Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)