weapons against NATO which is what they did in twilight 2000 then the Germans are holding all the cards.

[LoneCollector1987]

Originally Posted by RN7

2) Who will stop it? The Germans paid no regard to NATO during German Reunification and they have the technology to develop nuclear weapons by themselves.
3) Who will make them leave former German territories if they don't want to?

May I play Advocatus diaboli?

In the T2k timeline Germany has the possibility of using the allied arguments against them. In real life with the 2+4 treaty these arguments are no longer valid.

I refer to
1) Berlin Declaration of 1945
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Declaration_(1945)

and
2) Atlantic Charter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Charter

According to the first, Germany continues to exist within the borders of December 31st, 1937.
And according to 2) borders may change not be force.

The eight principal points of the Charter were:
2) territorial adjustments must be in accord with the wishes of the peoples concerned;
3) all people had a right to self-determination;

And expelling people is against the Hague Conventions of 1907. And I believe that the Germans of the Eastern territories (East-Prussia, Silesia etc) 1945 would never vote for becoming citizens of Russia or Poland.

So IF we accept that the Germans are willing to go to war over 7 ethnic Germans from Silesia (what the real Germany of our timeline would never do or even think about it) than we could say that the Germans of the T2k timeline would use the Declaration, the Charter and the Convention to claim that they are just restoring the borders to the rightful "status quo ante bellum".


Nearly OT but important!
We have a difference between the english and the german wikipedia regarding the Berlin Declaration. In the fine print but nevertheless.

English:
"The preamble of the declaration confirmed...the continued subsequent existence of a German national territory ...taken to be as defined on 31 December 1937, although subject to the four signatory powers ...authority that would shortly be exercised in the incorporation of eastern territories into Poland and the Soviet Union."

German:
"Eine Annexion war damit ausdrücklich nicht verbunden, die Entscheidung über die Grenzen ...Deutschlands oder eines Teil Deutschlands wurde für einen späteren Zeitpunkt angekündigt."
and
"und die „deutschen Grenzen nach dem Stande vom 31. Dezember 1937“ fortbestanden"

Rough translation: Germany was not subject to annexation, a decision about the borders ...for Germany and parts of Germany was postponed to a later date"
and
"the german borders continue to exist according to the date of December 31st, 1937."

[RN7]

And the post-war West German government also adhered to the Hallstein Doctrine until 1972 in regards to the legality of East Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallstein_Doctrine

And unlike the democratically elected and liberal West German government the German Army was nationalist. They were not Nazi's but they were strongly German nationalist.

Originally Posted by LoneCollector1987

So IF we accept that the Germans are willing to go to war over 7 ethnic Germans from Silesia (what the real Germany of our timeline would never do or even think about it) than we could say that the Germans of the T2k timeline would use the Declaration, the Charter and the Convention to claim that they are just restoring the borders to the rightful "status quo ante bellum".

Probably more than 7. According to Polish sources as many as one million former German citizens were granted Polish citizenship by 1950. How many were actually Germans, or Germans pretending to be Poles is unclear. In 2002 over 150,000 Poles declared German ethnicity over ten years after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. How many ethnic Germans actually lived in Poland before they were forbidden from travelling to Germany and the rest of Western Europe was undoubtedly far higher.

[Benjamin]

OK. The situation is different in T2K. I was looking for a longer conventional war scenario to game using NATO: The Next War in Europe.

Maybe I'll go with a Red Storm Rising or The War That Never Was scenario but continue it through the NATO counter offensive into Poland. The Naval War Game papers are pretty good for this kind of research.

I still think as rational actors the Soviet leadership could have convinced not to use nukes.

Another note regarding Germany. Much of the German populace sees a difference between the idea of "unification", bringing West and East Germany back together and the concept of "reunification", which to them is a restoration of the German nation to the 1937 borders. They aren't demanding border changes or anything like that, but they see a real difference in the terms that many foreigners (except the Poles) overlook.

Benjamin

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

OK. The situation is different in T2K. I was looking for a longer conventional war scenario to game using NATO: The Next War in Europe.

Maybe I'll go with a Red Storm Rising or The War That Never Was scenario but continue it through the NATO counter offensive into Poland. The Naval War Game papers are pretty good for this kind of research.

I still think as rational actors the Soviet leadership could have convinced not to use nukes.

Another note regarding Germany. Much of the German populace sees a difference between the idea of "unification", bringing West and East Germany back together and the concept of "reunification", which to them is a restoration of the German nation to the 1937 borders. They aren't demanding border changes or anything like that, but they see a real difference in the terms that many foreigners (except the Poles) overlook.

Benjamin

Go with the concept of a "proxy war" or regional conflict. None of the major powers want an escalation but everyone wants a favorable outcome. Because it is a "proxy war," the level of equipment will be limited (and possibly "last generation") and the players (who could be vetted Mercs or "Local Militia") would have greater autonomy. I would look at the "war" in The Ukraine or the UN-supported "operation" by Uganda and Kenya to purge Al Qaeda rebels from the African Union Regions (with fighting in southern Somalia, Uganda, The Central African Republic and Kenya) as inspiration.