Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[Cdnwolf]

President Vladimir Putin ordered massive military exercises involving troops in western Russia, as pro-Western Ukrainian revolutionaries charted a new course in Kiev.

The military exercise is meant to “check the troops’ readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation’s military security,” said Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who added that Putin ordered the exercise Wednesday afternoon. The troop maneuvers will begin Friday and will last four days, and involve ships of the Baltic and Northern Fleets and the air force.

Shoigu did not make any reference to Ukraine, which shares a border with western Russia, the Associated Press reports. Opposition figures there are setting the groundwork for a new government after toppling the Russia-supported President Viktor Yanukovych. A Russian lawmaker promised Tuesday to protect pro-Russia activists in Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, where Russia has a major naval base.

It remains to be seen what kind of pressure Putin will apply in Ukraine and how he may seek to reassert his control in the country. When the protests began in December, Putin promised Russia would not use military force in Ukraine. “None of this means that we are going to go in there and wave our saber around and send in our troops,” he said at his annual year-end press conference three months before Yanukovych was overthrown. “That’s total rubbish. That is not happening and cannot happen

http://world.time.com/2014/02/26/rus...#ixzz2uSxTVLgU

[Cdnwolf]

From Twilight 2013

One month after the video making its way onto the internet,
Russia launches a major assault into the Ukraine. The Russian
president gives a speech to the media declaring Russia’s right to
preemptively protect itself from threats. In a spectacular show of
combined arms Russia quickly encloses the Rada controlled areas
and begins to tighten the noose. Russia now is effectively fighting
extremists on two fronts, in the Ukraine and in Chechnya.
Russian forces make light work of most of the Rada resistance
except for the areas around the city of Luhansk, the Rada
stronghold. Rada insurgent fighters manage to inflict moderate
losses on Russian troops in heavy fighting in and around the city.
It takes another month of fighting before the Russians declare the
city liberated. Although beaten, the Rada are not destroyed totally.
Many survivors go on to wage an Iraqi-style insurgency against their
Russian occupiers.
The Ukrainian government does not take the intrusion into its
sovereign territory lightly. While they are grateful for the assistance
Russia is providing against Rada elements, the Russian invasion is
seen as an act of war. Rather than engaging the Russian military
however, the Ukrainian military sets up the Luhansk Oblast as
a containment zone. The goal being to keep Russian forces from
engaging targets elsewhere in the country and to be prepared to
repel the Russian invaders once the Rada is put down.
Russia has not been immune to the severe weather seen around
the world. Crop production is at an all time low, and the Russian
people are demanding action from the government. During the
Soviet years, the Ukraine region was often seen as the breadbasket
for Russia being a major source of grain, sugar, meat and milk
products. With the Russian military already in the Ukraine, it does
not take much provocation to extend the action.
Arguing that the current Ukrainian government is incapable of
controlling its people, the Russians again state their rights to protect
their people even against perceived threats. Once the Luhansk
Oblast has been pacified though, Russia begins to target the entire
country for “pacification”.

Copyright © 2008 by 93 Games Studio.

[Targan]

The Russian government must be sorely tempted to annex the Crimean Peninsula right now. Obviously they have no fear of the Ukraine, but the rest of the world wouldn't be happy about it. Then again, there's a couple of provinces of Georgia that are now part of Russia. No-one was prepared to do much about that.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by Targan

The Russian government must be sorely tempted to annex the Crimean Peninsula right now. Obviously they have no fear of the Ukraine, but the rest of the world wouldn't be happy about it. Then again, there's a couple of provinces of Georgia that are now part of Russia. No-one was prepared to do much about that.

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

It is interesting that T2013 had the statement that it did about the Ukraine.

My $0.02

Mike

[stormlion1]

Putin longs to reassemble the old USSR with himself at its head. This will not end well I think.

[.45cultist]

Still interesting for us, whether T2K2.2 or T2013(or a mix of the two).

[Olefin]

uh oh - hmm wonder if I should start stockpiling gas and ammo - especially since a bunch of Russians just stormed the Crimean Parliament building and raised the Russian flag

Twilight 2015 anyone?

[kalos72]

Good thing I already do...

This is scary stuff...

[Olefin]

I agree its scary - while I loved fighting my M1A1 across Poland and taking out several Russian AFV's in Texas to hold onto that oil platform I really dont have much desire to do it in real life

hmm - wonder how much that windmill to generate my own power will set me back?

[Cdnwolf]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

It is interesting that T2013 had the statement that it did about the Ukraine.

My $0.02

Mike

Although the Ukraine is a supplier of UN peacekeeping forces,
no other country comes to their aid. The massive refugee crisis in
Western Europe has many believing the Russian rhetoric. Once the
action in the Ukraine progresses from securing against a possible
nuclear threat to complete pacification, people in France and
Germany for instance side with the Russians. Many European media
outlets begin to portray this action as an expanded security action by
the Russians rather than an invasion. The politicians in Europe are
basically forced to abide by the wishes of their constituents. Russia’s
threat of the oil supply coming through the region into Europe
quiets those European politicians not swayed by the media or the
populace.
The U.S. also abstains from the conflict both militarily and
diplomatically. With no backing from the European members of the
UN Security Council and no willingness to go at it unilaterally, the
U.S. sits this one out. Although that doesn’t mean that U.S.-made
weapons and supplies don’t reach Ukrainian insurgents.

Again from Twilight 2013.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.

[stormlion1]

I think we will have an economic collapse long before we need to worry about an invasion. At that point we will only real have to worry about is Raiders, Government forces stealing stockpiled food, Gas, and ammo for their own use, and UN Intervention. Oh and don't forget the complete devaluing of the US Dollar, Possible Civilian disarmament and low ammunition stockpiles and power outages.

[RN7]

Putin is looking at a map of where ethnic Russians live outside of Russia. He sees the Crimea, the Eastern Ukraine, the entire north of Kazakhstan and parts of Belorussia and the Baltics states and pockets here an there in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

He then looks at a map of the old Soviet Union and sees that the areas were the Russians live are by and large the best parts of it. The oil fields and the space launching site at Baikonur in Kazakhstan are certainly of interest to Russia, and Russia shares a very long border with Kazakhstan who's population in about 40% Russian and Slav. But who wants the deserts and mountains were all the crazy Muslims live in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, and what use are Armenia and Georgia to Russia.

He's then thinking the Eastern Slavs in Belorussia and the Ukraine are really Russians, and to an outsider they might as well be as they share a similar language, religion and culture. Belorussia is now so cosy with Russia that it might as well be part of it, so that just leaves the Ukraine.

He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?

It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine

[Targan]

Events seem to be developing quickly: Ukraine: minister accuses Russia of 'armed invasion' in Crimea

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Targan

At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.

I think this analysis is pretty spot on.

Originally Posted by RN7

He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?

It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine

I would agree with pretty much all of this as well. If the Russians do take over the Crimea there might be a bit of tut tutting and finger wagging from some elements in the EU and that will be that. I can't imagine things will be any different in the US. Ukraine will be no different from Georgia if it comes down to a confrontation with Russia - left to its own devices by everyone else and having to make peace on Russia's terms.

[Schone23666]

These so-called "gunmen" that have conveniently seized all the government buildings in the Crimea sound a bit too professional and well-equipped, at least by witness accounts to be just another bunch of pro-Russian street hoodlums. So far they've issued little in way of any demands other than hoisting the Russian flag over the buildings, and one journalist that tried to ask them questions was purportedly answered with a flashbang grenade. Make of that what you will.

Putin is "former" KGB (does anyone REALLY leave any national/state security apparatus?) So of course he's schooled in the ways of how the good'ol Soviet Union used to be. With Russia regaining it's footing somewhat, and with him and his personality cult fully entrenched, I can't see why he wouldn't be a bit tempted to recapture those old "glory days". And sad thing is? As other posters already commented, there's not a lot anyone else is going to do about it.

To know history, is to know the future...

[Olefin]

I think Putin has made a big mistake here - if he tries to annex the Crimea he is looking at war with the Ukraine. And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

This could get very down and very dirty very fast.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I think Putin has made a big mistake here

I thin Putin knows exactly what he is doing and how far he can go.

Originally Posted by Olefin

And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

I think the Ukrainians also know how far they can go.

Originally Posted by Olefin

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

The 2008 Russia - Georgia War took place three months before a US Presidential Election and it didn't make a bit of difference (although I'll grant you the incumbent lost that election)

[Schone23666]

If either side (or god forbid just some idiot) is actually insane enough to blow the lid off of the containment sarcophagus at Chernobyl...

Well, at least we'll finally get a chance to play S.T.A.L.K.E.R. in real life, maybe?

Get out of here, S.T.A.L.K.E.R.!

[Olefin]

keep in mind that there is a large Ukranian and Polish (parts of that country used to be part of Poland remember) American community here in the US - plus cutting the military if you see images on TV of Russian tanks invading the Ukraine - great way to see your legacy issue go poof.

plus Georgia is a relatively small country that most people dont have any connection to

and I dont really see the Baltics and Poland seeing anything like that and just sitting on their hands waiting for the hammer to fall on them

dictators have a habit of overreaching (Barbarossa anyone as a great example) - and I think Putin is about to join the club

looks like maybe we need to update that Twilight 2013 timeline for a new start date in March of 2014

[Rainbow Six]

I still think Putin knows exactly what he's doing and where the red lines are that he can't cross. Poland and the Baltic States are full members of the EU and NATO. That's a red line.

I do think Putin will try and take the Crimea. And be successful. I don't know if he will try for eastern Ukraine as well. What I've read in the last few days by people who know far more about the situation than I do suggests he probably wont.

[Olefin]

If he does take the Crimea you can kiss goodbye any US military drawdown - he might as well just make an official announcement that the Cold War is back - and there are a lot of countries that would see a resurgent expansionist Russia as very bad news - this isnt a couple of small areas in a country that barely matters - taking back the Crimea is something that will be a game changer with US relations with them

and if he does then the Ukraine will join NATO for sure - lets see how that helps US Russian relations get even colder

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I do think Putin will try and take the Crimea. And be successful. I don't know if he will try for eastern Ukraine as well. What I've read in the last few days by people who know far more about the situation than I do suggests he probably wont.

I agree. Russia has no interest getting caught up in a long, painful insurgency while trying to hold occupied territory against furiously resentful locals. Afghanistan and Chechnya were both disasters for Russia. Putin was a KGB colonel, imagine what kind of nasty, brutal stuff he got up to during his former career. He's very much a realist, and very sharp. Trying to occupy large parts of the Ukraine along a wide line of control would be messy.

The Crimean Peninsula, on the other hand, is almost already a fait accompli. Putin has huge amounts of support among the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea, Russia has an (albeit dodgy) historical claim, it has huge amounts of military personnel and materiel right there already and Putin has a nice range of (again mostly dodgy) arguments he can put to the rest of the world as to why a Russian intervention would be in everyone's interests.

Another possibility is that the Russians will engineer an incident or incidents which look like the work of Ukrainian nationalist radicals, to give themselves the trigger they need to just flood the area with their military and border guard forces. I think the situation in the Crimea is very fluid right now and I think it could become very dynamic very quickly.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

If he does take the Crimea you can kiss goodbye any US military drawdown - he might as well just make an official announcement that the Cold War is back - and there are a lot of countries that would see a resurgent expansionist Russia as very bad news - this isnt a couple of small areas in a country that barely matters - taking back the Crimea is something that will be a game changer with US relations with them

Don't disagree with any of that.

Originally Posted by Olefin

and if he does then the Ukraine will join NATO for sure - lets see how that helps US Russian relations get even colder

I think the Ukraine had already stated its intention to join NATO and NATO had responded by saying both Ukraine and Georgia would be welcome as members at some unspecified future date

See here from 2008 (Paragraph 23)

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-BE92F...texts_8443.htm

And here from 2009 (Paragraph 29)

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/...e=pressrelease

So again, don't disagree with you but NATO doesn't seem to be in any great rush over the matter...

[Olefin]

I agree with you Targan on Putin staging something to give him an excuse

anyone want to lay bets on a Russian warship (something old and expendable) being sunk by "Ukranian terrorists" sometime in the next few days in a Crimean port?

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I agree with you Targan on Putin staging something to give him an excuse

anyone want to lay bets on a Russian warship (something old and expendable) being sunk by "Ukranian terrorists" sometime in the next few days in a Crimean port?

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)

Meh, he wouldn't need the mustache. He doesn't need to impersonate Stalin when his own personality cult is already firmly entrenched. It doesn't help that we live in an age where celebrities, whether they be politicians, movie stars, self help gurus, etc. are nearly worshipped as messiahs. Look at the cult around the recently deceased Hugo Chavez as one recent example.

Putin basically IS Russia at this point, for better or worse.

[stormlion1]

Actually I could see him using the people who seized those government buildings as a pretext. "going in to aid the oppressed Russian Minority" or "Aiding the Russians attempting to breakaway from an oppressive gov't" as a excuse. And I honestly see it turning into a long drawn out low-key affair rather than a big shooting war. As long as Putin has defacto control he can do what he wants until he can make the claim legitimate with phony elections or even UN Sanctions because Russian Forces are acting as Peacekeepers.

[Cdnwolf]

Going to hell fast. Putin gets parliamentary approval to use Russian troops and BBC now reporting two different units already on the ground. Anyone have update information on what troops are in the area?