OT or Not OT: Twilight 2030

[Rainbow Six]

As I said earlier, a potential Pacific War isn't something that I've ever given much thought to, but to throw a few thoughts out

• I like the idea of Australia (on the US side) and Indonesia (on the Chinese side) getting involved. It adds to the global scale of the War that I think is needed to achieve the classic T2K atmosphere. I think the idea of a potential Indonesian invasion of Australia itself has been identified as pretty unlikely a few times, but Targan's suggestion of Papua New Guinea being a flashpoint sounds good to me

• I had originally envisioned the North Korean invasion of the South as having been an opportunistic move that took place because the US was committed elsewhere. However, that is exactly the same rationale we're positing for the Russian invasion of the Baltics, so maybe it would be better to have the fighting in Korea start before the PRC makes its move against Taiwan rather than repeat the same rationale. With regard to other nations (e.g. Australia) sending troops to the ROK, I think that's possible. For any nation not wishing to be seen as allying itself directly with the US, they can use the argument that allied forces in Korea are operating under a UN mandate, so you might see contingents from other nations as well (Taiwan maybe, which would increase tensions between the PRC and the ROC?).

• I like the idea of a confrontation in the Spratlys being the precursor to the larger conflict. I think a naval skirmish between the PRC and Vietnam does have the potential to escalate into a full scale conflict between the two countries (still as a precursor to the main Asian War). I also like the idea of a US / Vietnamese alliance. Perhaps the Sino - Vietnamese War ends after several months, following which the US and Vietnam agree closer military cooperation (back to the enemy of my enemy is my friend principle). When the main PRC / US War starts that causes fighting to start again on the PRC / Vietnamese border and the US sends ground troops and aircraft to Vietnam? As I said, I like this idea and it gives you the access you're looking for to mainland China.

• Chinese allies - not sure how feasible this one is, but how about Pakistan? Eventually we need to bring a Pakistan - India conflict into this scenario anyway. That's probably easily enough done without either of them being linked to belligerents in the Asian War, but would give an added twist. Myanmar would also work I think.

[Schone23666]

Lots of good points here, keep 'em coming.

I admit I have not looked that closely at the current and future capabilities of Indonesia, but agree it would be much easier for them and make more sense to make a land grab for Papua New Guinea. PNG's economy has been taking off recently due to it's mineral resources, and the Chinese are obviously going to be gunning hard for whatever resources they can acquire quick once the shooting starts, much like the Japanese during WWII, and not too unlike now only with less bullets involved (interesting comparison when you think about it.)

The Chinese also have a number of workers and companies currently operating in Papua New Guinea, so perhaps the MSS (Ministry of State Security) has a number of agents and paramilitaries on the ground helping stir up trouble in coordination with the Indonesian invasion, in return for a "cut" of PNG's mineral resources. As I recall, there's already been a few riots and tensions simmering in Papau New Guineau recently between the natives and the number of Chinese now operating in the area. It could get very interesting, and pretty ugly.

That's another thing to consider, there are a lot of Chinese living abroad these days around the world, and unfortunately there's a fair number of agents working for the MSS among them as well. So once the shooting starts, what do a lot of these Chinese do? I imagine from what I've read about prevailing attitudes among them along with priorities, it would be a mixed bag. You would certainly have plenty of die-hards that would be loyal to the state and would do whatever their Chinese superiors ordered them to do, or just create potential chaos out of sympathy to their homeland. You'd have others that might be more reluctant to do anything and may just want to keep a low profile ("I came out here to Africa to make money, not get my ass shot off!") and others that have resettled in other parts of the world like here in the U.S., especially dissenters who don't like the direction China is going and might actually take up arms against their former homeland ("Screw this, I'm not going to sit here and watch China try to imitate Imperial Japan!"). It's worth noting that a lot of Chinese have supposedly complained that the primary reason Chinese youths get involved in the Chinese Communist party these days (is it still even called Communist??) is to make contacts among the party elite and get on a fast track to making cash quick. Ironic, no?

And of course, that also brings to mind a potential for a lot of nasty repercussions against ethnic Chinese in other parts of the world, especially in countries that are now locked in conflict with them. Ethnic riots, internment camps...I don't like bringing up the specter of the Japanese internment camps during WWII here in the U.S. as an example, but it happened unfortunately. I don't know if it would happen here in the U.S. again, at the very least there would be a LOT of protest and potential riots made before that happened, but I could see it happening in other countries with a number of Chinese who might find themselves locking horns with the "new" Chinese empire.

Also, there are a number of Russian immigrants now living in the U.S as well. Once things go hot and nasty in Europe with Russia? I'd expect to see at the very least some uncomfortable tensions brewing stateside amongst the ethnic Russians, torn between their native homeland and their new homeland, and also agents of the FSB and perhaps even a few Spetsnaz looking to create chaos whenever possible.