Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by Targan

The Russian government must be sorely tempted to annex the Crimean Peninsula right now. Obviously they have no fear of the Ukraine, but the rest of the world wouldn't be happy about it. Then again, there's a couple of provinces of Georgia that are now part of Russia. No-one was prepared to do much about that.

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

It is interesting that T2013 had the statement that it did about the Ukraine.

My $0.02

Mike

[stormlion1]

Putin longs to reassemble the old USSR with himself at its head. This will not end well I think.

[.45cultist]

Still interesting for us, whether T2K2.2 or T2013(or a mix of the two).

[Olefin]

uh oh - hmm wonder if I should start stockpiling gas and ammo - especially since a bunch of Russians just stormed the Crimean Parliament building and raised the Russian flag

Twilight 2015 anyone?

[kalos72]

Good thing I already do...

This is scary stuff...

[Olefin]

I agree its scary - while I loved fighting my M1A1 across Poland and taking out several Russian AFV's in Texas to hold onto that oil platform I really dont have much desire to do it in real life

hmm - wonder how much that windmill to generate my own power will set me back?

[Cdnwolf]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

It is interesting that T2013 had the statement that it did about the Ukraine.

My $0.02

Mike

Although the Ukraine is a supplier of UN peacekeeping forces,
no other country comes to their aid. The massive refugee crisis in
Western Europe has many believing the Russian rhetoric. Once the
action in the Ukraine progresses from securing against a possible
nuclear threat to complete pacification, people in France and
Germany for instance side with the Russians. Many European media
outlets begin to portray this action as an expanded security action by
the Russians rather than an invasion. The politicians in Europe are
basically forced to abide by the wishes of their constituents. Russia’s
threat of the oil supply coming through the region into Europe
quiets those European politicians not swayed by the media or the
populace.
The U.S. also abstains from the conflict both militarily and
diplomatically. With no backing from the European members of the
UN Security Council and no willingness to go at it unilaterally, the
U.S. sits this one out. Although that doesn’t mean that U.S.-made
weapons and supplies don’t reach Ukrainian insurgents.

Again from Twilight 2013.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.

[stormlion1]

I think we will have an economic collapse long before we need to worry about an invasion. At that point we will only real have to worry about is Raiders, Government forces stealing stockpiled food, Gas, and ammo for their own use, and UN Intervention. Oh and don't forget the complete devaluing of the US Dollar, Possible Civilian disarmament and low ammunition stockpiles and power outages.

[RN7]

Putin is looking at a map of where ethnic Russians live outside of Russia. He sees the Crimea, the Eastern Ukraine, the entire north of Kazakhstan and parts of Belorussia and the Baltics states and pockets here an there in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

He then looks at a map of the old Soviet Union and sees that the areas were the Russians live are by and large the best parts of it. The oil fields and the space launching site at Baikonur in Kazakhstan are certainly of interest to Russia, and Russia shares a very long border with Kazakhstan who's population in about 40% Russian and Slav. But who wants the deserts and mountains were all the crazy Muslims live in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, and what use are Armenia and Georgia to Russia.

He's then thinking the Eastern Slavs in Belorussia and the Ukraine are really Russians, and to an outsider they might as well be as they share a similar language, religion and culture. Belorussia is now so cosy with Russia that it might as well be part of it, so that just leaves the Ukraine.

He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?

It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine

[Targan]

Events seem to be developing quickly: Ukraine: minister accuses Russia of 'armed invasion' in Crimea

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Targan

At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.

I think this analysis is pretty spot on.

Originally Posted by RN7

He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?

It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine

I would agree with pretty much all of this as well. If the Russians do take over the Crimea there might be a bit of tut tutting and finger wagging from some elements in the EU and that will be that. I can't imagine things will be any different in the US. Ukraine will be no different from Georgia if it comes down to a confrontation with Russia - left to its own devices by everyone else and having to make peace on Russia's terms.

[Schone23666]

These so-called "gunmen" that have conveniently seized all the government buildings in the Crimea sound a bit too professional and well-equipped, at least by witness accounts to be just another bunch of pro-Russian street hoodlums. So far they've issued little in way of any demands other than hoisting the Russian flag over the buildings, and one journalist that tried to ask them questions was purportedly answered with a flashbang grenade. Make of that what you will.

Putin is "former" KGB (does anyone REALLY leave any national/state security apparatus?) So of course he's schooled in the ways of how the good'ol Soviet Union used to be. With Russia regaining it's footing somewhat, and with him and his personality cult fully entrenched, I can't see why he wouldn't be a bit tempted to recapture those old "glory days". And sad thing is? As other posters already commented, there's not a lot anyone else is going to do about it.

To know history, is to know the future...

[Olefin]

I think Putin has made a big mistake here - if he tries to annex the Crimea he is looking at war with the Ukraine. And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

This could get very down and very dirty very fast.