Yet another Alternative TW2K Timeline

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Marc

It's strange (and sad) to verify my ignorance about Portugal, given our geographical position.

That must come from History matters As you are Catalan you aren't very much concerned by these but Portuguese and Spanish are much like Irish and English.

Originally Posted by Marc

-The incorporation of Spanish Galicia to Portugal would depend of the relative damaged suffered by the two countries in the used timeline. If Spain is untouched by nukes, I think it would not happen. Though Galicia has some nationalist movement, it has not the same "colour" that in Catalonia or in the Basque Country. They will remain (if possible) faithful to Spain. I must add the importance of the Galician naval shipyards for Spain. Anyway I will ask a Galician friend his opinion about the subject in our next roleplaying session. It would be interesting.

I definitely agree and assume than Spain is much as it is described in canon: "Its central government is a shamble, now represented by roving bands of Guardia Civil and military units."

I don't buy that statement entirely for Portugal for several reasons:
- GNR are not Guardia Civil but they are closer to the french Gendarmerie.
- Each portuguese regiment was (and somehow remain) attached to its garrison city. In case of chaos, Portuguese units in Porto would be faithful to that city and the surrounding areas. It would be similar for every city: Braga, Coimbra, Evora...

sglancy I don't wan't to contest your point (It is yours) but with Lisbon and the refinery in Porto I almost covered all my bases (outside the Azores and Madeira which can become other targets). Several regiments were stationed in Porto but the nuking of the refinery would also wipe out most of the industrial port. What facility would remain are unable to accomodate anything bigger than an Aviso or a small Frigate. There is no true air base in Porto and if the airport was run partly by the air force (G-91R were stationed there), its facilities will never make it a primary target. The base was never opened to F-16s and is now closed.
It has one of the shortest airway of Europe and only very well trained pilots can land there. In fact, qualification must be the same than that for Madeira and the old Hong Kong airport. It also has the simplest radar equipments and it is closed one third of the time. Each time you have fog on it, the airport is closed (1 day out of 3) as it is not equipped with the proper tools.

Other strategic bases do exist indeed but they are all in the south and mostly around Lisbon. Sintra would definitely be a target (you'll find the peacetime portuguese HQ there). Montijo could also be targeted as it is the main transport base but again it is only a few miles away from Lisbon. Sad, I would not be able to go there and watch corridas any more (they are the most beautiful).

The last two targets would be Monte Real (on the coast halfway between Lisbon and Porto) and Beja. For Beja I don't believe it would be nuked because it is right in the middle of the communist region of Alentejo. It would, however, be the center of heavy fighting between military and guerrilas.

Still, the North would escape almost untouched. It is a very mountainous region and it would have some strong point for survival. Several mines on the Douro river can provide what is needed to manufacture ammunitions (+tungsten for trade). Again, the Douro region can easily be turned to producing energy for the entire area (oil and alcohol in large quantities) plus tools in every village. In addition, Villa Nova de Gaia could be turned to energy production in no time.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

sglancy I don't wan't to contest your point (It is yours) but with Lisbon and the refinery in Porto I almost covered all my bases (outside the Azores and Madeira which can become other targets).

I don't think we are in disagreement about what would happen to Portugal during a Soviet nuclear attack. I just don't have enough information at my end to speculate on which targets in Portugal would be targeted.

I agree with your assessments about Porto and Lisbon. Porto's facilities sound like they would all be wound up by a mid-range nuke: the port, the refinery and the airport would all be severely damaged by a single airburst. And Lisbon's got so many facilities in the area that it sounds like one MIRV dropping four or five 100K weapons over the area would pretty wipe out the NATO facilities and the central government's command and control.

I do have some more questions for you:

1) Is Porto used by NATO ships? Is it just a port or is there a naval base?

2) Where are the Portuguese naval bases?

3) What are the critical targets in Monte Real and Beja? Sintra is the military HQ, Montijo is a transport base (do you mean that it's a rail transport hub?), but what's in Monte Real and Beja that's work a nuke?

I don't think the old men in the Kremlin will give a damn about any Portuguese leftists in the blast radius around Beja. If Beja is worth nuking, then it's gonna catch a nuke. On the other hand, I do like the idea that there could still be European leftist groups fighting against what's left of the central government. During the war, these groups would have organized civil disobedience, protests, the avoiding of conscription and in the most extreme cases acts of domestic terrorism as part of political campaigns against the war effort. After the nukes and the general slide into chaos, there's no reason why the more communist elements (those that envision a time for armed struggle) wouldn't try to organize for genuine revolution... or if not a genuine revolution then a warlord-style cantonment where they call each other "comrade" and steal all the farmers' crops for "redistribution."

Originally Posted by Mohoender

Still, the North would escape almost untouched. It is a very mountainous region and it would have some strong point for survival. Several mines on the Douro river can provide what is needed to manufacture ammunition (+tungsten for trade). Again, the Douro region can easily be turned to producing energy for the entire area (oil and alcohol in large quantities) plus tools in every village. In addition, Villa Nova de Gaia could be turned to energy production in no time.

I also presume that the north of Portugal has a fairly low population density too. I like the idea of civilization retreating to the fastness of the mountains to regroup. Of course, their biggest problem will be getting over-run by refugees fleeing all the chaos, fallout, and panic in the south of the country.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I don't think we are in disagreement about what would happen to Portugal during a Soviet nuclear attack. I just don't have enough information at my end to speculate on which targets in Portugal would be targeted.

I agree and that's why I only list one target in the North. There is of course a few Dams on the Douro river but nothing to justify a nuke.

The main differences between Porto and Lisbon lay in the cities layout.
- Lisbon is located on the Tage river and it is wide open. It is also a fairly flat area with a few low hills. If hit by a MIRV nothing will stop the blast. All facilities are located both on the Atlantic and on the Tage which is very large.
- Porto is on the Douro river and the region is not as flat. The refinery and the modern harbour are located to the north and, if the refinery is hit, the modern harbour will be destroyed as well. The modern quarters and the upper parts of the city will also see extensive damages while the modern building on thesouthern bank will suffer some damage as well. As I expect only a limited strike on the city, I count that the old city will be relatively shielded as it is located on both side of the river, at the bottom of two high cliffs. Even the eiffel bridge could survive. The airport, however (on the south bank), will survive and will certainly be turned into the main base for what survive of the airforce. The only other airport of some importance being at Villa Real and Braga.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

1) Is Porto used by NATO ships? Is it just a port or is there a naval base?

2) Where are the Portuguese naval bases?

At Porto you'll find nothing more than a few patrol ship (mainly police and custom). The main naval base is and always was at Lisbon. If the modern harbour at Porto survive, it could be of use but I doubt it does.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

3) What are the critical targets in Monte Real and Beja? Sintra is the military HQ, Montijo is a transport base (do you mean that it's a rail transport hub?), but what's in Monte Real and Beja that's work a nuke?

Monte Real is the fighter base while Beja is the training and naval patrol base. For Montijo, it is the main airlift base.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I don't think the old men in the Kremlin will give a damn about any Portuguese leftists in the blast radius around Beja. If Beja is worth nuking, then it's gonna catch a nuke. On the other hand, I do like the idea that there could still be European leftist groups fighting against what's left of the central government. During the war, these groups would have organized civil disobedience, protests, the avoiding of conscription and in the most extreme cases acts of domestic terrorism as part of political campaigns against the war effort. After the nukes and the general slide into chaos, there's no reason why the more communist elements (those that envision a time for armed struggle) wouldn't try to organize for genuine revolution... or if not a genuine revolution then a warlord-style cantonment where they call each other "comrade" and steal all the farmers' crops for "redistribution."

Today you would be right but at the time of T2K it would be an entirely different matter. I would have expected these guys to retain several weapon caches. In addition, they are far from being simple leftist and they are true diehard communist in the old meaning. Don't forget that they took over the Portuguese revolution only 20 years before and they had very strong ties with Moscow. They were only countered by the return of Mario Suarez. At last, all the archives of Salazar's regime have disapeared and they are strong rumors that they have been transfered to Moscow. I agree with you on what they would establish over the South.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I also presume that the north of Portugal has a fairly low population density too. I like the idea of civilization retreating to the fastness of the mountains to regroup. Of course, their biggest problem will be getting over-run by refugees fleeing all the chaos, fallout, and panic in the south of the country.

You presume in the wrong way. Portugal's population is about 10 million with the most populated area being Lisbon and its surrounding targets (3.5 Million). These will almost be entirely gone (at least 75% casualties) with 80% of the country's industrial capacity.

The second most populated area is Porto with roughly 2 Million. There, you can expect a good 1 million casualty with more damage to the industrial network. However, the wine business at Villa Nova de Gaia will be turned to energy production and the Douro river can be used as a good bloodline. Hard road communication will not be a problem for those living there. In 1986 you needed 4h to go from Porto to the wine producing region only 80 miles away. In 1995 that time was down to 2h30. Most vehicles will be donkeys, mules, old Mercedes, Bedford and Toyotas. You can even expect the train to be still running between Porto and the Alto Douro.

What I count as being the Northern region is composed of 6 districts (Aveiro, Braga, Bragança, Viana de Castello, Villa Real and Viseu) plus that of Porto. Outside Porto they represent 2.5 million people with the most fertile area. In fact the only region of Portugal that can sustain itself in term of food and water.

What remain of the country would, then, represent only 2 million people with the South being the least populated. As a result, the districts bearing the weight of refugees would be more these at the center (Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Guarda, Portalegre and Santarem).

A last thing will make a difference. The regions I counted in the north are considered to be the heart of Portugal and Braga is it's capital city by heart (the Portuguese reconquesta started from there, from Villa Real and Lamego). People living there are tough by our standards (even more so at the time of T2K) as many were used to live with limited electricity and water. In addition, they don't like people from the South and I have no doubt that they would not hesitate to turn them back at gun point. During the revolution, communists took over most of the country but they were never able to achieve much control over the North.

The North represents 40% of the pre-war population and it would get 60-70% of the post strike survivors.