T2K as Alternate History

[Raellus]

Although, when it was written in the mid-'80s, version 1.o Twilight 2000 was a speculative, potential future war scenario, it has since effectively become an alternative history. I've been thinking about other ways that that alternate history could have diverged from actual world history.

The most obvious ways the two timelines differ are the survival of the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain/Warsaw Pact and the continuation of the Cold War. What would the repurcussions of this continuation of the status quo be?

I've noticed that a lot of folks who use the v1.0 timeline keep the '91 Gulf War and the Balkans Wars of the '90s as part of the build up to the Twilight War. That's fine. Saddam was an unpredictable fellow and who knows whether he would or wouldn't have invaded Kuwait in the face of strong Soviet Bloc opposition. Perhaps he would have invaded anyway, but pulled out under strong Soviet diplomatic and economic pressure.

If the Gulf War didn't happen, one could argue that one of the major causes of today's "War on Terror" (U.S. bases and troops in the Muslim holy land of Saudi Arabia) would be removed.

As for the Balkans War, Yugoslavia, though technically non-aligned, was heavily infuenced by the Soviet Union, Serbian interests especially. Perhaps the Soviets could have prevented the breakup of the Balkans. It was in the USSR's best interest to maintain a strong, communist country in southern Europe.

Somalia. The Soviet Union had significant economic, political, and military influence in various parts of Africa. Somalia, I believe, fell under its sway, at least to a degree. Perhaps the Soviets could have prevented Somalia's collapse into anarchy.

Would the Soviets have pulled out of Afghanistan under a more hard-line government? This is a tough call. I would say yes. It was a bleeding ulcer and pulling out would have saved the Soviets money, men, and war material better used elsewhere. On the other hand, pulling out would resulted in regional destabilization that the Soviets likely would have perceived as given the potential to spill over into the ethically related, laregely Muslim southern Soviet republics. Still, if they were willing to take that risk in '89, they'd probably still take the chance in the Twilight Timeline.

What are your assessments? Anything to add?