OT or Not OT: Twilight 2030

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

So, as part of the T2030 scenario are we proposing a renewed economic crisis at some point in the future that causes serious and permanent splits within the EU that lead to a number of States (Spain, Portugal, Greece?) being forced to leave the EU? If so I think I could go along with that.

That's exactly what I was getting at. Now, what could prompt a global international crisis? I'm thinking a war involving China. That would do the trick, most likely.

What's the most likely way for that to start? I'm thinking a territorial dispute between China and Vietnam. If it starts off small, that would reduce the likelihood of the U.S. jumping right in militarily (we don't have any kind of military alliance with Vietnam, whereas we do with both Japan and the Philippines). Still, relations between the world's two largest economies would be strained to the point that the U.S. economy would quickly go into a major recession (the first steps of a significant depression), further depressing global markets and leading to an immediate economic crisis in Europe. This could set up the Euro split I've proposed and set the stage for a new round of Russian aggression and territorial aggrandizement in Eastern Europe. WWIII would then be only a few short steps away.

I wouldn't be surprised if, at the same time that China was unsheathing its sword in East Asia, North Korea took the opportunity to make a move against its southern sister.

Would a border war between China and Vietnam be enough of a trigger? Would a nautical border dispute between China and the Philippines be a better option?