Poland After OMEGA

[Rainbow Six]

Interesting thread...I read Rising 44 in 2003 when I was working in Warsaw...great book, slightly surreal reading it in the City where it happened...

If you haven't seen it there's a write up of Poland on the etranger 2300 site...it briefly mentions the immediate aftermath of the Twilight War...here's the link...

http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~dh...oland/JBPA.htm

A few random thoughts...

I totally concur with the view put forward that several different factions will emerge, each with its own power base, and each supported by foreign mercenaries as well as Polish troops. I also agree that it would probably make for more of a diplomatic campaign rather than a hack n slash...

I tend to think that the Germans aren't going to be in any condition to make an offensive move against Poland for decades...I think the Germans will have enough on their plate defending their borders, dealing with marauder groups inside their own country and the French presence in the Rhineland. So unless Poland threatens Germany, I don't see Germany threatening Poland any time soon.

The Soviets are undoubtedly a bigger problem, although I agree with Adm Lee and think that problem may diminish over time as units simply begin to disintegrate. I also think there may be a fair number of Soviet units on Polish soil who will be happy to stay put, and in doing so may possibly form local defence militias. I think it's possible that they may also enter into alliances, not only with the Poles but also possibly XI Corps in the north.

(What I'm thinking here is that a Soviet unit may be quiet comfortable billeted in a Polish town several hundred kilometres from Theatre HQ; the area may be relatively free of marauders, the Soviets have a good relationship with the locals who are providing them with food and other services, several of the Soviets may have become nvolved with local women, and then they receive orders to move to the Ukraine to fight the separatist forces there. How many units are going to simply ignore these orders, stay put, and gradually go native? I think quite a few; one Zampolit can hardly force a whole Company to move, and if he presses the issue too much then he risks a bullet in the back of the head).

Re: King Julian, he has to be a prime candidate for assasination I think. Any faction that can successfully kill him and replace him with their own man (or woman) has gained over de facto control of Silesia. If they can manage to blame another faction for the assasination, then that's an added bonus. I think that might some potential for a campaign, and is able to utilise the material already published by GDW for background.

Even killing him and not managing to replace him would be a partial success, as without him as a figurehead the armed forces under his command might disperse of their own accord.

I also wouldn't rule out French interference....when our group played Black Madonna all those years ago, we had Julian receiving "advice" from two DGSE agents who had been parachuted into Silesia. One was killed, one disppeared, to become the group's nemesis, returning from time to time.

As I said, just a few random thoughts...

[pmulcahy11b]

Based on that thread link you posted, here's another random thought -- the NCO and Officer-making process shows heavy US influence. Which in many ways does make sense to me, as a lot of US forces stayed behind in Poland after Op Omega.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Based on that thread link you posted, here's another random thought -- the NCO and Officer-making process shows heavy US influence. Which in many ways does make sense to me, as a lot of US forces stayed behind in Poland after Op Omega.

Agreed.

I think it makes a huge amount of sense for XI Corps to attempt form an alliance with Polish forces in the north after Omega. if nothing else, it may be a way for them to eventually get back to North America.

[simonmark6]

Looking at the 2300AD stuff, I am going to make a few guesses about how things go in the immediate future of Southern Poland.

1) Fillipowicz loses, either from pressures within and teh Polish partisans or from Krakow conquering him. The most fun RPwise would be for PCs to make the partisans successful enough to gain backing from Krakow and at some point Filipowicz is whacked.

2) Either the Czechs get their house in order and neutralise the rouge General or he is bought off/rubbed out.

3) This leaves an interesting campaing for the forces of Krakow to take out the deserters around Stoala Wola (sp?) who aren't likely to be absorbed or go away.

4) That would leave Krakow in a solid position with a good agricultural base and a platform for industrial restoration.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I think it makes a huge amount of sense for XI Corps to attempt form an alliance with Polish forces in the north after Omega. if nothing else, it may be a way for them to eventually get back to North America.

It might make sense in today's political and social climate, but Poland is still at war with Nato in 2000...

One cannot forget that Germany, backed up by Nato was seen by many eyes as the aggressor. After 4 solid years of war and Poland reduced to nothing more than rubble (and much of the damage done by NATO in the 1997 withdrawal as they threw nukes at the Pact forces), forgiveness and brotherhood are likely to be VERY rare virtues in the Polish people.

It is highly likely Polish troops may well be even more fanatical in driving out Nato than the Soviets ever were! It's just fortunate that the Germans and Poles are, at least in the lead up to Omega, at seperate ends of the border, otherwise there might be a few more mushroom clouds (figuratively speaking).

[Raellus]

That's a good point, Legbreaker. By 2000, Poland's been fighting NATO for three years. There's likely to be a lot of bad blood.

I think the Germans are only in Poland to keep the Soviets at arms length. If the Soviet threat was lessened somehow (withdrawal, disintegration, defeat), I don't think the Germans would necessarily feel the need to stick around. There's plenty for them to do back in the Fatherland.

Who knows how the Poles would approach the situation? If they do so pragmatically, then the Germans might be allowed to go in peace or even to stay in western Poland for a period of time. If the Poles chose to act emotionally, then fighting with NATO would probably continue. I just don't see that there is that much to gain from attacking NATO when there are bigger threats on Polish soil (marauders of various nationalities, Soviet units). I seriously doubt Germany would attempt offensive ops against Poland. There seems to me that there is much more to gain by both sides agreeing to at least a cease-fire, if not some sort of active cooperation.

Canon seems to suggest that the Germans are pulling back to and consolidating on German soil while most of the Americans are pulling out of Europe entirely during OMEGA. As several posters have pointed out, France is bigger threat/preoccupation for Germany than Poland is.

Of course, this all hinges on the Soviet question. If there isn't a significant Soviet pull out and/or collapse in Poland, then the Germans aren't likely to budge from Polish soil.

Prior to WWII, there were three attitudes held by Poles. In general, those living in the western part of Poland viewed the Germans as a bigger threat and were more likely to advocate cooperation with the Soviets. In the east, the exact opposite was true. And then, many Poles suscribed to the "doctrine of two enemies", and prefered to treat both with suspicion (if not outright hostility) and to keep both at arm's length. I can see these same ideas/attitudes prevalent in the Poland of 2000.

@Rainbow Six

I also believe that the French would be trying to exert their will in Poland. In my campaign, one of the PCs is a FFL direct action team member who was sent to Poland to find and recover the Black Madonna. The idea was to acquire a powerful religious symbol linking Catholic France and Catholic Poland which would give the French some sort of leverage in the political future of the post-war Poland.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think the Germans are only in Poland to keep the Soviets at arms length. If the Soviet threat was lessened somehow (withdrawal, disintegration, defeat), I don't think the Germans would necessarily feel the need to stick around.

Go back and examine the cause of the war in Europe. Depending on the version, 7 ethnic Germans in the Polish Army were ordered to do something they objected to - In V1 I think it was being assigned to the Soviet-Chinese front, while in 2.0 and 2.2 it involved issues a little closer to home.

The Poles didn't like these 7 men disobeying their orders, and (rightfully in my mind) punished them for it - they were after all members of the UN recognised government of the country.

What was the German response to this essentially lawful act by the Poles? Invade a sovereign nation already preoccupied with a war on the other side of the world.

This might not be the whole story, but it's enough that many Poles will see clear comparisons to 1939 and earlier. One also has to remember that Poland is a fairly new country. Until relatively recently, Poland has been split up amongst it's neighbours, fought over countless times and generally been treated with complete distain. This historical chaos and repression doesn't just fade away into distant memory, especially when it's relived time and again by it's neighbours invading it.

Poland, while an ally in WWII, was badly treated by the west after the war (even during it I beleive in some cases). Nato grew out of the western allies and so it's probable a clear connection can be seen by many older Poles. Germany, their historical enemy joining Nato as a full member could well have been seen as a further slap in the face to those who'd suffered under the Nazi regime. The Soviets might not have been saints, but they were the ones in comtrol of the media since 1945. Propaganda against the west would only increase distrust and general loathing...

So why would the Germans remain in Poland? That's a question I can't answer without spending a lot more time on research. The fact that they are there would probably continue to drive Polish efforts to expel them while inflicting as much damage as they possibly could (not much really since the Poles have limited military resources left in comparison).

The US withdrawal and handover of heavy equipment to the Germans might well taint the US in the eyes of the Poles also. Their may well be less of them about, but handing over tanks, etc to their historical enemies isn't going to sit very well with them...

[Abbott Shaull]

Well there are couple things. The western one third of today Poland was once part of Germany before WWII. Also well as part of East Prussia that the Soviet claim as part of their prize after WWII.

Then you add into account that Poland for centuries was an occupied nations that have surrounded her for centuries. Before the Soviets it was the Prussians, Russians, and Austrians who had carved up Poland before WWI over the years. At time when Sweden was what we would call a super power by today standards, they to were an occupying nation of present day Poland.

After the war many of the of the Eastern European countries like Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Bulgaria, portions of Yugoslavia, and portions of Romania wouldn't be in to much of hurry to accept help from any of the former allies and enemies since they had been subject to occupation. Places like Hungary and Austria wouldn't be much better off since they were both at one time the power behind many of the occupations over the years.

No I see Poland going through a period where who ever finally comes to control over most of what is/was Poland would be very interested in keeping Germany, Austria, Hungary, and the Soviet Union off balance for some time to come. More so than the Soviet Union and Germany would want each other.

What the Polish have going for them is the only country who left standing who may want to help them is the French. Again how much would they trust the French if at all. The Poles in general would accept what limited foreign troops, especially if they aren't in control of the militia they are part of.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It might make sense in today's political and social climate, but Poland is still at war with Nato in 2000...

Is Poland still at war with anyone by 2000? Politically, officially maybe yes, but militarily? I think not.

[Legbreaker]

I don't think it's written anywhere in canon that the war officially ends on any front. Even over in China, which was nuked back to the stone age quite early on, the war still "officially" rages.

While the ability of the various participants to continue is questionable, historical influences can't be ignored. The past 4 years of warfare in Europe will have created and increased a lot of bad blood - I can see a large number of war crimes and atrocities being committed by all sides (torture, prisoner executions, etc) as "payback" for issues both real and imagined.

The situation in Yugoslavia in the early to mid 90's is similar to the way I see much of Europe in T2K. Everyone with a grudge, no matter how minor, is probably going to pick up the nearest weapon and do something about it. With the lack of effective government and political systems (a mixed blessing IMO), it's not like laws will be enforced and "legal" punishments on perpetrators carried out.

[Cdnwolf]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Interesting thread...I read Rising 44 in 2003 when I was working in Warsaw...great book, slightly surreal reading it in the City where it happened...

I think a better read would be Mila 18 by Leon Uris about the ghetto uprising.. and the background history of the real reason the Uprising failed...

[StainlessSteelCynic]

France and Poland have history that the Poles remember as being good for Poland, this may motivate them to initiate and/or accept talks with France especially with France playing no part in NATO operations.

Both links below discuss the effect Napoleonic France had on the formation of the Polish national identity.
http://www.questia.com/googleScholar...cId=5001340286
http://www.poland.gov.pl/Napoleonic,...and,,7288.html
The fact that their anthem specifically names Napoleon Bonaparte as showing them the way to victory is an indicator of the influence the Poles believe he had on their quest for nationhood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_Is_Not_Yet_Lost The Polish national anthem

[Adm.Lee]

France & Poland is very much a natural alliance. Any country that can be used to divert the Germans is an ally for whoever is a neighbor of Germany, it seems.
I can very easily see French influence appearing early on in Poland's recovery from the Twilight War.

Last night, I went looking at Going Home again. I saw about 10 centers for Poland to start organizing around. Up north, the American-Canadian enclave is very near several Polish units that have left the Pact in favor of the Polish Free Congress in Pila-- whatever that is. The PFC sounds like a pro-NATO, or at least anti-Soviet organization, I suspect CIA/DIA backing for it. Since there is nothing in the OMEGA OpOrder that implied it was pro-US, I wonder if it's instead supported by the French? Pila's one of the biggest un-destroyed cities around, too.
Major clusters of Soviets remaining, at least through the 2000-01 winter: around Lodz, Poznan, Torun, Lublin and western Silesia. I wonder if the Russified civilian population of Kalinigrad should count, too.
In addition to Krakow and Silesia, there is also an independent Polish group around Gdynia, the Warsaw militias, and the Black Baron between Bialystok and Warsaw. {Of course, we all know what happens to him!}

So, I rather like the Etranger summary-- several small forces coalesce into fewer groups, and eventually the two biggest ones fight it out, until the French step in and help them end it. Much like Germany, except the French work hard to make sure they stay divided.
My only quibble might be that the British might want to try to gain influence with one or another faction, as well. I guess they lost that one to the French. The Swedes and eastern German successor states might like to have friends there, too.

For a game, I'd like to get into a spy-like game using White Eagle, there's just so much to work with in there. If a ref could really play King Julian, that would be fantastic, he is a central figure to the region, given his power, ambition and personality. While knocking him off would be a task, setting things up so that the region doesn't lose the organization he stamped on it and fall further into anarchy is the bigger job. I could see a group of PCs working for any number of outside intel. agencies getting into that. Or mercenaries who couldn't be entirely sure about who they are working for at all!

[Raellus]

Prompted by your post, Admiral, I too took another look at Going Home. There is certainly a lot to work with there.

I'm tentatively planning on mapping out all of the units listed as being on Polish soil in Going Home, as well as a key indicated each unit's "loyalty" status. When it's done, I'll make sure to post it here.

I'm in favor of the idea of French meddling... er... "involvement" in post-war Poland, although "post-war" may be a bit of a misnomer. I wonder if Twilight War would be an appropriate title since, by 2000, WWIII would have entered into a new lower-intensity phase, but one which nevertheless promises much more fighting to come.

The Poland of the winter of 2000-2001 is indeed a Balkanized mess and byzantine intrigues no doubt will abound there for some time.

My question is how could/would the French get their agents, supplies, covert-action teams, diplomats, etc. to Poland in late 2000 and thereafter? Crossing Germany by land and/or would be dangerous and provocative to say the least. By boat would be hazardous as well (mines, pirates, the last few vessels of the NATO and Soviet navies). A southern route from the Med would be long and perilous as well.

I see northern Poland as being the best option for the seat of a new Polish state because of the many Polish army units in that region. However, one would have to somehow tie them all back together and give them a unified purpose. This could make for an intriguing T2K campaign focussing on diplomacy.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I wonder if Twilight War would be an appropriate.

I believe the 2300 continuation of the Twilight2000 timeline refers to the period from 2002 to many years on as the 'Contrail War'. Just another option.

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Prompted by your post, Admiral, I too took another look at Going Home. There is certainly a lot to work with there.

I'm tentatively planning on mapping out all of the units listed as being on Polish soil in Going Home, as well as a key indicated each unit's "loyalty" status. When it's done, I'll make sure to post it here.

My question is how could/would the French get their agents, supplies, covert-action teams, diplomats, etc. to Poland in late 2000 and thereafter? Crossing Germany by land and/or would be dangerous and provocative to say the least. By boat would be hazardous as well (mines, pirates, the last few vessels of the NATO and Soviet navies). A southern route from the Med would be long and perilous as well.

I see northern Poland as being the best option for the seat of a new Polish state because of the many Polish army units in that region. However, one would have to somehow tie them all back together and give them a unified purpose. This could make for an intriguing T2K campaign focussing on diplomacy.

I could see the French using their mostly-intact merchant marine and navy to insert their agents and aid across the Baltic. I think they should be able to suppress or scare off any pirates without a sweat. {If they really wanted to, I suspect they could airlift stuff-- how are the Germans going to stop them?} If the Danes and Swedes object to French ships transiting their straits, the French have carrots & sticks to use-- technical assistance with rebuilding or naval threats. Sweden should still have its population, army and navy, but I can't see them wanting to pick a fight with the last European power.
Were I the Danes, and the French came through and offered to help rebuild & repair power stations and shipping, I'd take 'em up on it.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Polish Free Congress in Pila-- whatever that is. The PFC sounds like a pro-NATO, or at least anti-Soviet organization, I suspect CIA/DIA backing for it.

I think this is in some form of the Polish Government in Exile that moved from London to physically inside Poland during the war. It is pro-NATO with help from largely the DIA.

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Since there is nothing in the OMEGA OpOrder that implied it was pro-US, I wonder if it's instead supported by the French? Pila's one of the biggest un-destroyed cities around, too.

French weren't getting involved directly in Poland. They had agents there, I think I recall one operating in Krakow, but for a large part they were observers who would hire guns if they believe they could keep the French from appearing take one side over the other. The City of Pila size is one of the many reasons why Polish Free Congress has set up shop there.

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Major clusters of Soviets remaining, at least through the 2000-01 winter: around Lodz, Poznan, Torun, Lublin and western Silesia. I wonder if the Russified civilian population of Kalinigrad should count, too.

I think many of these locations the Soviet units would stay put to reinforce the local militia or attempt to head home themselves. Many in the Soviet senior officers have had enough of the war. The few units who would want to continue the war would be in the minority by this point. Even the basic grunt knows that the enemy is 10 feet tall and is in as bad shape or worse than they are currently. As for Kalinigrad, this town is up for grabs, I can see where poles would try to claim it, or the Germans.

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

In addition to Krakow and Silesia, there is also an independent Polish group around Gdynia, the Warsaw militias, and the Black Baron between Bialystok and Warsaw. {Of course, we all know what happens to him!}

These are the areas where the remains of the Soviet KGB and GRU, along with intelligence services from every other country including Isreal. I wrote somewhere else it was the French agent in Krakow, but now I suddenly remember her being Isreal agent. All of these places will have agents from all over Europe trying to move these pockets in hope of them gaining full control of Poland and future ally.

[Adm.Lee]

Abbott: I think you are remembering the Israeli agent in Krakow. I can't recall any French operatives in any module. What I am proposing is that French agents should be slipping in soon after the OMEGA evacuation. At the very least, they should be trying to find out what is going on there. Ditto for the Germans, really.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Abbott: I think you are remembering the Israeli agent in Krakow. I can't recall any French operatives in any module. What I am proposing is that French agents should be slipping in soon after the OMEGA evacuation. At the very least, they should be trying to find out what is going on there. Ditto for the Germans, really.

Yeah I realized that after I had written it bit.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

France and Poland have history that the Poles remember as being good for Poland, this may motivate them to initiate and/or accept talks with France especially with France playing no part in NATO operations.

Damn. You totally beat me to the punch Cynic. Now all I can do is pretend to be smart by commenting on your smartness.

Nice catch about the Polish National Anthem mentioning Napoleon. That's news to me.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

Damn. You totally beat me to the punch Cynic. Now all I can do is pretend to be smart by commenting on your smartness.

Nice catch about the Polish National Anthem mentioning Napoleon. That's news to me.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

Thank you for the compliment
Basically I'm a trivia whore I like accumulating all those random bits and pieces of information and while I can't usually give specific details like exact dates and so on, I remember enough info to use it as a 'head start' into the topic (particularly useful as a quick leap for doing a web search) or to see some of the links from the various smaller things into the 'big picture'.

[Adm.Lee]

In addition to being cut off by terrain and (potential) Pact forces, I'll stick to my opinion that the XI US Corps leadership is influenced by the Polish Free Congress representatives that are with them. The PFC is still trying to win over nearby Polish forces, despite their failure to do much before the offensive. In addition, the "loss of contact" implies to me that after the III German Corps broke contact, the Americans lost faith in their higher-ups. If we further assume some kind of communications breakdown (loss of radios or codes or whatever), then they are truly out of contact.

Where they are, the remainder of XI Corps can try to make the best of a bad situation. Every other NATO unit that's tried to leave their position (5th Mech, 8th Mech, even III Corps) has been driven back or swallowed up by the Pact forces all around. I can certainly see why they want to hunker down for the foreseeable future.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

In addition to being cut off by terrain and (potential) Pact forces, I'll stick to my opinion that the XI US Corps leadership is influenced by the Polish Free Congress representatives that are with them. The PFC is still trying to win over nearby Polish forces, despite their failure to do much before the offensive. In addition, the "loss of contact" implies to me that after the III German Corps broke contact, the Americans lost faith in their higher-ups. If we further assume some kind of communications breakdown (loss of radios or codes or whatever), then they are truly out of contact.

Where they are, the remainder of XI Corps can try to make the best of a bad situation. Every other NATO unit that's tried to leave their position (5th Mech, 8th Mech, even III Corps) has been driven back or swallowed up by the Pact forces all around. I can certainly see why they want to hunker down for the foreseeable future.

Yeah then throw into the account that the UK and other US units are leaving front line positions after things settle down so to evacuate home. It would be enough to make any Commander to think twice about stirring up a hornet nest again. No sense of giving the Soviet any more reason to move more units.