YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I agree with you that many Mexicans harbor resentment towards the U.S., resentment that can be traced back to the 1848 war and even earlier to the Texas War of Independence. But the 1/2 of Mexico "stolen" by the U.S. did not have "all the cities and highways and industry in it".

How dumb do you think I am that I really believe the southwest of 1848 was filled with cities and highways and industry?

I was being sarcastic. When we "stole" the south-west it was a desolate wasteland, filled with hostile Indian tribes and governed in name only by Mexico City. Which means when we stole it is was STILL a desolate wasteland, filled with hostile Indian tribes, except now governed in name only by Washington D.C..

In my opinion, if Mexico had held onto the North American southwest, then the illegal immigrants would just be crossing the Arkansas River to get to the jobs and health care and education, instead of the Rio Grande.

What I was trying to point out is that some modern Mexican resentment over the 1848 war also stems from the fact that we developed our desolate wasteland and their desolate wasteland is still just... well, desolate wasteland. There is a serious inferiority complex that comes into play during relations between Mexico and the USA. In any TW2K alternative history, that inferiority complex could be manipulated into a popular political push for war (particularly AFTER the US has been nuked) so that Mexico can right all the wrongs it has suffered for the past 150 years! Hell! Maybe they push to start the war on the 150th anniversary of the War of 1848!

Hmmm... just checked.... war starts in 1846 and ENDs in 1848... of course maybe the date that holds the emotional impact is the date the humiliating Treaty of Guatalupe Hidalgo was signed: Feb. 2, 1848... 150 years later it's 02/02/98 and the US is nuked, soviet troops are in Alaska... maybe that's the date the Mexican government picks to release the report of Mexican refugees being killed on the US border? If they start getting people angry in February, that gives the Mexicans plenty of time to get the war rolling by summer.


A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

How dumb do you think I am

Wut?

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

How dumb do you think I am

Cool down guys. I don't think any offense was intended from both side.

By the way Raellus what you say about industries is right but when you report it to history, it is equally false.

You forgot one thing. In 1848, industries were rare all over the union anyway as the economy was still focusing on raw materials and agriculture. When California (along with "1/2 Mexico") was taken over by the future USA it brought along things that were as valuable as industries and technologies today:
- Very fertile areas, rich forests, mineral ressources including gold and many other things (These lands were potentially rich).
- Several spots that would soon become major ports on the Pacific and the first step toward US development in Asia.
- Similarly, a valuable connection to the entire American West Coast (the Panama Canal was not even dreamed of and the Cape Horn was a tricky route). That will prove more than important in 1876 with rail development.
...

However, I don't think it was stolen (of course, I understand that some Mexicans might feel that way).

Texas might indeed have been stolen (Ouch! I should be careful, there are plenty of Texas boys around, probably ready to bite at a small bouncing froggy ) as I have the feeling that anglo-saxon settlers did something similar to what the Albanian just did with Kosovo (with a main difference, nonetheless: Kosovo has been part of Serbia for centuries, not true for Texas with Mexico). Whatever, it was 200 years ago and it worked (What is a shame for Kosovo can be seen as brilliant for Texas IMO and depending on your point of view): nowadays, no doubt that Texas is to the Texans (with close ties to Mexico or we would not be eating Tex-Mex). In fact, these lands were never stolen from Mexicans, they were stolen from several American Indian People (by Mexicans and Anglo-saxons alike).

California (+Arizona, New Mexico...) is an entirely different matter and I retain the feeling that internal tensions within Mexico greatly favored its loss. Of course, Anglo-saxon settlers were again more than deeply involved into it but corrupt Mexican officials greatly helped them (also I'm not a specialist of that period). By the way, funny, I just found out that the Russians established a military outpost in northern California at that time. It didn't bring them far but it could have been interesting if things had turned differently.

Whatever, I have no doubt that without the taking over of the entire northern part of Mexico with no consideration for the Adams-Onis treaty signed in 1819 (but Spain was no more the actor two years later) allowed US to become what it is today. I'm convinced that without this political move, US would never have become a great power.

Best wishes from the Froggy

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

Cool down guys. I don't think any offense was intended from both side.

By the way Raellus what you say about industries is right but when you report it to history, it is equally false.

You forgot one thing. In 1848, industries were rare all over the union anyway as the economy was still focusing on raw materials and agriculture. When California (along with "1/2 Mexico") was taken over by the future USA it brought along things that were as valuable as industries and technologies today:
- Very fertile areas, rich forests, mineral ressources including gold and many other things (These lands were potentially rich).
- Several spots that would soon become major ports on the Pacific and the first step toward US development in Asia.
- Similarly, a valuable connection to the entire American West Coast (the Panama Canal was not even dreamed of and the Cape Horn was a tricky route). That will prove more than important in 1876 with rail development.
...

Good point, Moh. There certainly was/is economic potential in the regions annexed from Mexico. The problem was that the Mexican government was doing very little to exploit and develop that potential. To the Mexican government, AZ, NM, TX, CA, etc. were bothersome frontier areas, difficult and costly to manage and administer. They took the easy way out by allowing/encouraging American settlers to move into the areas and ended up paying the price once the settlers became entrenched and started considering the region to be an American suzereignty.

It's sort of ironic because in a sense, the opposite is happening now. American citizens tend to disdain certain lines of work (agricultural and landscaping, construction, service industries, etc.) and so basically invite Mexican nationals to migrate, legally and illegally, in order to fill those jobs. Then many American citizens complain about the social and economic costs associated with this migration, feeling that the Mexicans are "taking over" parts of the country. I guess that's Karma.

And SGlancy, please, I was not trying to insult your intelligence. I simply did not detect your intended sarcasm.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Raellus

And SGlancy, please, I was not trying to insult your intelligence. I simply did not detect your intended sarcasm.

When you gently corrected the obvious fallacy in my statement, it came off to me like you were talking down to the village idiot. That was just my interpretation, not how you wrote it.

Clearly I have a chip on my shoulder about being a FNG on this site.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Raellus]

I've been thinking about the Mexican invasion scenario...

On the Causes and Provocation

A reverse Zimmerman Note- after many of the U.S.'s refineries are nuked, and Mexico refuses to sell oil at below market rates, there's some loose talk of forcefully acquiring Mexican oil- it's not a serious plan, but the idea is bounced around. The Soviets catch wind of this and pass it along to the Mexican gov't, along with some incriminating decrypts.

Impoverished Mexicans, meanwhile, continue to cross the border, drawn by the tens of thousands of jobs abandoned by American draftees. Unlike WWII, there's no Bracero guest laborer program (conservative state governments shoot down the idea, fearing an influx of pro-communist Mexican agitators). American border militias, infiltrated by elements of New America, flock to the border to stop illegal immigrants, using the Red Scare as justification for their increasingly aggressive border policing. In several instances, deadly force is used.

With these twin provocations, and needing to distract the restive Mexican populace from the country's crumbling economy, the gov't/military plans and executes an invasion of the American southwest, stating that they are simply taking back what was stolen from them. Given the various massive deployments to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, the U.S. military has a relatively small footprint in CONUS.

To Nuke or Not to Nuke [Mexico]

AFAIK, canon makes no mention of nukes being used against Mexico. But wouldn't the U.S. resort to nukes to stop the initially successful Mexican invasion of American soil? Well, not necessarily. Conventional strikes, by aircraft and cruise missile, could temporarily knock out Mexican fuel production while avoiding the kind of damage that would rule out the U.S. ever getting its hands on Mexican oil in the future. Assuming that the U.S. in '98 could scrounge up enough airframes and munitions, the Mexican Air Force- the weakest element of its armed forces- couldn't stop determined air raids. The U.S. gets to keep its cake (Mexican oil) and eat it too (deprive the MAF from using it).

[kato13]

To Nuke or Not to Nuke [Mexico]

AFAIK, canon makes no mention of nukes being used against Mexico. But wouldn't the U.S. resort to nukes to stop the initially successful Mexican invasion of American soil? Well, not necessarily. Conventional strikes, by aircraft and cruise missile, could temporarily knock out Mexican fuel production while avoiding the kind of damage that would rule out the U.S. ever getting its hands on Mexican oil in the future. Assuming that the U.S. in '98 could scrounge up enough airframes and munitions, the Mexican Air Force- the weakest element of its armed forces- couldn't stop determined air raids. The U.S. gets to keep its cake (Mexican oil) and eat it too (deprive the MAF from using it).

Not sure from context if you only mean American Nukes, but Mexico was nuked (most probably by the Soviets) during the Neutrals phase.

From Big Yellow Book

Mexico: Pemex refineries were among the first to be hit by nukes (as part of the destruction of neutral nations' refining capacities, to deny their use to the enemy). In an attempt to distract domestic critics from internal problems, the ruling PRI (el Partido Revolicionario Instilucbnal, the Institutional Revolution Party) and PPS (el Partido Popular Socialists, Popular Socialist Party) coalition in Mexico took advantage of the alleged American mistreatment of Mexican refugees as an excuse to start a war with the gringos.

The intended distraction did not work, and as the war ground to a standstill, the army and internal opposition revolted against the coalition in Mexico City. Mexico is now divided into various regions, each loyal to one of four different contenders in the Mexican Civil War of 1999. The large cities, the mountain regions, and the jungles are in a state of anarchy. Army units of mixed (or no) political loyalty occupy cantonments in Mexico and in the United States, surrounded by disputed regions. Insular communities are strung out along the Pacific and Caribbean coasts, eking out a sparse existence by subsistence agriculture and deep-sea fiishing.

[Matt Wiser]

In one of those threads, I had an exchange between General Cummings and the acting CINC-SAC, about the use of low-yield nukes on logistics targets in Northern Mexico to stop the invasion. General Cummings basically said, "Let the historians fifty or a hundred years from now debate whether or not this is the right decision. We don't have the conventional forces to stop the invasion." He then orders CINC-SAC to release his aircraft and they strike targets along the main highways to the border (the B-61s are set on the low yield setting 10 to 20 KT), and the Mexican logistics system falls apart after that.

[Raellus]

I choose to ignore the BYB. For me, it's the v1.0 timeline all the way.

[weswood]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

-
Texas might indeed have been stolen (Ouch! I should be careful, there are plenty of Texas boys around, probably ready to bite at a small bouncing froggy )

Yeah, well, it wasn't nailed down or anything...

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by weswood

Yeah, well, it wasn't nailed down or anything...

And they did just leaving it laying around where pretty much anyone could find it. The US did them a favour by moving in and keeping an eye on the place...

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by weswood

Yeah, well, it wasn't nailed down or anything...

Well, how do you think Rhode Island got it's name? Someone stole it, and it got rowed back!

(You guys didn't watch SuperChicken when you were kids, did you...)

[jester]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Well, how do you think Rhode Island got it's name? Someone stole it, and it got rowed back!

(You guys didn't watch SuperChicken when you were kids, did you...)

When you find yourself in danger, when you're being threatened by a stranger, CALLLLLLLLLLL on Super Chicken!


You knew the job was dangerous when you took it Fred.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by jester

You knew the job was dangerous when you took it Fred.

I used to drive my troops, fellow soldiers, and superiors nuts with that one. "You knew the job was dangerous when you took it (insert name or rank here)!"

[jester]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I used to drive my troops, fellow soldiers, and superiors nuts with that one. "You knew the job was dangerous when you took it (insert name or rank here)!"

I used to say that all the time too.

I also would sing the superchicken song around one of my men/freinds who was known for his "chicken" legs. Although he could do the three mile run in under 17 minutes on those chicken legs of his the freak!

[Targan]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

How dumb do you think I am that I really believe the southwest of 1848 was filled with cities and highways and industry?

Be cool Mr President. No one here thinks you are dumb.

[Mohoender]

Taking distance from Canon and using our various exchange, I wrote this. It might not please everyone but I hope you'll find some ideas interesting. Several elements remain vague but that is on purpose and, in addition, I didn't want to develop the final outcome. Constructive suggestions are more than welcome as this is very foreign to me

Late in the Twilight War, after US was subjected to nuclear strikes, people starts to flee and cross the border into Mexico. Among these people, you find Anglo-saxons but most are US citizens of Mexican descent.

They are expecting a warm welcome but the Mexican government, also still untouched by the war, is experiencing difficulties of its own. A political crisis just brought up a socialist coalition to power and the destruction of world exchange has reduced income. Nevertheless, Mexico is still exporting a lot to the weakened US, generally for outrageous prices (vehicles, oil products and ammunitions). Else, growing unemployment, ethnic tensions (Chiapas…), drug cartels and internal corruption are slowly resulting in internal unrest.
The refugees are not that welcome and they are soon directed toward camps along the border. The Mexican government does its best to treat them well but it is lacking in supply and the situation soon decays. Then, words are brought to the US (by rogue journalists) about mistreatment of the refuges. These accusations have no real ground outside of isolated events but US has no means of verifying them and they are sufficient to trigger the machine. General Chief of Staff, order the army to gather what it has left (a few lightly mechanized national guard units, some newly formed cavalry border regiments, little air support, and a majority of under equipped infantry units, often closer to local militias) and send these troops into Mexico to help US citizens and bring them relief.
Outraged by this sudden violation of its sovereignty the Mexican government orders its own army to move against the US troops. Under normal conditions, the Mexican Army is, of course, no match for US but this is far from a normal situation and the still well organized Mexican armoured cavalry units, benefiting from air support and well supplied in fuel meet with outstanding success. Within a week the US invaders have been repelled and several Mexican units have crossed the Rio Grande and established outpost on US soil. The situation could have gone no further but the US General Chief of Staff (now aware that the first intervention was far from being justified) decide to order a counter attack, this time officially declaring war to Mexico.
For the first time, the war is on the Latin American continent and within days the most anti-US government in the region grants their support to Mexico (Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela). For a fairly long time, the US 4th Fleet (largely under strength because of the war) remains unable to control the Caribbean and the western Mexican coast. As a result, reinforcements are coming from Latin American countries and Mexico is soon capable of pushing its advantage.
- Venezuela (which received Russian T-90 before the war) delivers its stored AMX-30 to Mexico (as a result Mexico is capable of fielding an armored brigade) along with light infantry units and combat squadrons (among them, a number of Su-30). In the meantime, supported by Ecuador attacks are conducted on Columbia.
- Nicaragua doesn’t send any troops but it launches an attack through Costa Rica in an attempt to seize the Panama Canal. This fails when Guatemala and Honduras enters the war on the side of the US.
- Division “Latin America” (“Cuba” if you prefer) is assembled and sent to Mexico.
- Cuba is the country to send the most important number of troops to Mexico (Armored, Infantry, Air support). Cuban troops also attempt to land in Florida but this is countered and meets with a dramatic failure (almost no Cubans escape).
However, while the Mexican population widely supported the counter offensive directed toward the first US invasion, it seems that the people are quickly growing tired of the full scale war now underway. Despite new but more limited military success, unrest is growing in the country and the Mexican Army quickly loose spirit. For the second time, the war could have come to its end.
Again peace fail to come as an ambitious Mexican politician succeeds in giving war a second breath. Refering to past history and stating that the borders of Mexico (designed by the Adams-Onis treaty) should be that of 1819, he gather a wide support from the population and the Latin American coalition soon finds itself on the push again. Now the US 4th Fleet has gathered enough strength to disrupt regular shipping in the Carribean and the US is facing this new push with better organized troops but they are still outmatched. After a few months (several weeks) of regular fighting, the US is still unable to stop the Latin American progression and unrest is growing oll over the USA. Faced with the potential full destruction of the state, the General Chief of Staff orders several nuclear strikes on the Latin American countries involved. Mexican and Venezuelian oil facilities are targeted along with Mexico City, Managua, La Havana and Caracas.
As a result, most operations come to an end, civil chaos appear everywhere and the Mexican Civil War is triggered….