YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

Cool down guys. I don't think any offense was intended from both side.

By the way Raellus what you say about industries is right but when you report it to history, it is equally false.

You forgot one thing. In 1848, industries were rare all over the union anyway as the economy was still focusing on raw materials and agriculture. When California (along with "1/2 Mexico") was taken over by the future USA it brought along things that were as valuable as industries and technologies today:
- Very fertile areas, rich forests, mineral ressources including gold and many other things (These lands were potentially rich).
- Several spots that would soon become major ports on the Pacific and the first step toward US development in Asia.
- Similarly, a valuable connection to the entire American West Coast (the Panama Canal was not even dreamed of and the Cape Horn was a tricky route). That will prove more than important in 1876 with rail development.
...

Good point, Moh. There certainly was/is economic potential in the regions annexed from Mexico. The problem was that the Mexican government was doing very little to exploit and develop that potential. To the Mexican government, AZ, NM, TX, CA, etc. were bothersome frontier areas, difficult and costly to manage and administer. They took the easy way out by allowing/encouraging American settlers to move into the areas and ended up paying the price once the settlers became entrenched and started considering the region to be an American suzereignty.

It's sort of ironic because in a sense, the opposite is happening now. American citizens tend to disdain certain lines of work (agricultural and landscaping, construction, service industries, etc.) and so basically invite Mexican nationals to migrate, legally and illegally, in order to fill those jobs. Then many American citizens complain about the social and economic costs associated with this migration, feeling that the Mexicans are "taking over" parts of the country. I guess that's Karma.

And SGlancy, please, I was not trying to insult your intelligence. I simply did not detect your intended sarcasm.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Raellus

And SGlancy, please, I was not trying to insult your intelligence. I simply did not detect your intended sarcasm.

When you gently corrected the obvious fallacy in my statement, it came off to me like you were talking down to the village idiot. That was just my interpretation, not how you wrote it.

Clearly I have a chip on my shoulder about being a FNG on this site.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Raellus]

I've been thinking about the Mexican invasion scenario...

On the Causes and Provocation

A reverse Zimmerman Note- after many of the U.S.'s refineries are nuked, and Mexico refuses to sell oil at below market rates, there's some loose talk of forcefully acquiring Mexican oil- it's not a serious plan, but the idea is bounced around. The Soviets catch wind of this and pass it along to the Mexican gov't, along with some incriminating decrypts.

Impoverished Mexicans, meanwhile, continue to cross the border, drawn by the tens of thousands of jobs abandoned by American draftees. Unlike WWII, there's no Bracero guest laborer program (conservative state governments shoot down the idea, fearing an influx of pro-communist Mexican agitators). American border militias, infiltrated by elements of New America, flock to the border to stop illegal immigrants, using the Red Scare as justification for their increasingly aggressive border policing. In several instances, deadly force is used.

With these twin provocations, and needing to distract the restive Mexican populace from the country's crumbling economy, the gov't/military plans and executes an invasion of the American southwest, stating that they are simply taking back what was stolen from them. Given the various massive deployments to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, the U.S. military has a relatively small footprint in CONUS.

To Nuke or Not to Nuke [Mexico]

AFAIK, canon makes no mention of nukes being used against Mexico. But wouldn't the U.S. resort to nukes to stop the initially successful Mexican invasion of American soil? Well, not necessarily. Conventional strikes, by aircraft and cruise missile, could temporarily knock out Mexican fuel production while avoiding the kind of damage that would rule out the U.S. ever getting its hands on Mexican oil in the future. Assuming that the U.S. in '98 could scrounge up enough airframes and munitions, the Mexican Air Force- the weakest element of its armed forces- couldn't stop determined air raids. The U.S. gets to keep its cake (Mexican oil) and eat it too (deprive the MAF from using it).

[kato13]

To Nuke or Not to Nuke [Mexico]

AFAIK, canon makes no mention of nukes being used against Mexico. But wouldn't the U.S. resort to nukes to stop the initially successful Mexican invasion of American soil? Well, not necessarily. Conventional strikes, by aircraft and cruise missile, could temporarily knock out Mexican fuel production while avoiding the kind of damage that would rule out the U.S. ever getting its hands on Mexican oil in the future. Assuming that the U.S. in '98 could scrounge up enough airframes and munitions, the Mexican Air Force- the weakest element of its armed forces- couldn't stop determined air raids. The U.S. gets to keep its cake (Mexican oil) and eat it too (deprive the MAF from using it).

Not sure from context if you only mean American Nukes, but Mexico was nuked (most probably by the Soviets) during the Neutrals phase.

From Big Yellow Book

Mexico: Pemex refineries were among the first to be hit by nukes (as part of the destruction of neutral nations' refining capacities, to deny their use to the enemy). In an attempt to distract domestic critics from internal problems, the ruling PRI (el Partido Revolicionario Instilucbnal, the Institutional Revolution Party) and PPS (el Partido Popular Socialists, Popular Socialist Party) coalition in Mexico took advantage of the alleged American mistreatment of Mexican refugees as an excuse to start a war with the gringos.

The intended distraction did not work, and as the war ground to a standstill, the army and internal opposition revolted against the coalition in Mexico City. Mexico is now divided into various regions, each loyal to one of four different contenders in the Mexican Civil War of 1999. The large cities, the mountain regions, and the jungles are in a state of anarchy. Army units of mixed (or no) political loyalty occupy cantonments in Mexico and in the United States, surrounded by disputed regions. Insular communities are strung out along the Pacific and Caribbean coasts, eking out a sparse existence by subsistence agriculture and deep-sea fiishing.

[Matt Wiser]

In one of those threads, I had an exchange between General Cummings and the acting CINC-SAC, about the use of low-yield nukes on logistics targets in Northern Mexico to stop the invasion. General Cummings basically said, "Let the historians fifty or a hundred years from now debate whether or not this is the right decision. We don't have the conventional forces to stop the invasion." He then orders CINC-SAC to release his aircraft and they strike targets along the main highways to the border (the B-61s are set on the low yield setting 10 to 20 KT), and the Mexican logistics system falls apart after that.

[Raellus]

I choose to ignore the BYB. For me, it's the v1.0 timeline all the way.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I choose to ignore the BYB. For me, it's the v1.0 timeline all the way.

Fair enough. It would help explain the initial success of the invasion.

[Raellus]

I was just trying to make a case for the U.S.A. using conventional means to temporarily cripple Mexico's oil industry. I envision great American reluctance to use nukes vs. their southern neighbor, primarily because predominant weather patterns pretty much guarantee that much of the fallout will cross the border and further contaminate the U.S. If the Soviets do the nuking, it makes a bit more sense.