OT or Not OT: Twilight 2030

[Raellus]

Do you really think that Germany and France and the other more affluent EU member nations are going to keep bailing out Greece and Italy and Spain indefinitely? News reports here in the States during the last round of Eurozone bailouts suggested that Germany, at least, was pretty fed up and that the majority of the German public was against pouring more money into nations that they felt were only dragging their own economy down.

Also, the austerity measures that were required as a condition of the bailouts were/are extremely unpopular in those countries. There were riots in Greece and fairly recent riots in Spain. I know that many Greeks wanted to leave the Eurozone rather than suffer more social welfare cuts (not that it would have helped). To me, countries leaving the EU, either the creditors or the debtors, doesn't seem far fetched at all. If the Russians then stepped in and promised the poorer outcasts some sort of financial aid, maybe gas subsidies or something like that, it could create an even deeper division.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Do you really think that Germany and France and the other more affluent EU member nations are going to keep bailing out Greece and Italy and Spain indefinitely?

Honestly? Haven't a clue. That's why I would welcome opinions from other members.

I do think that if a second bailout was to become a major issue in the future there is much more chance of France and Germany forcing the expulsion of the debtor States from the EU (which would involve rewriting the Treaty of Europe if the debtors did not leave out of choice) rather than France or Germany (or any other creditor State) choosing to leave. As I said in a previous post, France and Germany (and others) have too much invested in the EU to walk away from it. So it would be the debtors that would be forced out, effectively creating a two tier Europe, consisting of the have's on one side and the have not's on the other.

From the point of view of a Twilight 2030 scenario that's probably not a bad outcome, as the have nots would, presumably, not be well disposed to the have's who not refused to bail them out again but threw them out of the club. Sounds like fertile ground for the Russians to reach out to and offer aid in the way that you mentioned. (I find it analagous to a relative who has run out of money and can't pay their rent - how often do you bail them out before you eventually say "no more" and at that point who do they turn to)

So, as part of the T2030 scenario are we proposing a renewed economic crisis at some point in the future that causes serious and permanent splits within the EU that lead to a number of States (Spain, Portugal, Greece?) being forced to leave the EU? If so I think I could go along with that.

And, as a separate matter, there also remains the possibility of the United Kingdom opting to leave the EU of its own accord dependent on the result of the 2015 General Election and any subsequent Referendum.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

So, as part of the T2030 scenario are we proposing a renewed economic crisis at some point in the future that causes serious and permanent splits within the EU that lead to a number of States (Spain, Portugal, Greece?) being forced to leave the EU? If so I think I could go along with that.

That's exactly what I was getting at. Now, what could prompt a global international crisis? I'm thinking a war involving China. That would do the trick, most likely.

What's the most likely way for that to start? I'm thinking a territorial dispute between China and Vietnam. If it starts off small, that would reduce the likelihood of the U.S. jumping right in militarily (we don't have any kind of military alliance with Vietnam, whereas we do with both Japan and the Philippines). Still, relations between the world's two largest economies would be strained to the point that the U.S. economy would quickly go into a major recession (the first steps of a significant depression), further depressing global markets and leading to an immediate economic crisis in Europe. This could set up the Euro split I've proposed and set the stage for a new round of Russian aggression and territorial aggrandizement in Eastern Europe. WWIII would then be only a few short steps away.

I wouldn't be surprised if, at the same time that China was unsheathing its sword in East Asia, North Korea took the opportunity to make a move against its southern sister.

Would a border war between China and Vietnam be enough of a trigger? Would a nautical border dispute between China and the Philippines be a better option?

[Panther Al]

One problem I am seeing - unless I missed it - is that the Baltic States are in NATO.. hence should Russia look to snapping them up, it must be willing to kick off WW3 right then and there.

[Rainbow Six]

In going against the Baltics, the Russians are taking a calculated risk, namely that with the US already involved in a hot War with China (and therefore significant American assets involved in the Pacific Theatre) NATO will not be willing to go to War over the Baltic States. So the Pacific War has to start first.

As it happens, they get it wrong and NATO (or at least part of it) does go to War...

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Raellus

That's exactly what I was getting at. Now, what could prompt a global international crisis? I'm thinking a war involving China. That would do the trick, most likely.

Off the top of my head I don't know. Taiwan would obviously be a major flashpoint. Only other one I'm familiar with are the Spratly Islands. A naval conflict between China and Vietnam there could theoretically escalate into a full scale War. The Spratlys are also claimed by, amongst others, the Philippines, so there is potential for further escalation, if for example, a Phillipine Navy ship gets "accidentally" sunk by the Chinese.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

I think the US has to get involved in a shooting war in Asia before the Russians make their move in Europe though. The Russians have to think that the Americans are too involved in Asia to also get involved in Europe.

So how about the following over a two / three year period

• Relations between the US and China become strained; there's no War (yet) but the strain on relations causes the US and European economies to go into recession (again)
• The recession causes a new crisis within the Eurozone and several countries require a bailout. Other EU States (led by Germany) refuse to finance a fresh bailout package, leading to a crisis that ultimately leads to several of the member States that were seeking a bailout leaving the EU
• The Russians reach out to those former EU members offering an attractive package of assistance
• A fresh wave of fighting in the Pacific escalates (over Taiwan maybe?), drawing the United States into the conflict. The US is forced to commit forces allocated to NATO roles to the Pacific Theatre
• At the behest of the Chinese, North Korea invades South Korea, leading to further pressure on US commitments
• The Kremlin leadership calculate that with the US committed elsewhere, NATO will not offer any military opposition to a Russian occupation of the Baltic States
• Russian forces invade Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
• NATO splits; some countries withdraw from the alliance but others honour their treaty obligations and declare War on Russia

[Raellus]

I think that works really well. I thinking the shelling of a Filipino warship is enough to precipitate a period of economic strain between China and the U.S. A fragmented NATO and an overstretched U.S. military make the Russians much more of a match, militarily speaking, especially if the recent trend in comparative defense spending between Russia and the West continues in the interval between now and 2030 or whatever.

[Targan]

A US-China war would put Australia in a really tough position. I'd say Australia would almost certainly back the US, but that would crash Australia's economy because it would lose it's biggest trading partner. Interesting scenarios there Raellus and Rainbow Six.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Targan

A US-China war would put Australia in a really tough position. I'd say Australia would almost certainly back the US, but that would crash Australia's economy because it would lose it's biggest trading partner. Interesting scenarios there Raellus and Rainbow Six.

Plus one other neighbor that Australia's concerned with: Indonesia. Let's say a more hardline military coup or fundamentalist Islamist sect is now in control of the country, and have been spending cash to build up their military, in particular their amphibious capabilities. With the chaos of a full-blown U.S. vs. China conflict, would the Indonesians take advantage of the chaos and make a try for some real estate on Australia, perhaps with some quiet backing from the Chinese?