Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook: the timeline

[John Farson]

1997 - Nuclear Twilight
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At the beginning of July Italian airborne and alpine forces advance into Tyrol through the mountain passes. The weak units of the Austrian Army offer only minimal resistance and are soon defeated. By the middle of July Italian mechanized forces are fighting German area defence forces in the suburbs of Munich.

The Italian Army's excellent success during the first months of its own war is largely due to supply reasons. Most of its opponents have already been at war for at least six months. Their peacetime ammunition and material reserves have already been spent and their industries haven't yet fully transferred into wartime production. The Italians have full peacetime reserves which they can utilize in the fighting. When autumn begins to approach the Italians too begin to feel the material crunch, and their situation is worsened by the ever larger amounts of material that their enemies are receiving from their own factories.

In Asia India and Pakistan drift into bigger and bigger border incidents, mobilization and finally war. The actual war begins in the spring and by the middle of the year the Indian Army is slowly advancing along the whole front despite the ferocious resistance of the Pakistani Army.

At the beginning of July NATO forces are approaching the border between Polish-occupied Belarus and Russian-occupied Belarus (which Russia considers to be Russian territory), while Warsaw remains besieged. The Polish government-in-exile makes Poznan into its temporary capital and declares that it is upholding the pre-1939 Polish eastern border. In the Far East Russian forces begin a strategic withdrawal along the entire front, and Chinese motorized forces begin a victorious pursuit.

With the territory of the Rodina itself under threat, and with defeat staring at them in the face, President Zhirinovsky and his cohorts turn to the last remaining trump card that they have. It is a veritable Pandora's Box...

On 9 July the vanguard of the German 1st Army enters Russian soil (actually Russian-occupied Belarus), and the Russian Army responds with tactical nuclear weapons, the first ones used in anger since Nagasaki in 9 August 1945. In the west the use of nuclear weapons is sparing at first, and during the first week they are only used against forces that are within 50 km of the Russian border. In the Far East, however, nuclear warfare is immediately begun at a large scale. The surprised Chinese mechanized units are vaporized onto the roads in the midst of the pursuit. Russian attack aircraft launch nuclear-tipped missiles against those population and industrial centers in northern China that are still in Chinese hands. The Chinese retaliation is immediate, but the Russians are prepared, having dispersed their forces over a wide area. The Chinese nuclear attacks against Russia's main population centers fail with regards to Moscow due to the efficient ABM system defending the city, and the country's massive air defence network slaughters the low-flying Chinese bombers. The nuclear imbalance between China and Russia proves fatal for the former, for within the week the Chinese nuclear arsenal has been spent. The Russians, on the other hand, still have a massive amount of nukes to spare, and they relentlessly continue to bomb China. The Chinese infrastructure and communication networks, already stretched to the breaking point, completely collapse under the Russian nuclear onslaught. The roads are filled to the brim with refugees abandoning the remaining cities. China starts its rapid descent towards chaos and anarchy.

On the Western Front the vanguards of both armies are hit hard as NATO retaliates nuclear warhead for nucler warhead. At the end of August the first Russian divisions freed up from the Far East arrived at the front. Though there are no clear frontlines, they start to gradually move west.

On 15 September the siege of Warsaw is lifted. A week later Italian and Czech forces begin their new offensive in southern Germany. The offensive proceeds and the NATO forces in Poland begin to accelerate their withdrawal, at the same time resorting to scorched earth tactics. At the same time the Warsaw Pact countries occupy Slovakia and merge it back with the Czech Republic by force.

In September the Russian and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also begin a large offensive against the Turks. The unilateral use of tactical nuclear weapons breaks the impasse and by the end of the month Bulgarian armoured brigades begin their steamroll towards Istanbul. At the same time Greek and Albanian forces begin their own offensive against southern Serbia, and the Serb army begins to crumble. The Serbian army units fighting in Romania are recalled, but before their return Belgrade fall into the hands of the rapidly advancing Italian tank columns. The Romanian front collapses under the weight of tactical nuclear weapons, growing numbers of Russian soldiers and the desertion of the Serbs. With Warsaw Pact columns rolling through both countries isolated military units withdraw to the mountains to continue the war as guerrillas. Those Ukrainians who have fought alongside the Romanians return home to defend their own borders.

Those countries who have stayed neutral who still have UN troops in the Balkans immediately recall their people from the midst of this colossal mess. This is too late for most of them, however, for aerial transport in the area is now suicidal.
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Next: full-scale nuclear war and the collapse of civilization

[John Farson]

I added the bit about Zhirinovsky and Pandora's Box myself, to give a bit of flavour to the Russian decision to use nukes. In the book there's no mention of Zhirinovsky after 1996, so one can assume that he's President of Russia right until the main nuclear exchange that decapitates the leadership of both the US and Russia. I imagine him to be like Hitler in Der Untergang, raging in his bunker, only unlike Hitler, Zhirinovsky really does have the power to drag the whole world to hell with him.

[John Farson]

1997 - Nuclear Dawn
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In the west, NATO aircraft begin to conduct nuclear strikes deep into Poland, the Czech Republic and occupied Slovakia in an effort to slow down the Warsaw Pact's advance. The Pact responds likewise by nuking German industrial centers and port cities. NATO IRBMs are launched against industrial targets and port cities in western Russia. The tit for tat nuclear strikes continue throughout October in an ever-widening scale. Fearing a total nuclear war, neither side dare launch its ICBMs, or launch a large amount of missiles at once, in case the enemy regards it as the beginning of a massive attack and responds accordingly. Neither side is willing to step from the brink of total nuclear annihilation, and so they crawl over it, without fully realising what they have done until it is too late.

First the military targets are hit, after which the military-industrial targets are next. These are followed by the transportation and communications networks, the oil fields and refineries. Finally the industrial centers and oil refineries of neutral countries are attacked in order to deny them to the enemy. Many nuclear warheads are targeted against military supply depots and command centers. The nations' top political leadership is first decimated, then destroyed (almost by accident in some cases). The missile strikes continue spasmodically through November and December before gradually halting due to the collapsing chain of command.

In the midst of all the worldwide destruction India and Pakistan have their own nuclear war. Faced with defeat, Pakistan launches its nuclear attack against economically important targets in India as well as India's own nuclear arsenal in an effort to stave off the Indian retaliation. Despite the significant destruction of its industrial centers India has more than enough nuclear weapons for retaliation. The Indo-Pakistani War soon crawls to a halt as neither country is now able to feed its people, let alone continue to equip its military forces.
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Next, 1998

[John Farson]

1998
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The winter of 1997 and 1998 is particularly cold due to the dust raised into the atmosphere by nuclear weapons. At the turn of the year the civilian casualties in industrialized nations have risen to 15%, but the worst is yet to come. There are no longer any transportation and communications networks, and food distribution to those needing it is impossible. The nuclear war is accompanied by a famine the scale of which no one could have even predicted. Only the exceptionally cold winter delays the spreading of several kinds of disease simultaneously. In Third World countries the destruction of industry combined with the cessation of food aid causes ever more brutal misery, famine and death in many regions.

With the arrival of spring the unburied dead finally cause the spread of epidemics, which experts had feared but which they were unable to prevent. Plague, cholera, typhus, typhoid fever and many other diseases spread throughout the world. By the time they have abated over 50% of the world population will be dead.

In Europe France and Belgium have fared the best, practically standing alone while maintaining some sort of order in the midst of all the chaos. When refugees begin to stream towards the borders, their response is to close them. Military units begin to refuse entry to refugees at gunpoint. The French government allows the Army to advance to the Rhine in order to secure the eastern border with a natural barrier. A vast illegal zone is formed as refugees gather at the French and Belgian border. Open battles over food are followed by mass famine and epidemics until the illegal zone is deserted and dead.
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To be continued

[John Farson]

1998 (continued)
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In the front, NATO divisional strength has dropped to roughly 8,000 per division, and with the U.S forces it is only half of this. Warsaw Pact divisional strength varies between 500 and 10,000, but mostly it is in the 2,000 - 4,000 man range. Fuel, ammunition and spare parts shortages freeze the opposing armies to a standstill. Now would be a good time to make peace, but no governments remain to negotiate one. Only the military commanders remain, and they loyally follow their governments' last commands. Only the army possesses the means to distribute and store food during this time of near ubiquitous famine. Military casualties have been much lower than those of civilians.

In the Balkans, the partisan groups in the mountains of Romania and the former Yugoslavia have fared fairly well, whereas many Warsaw Pact units have either been destroyed in the tactical nuclear attacks, or scattered to the four winds afterwards. Indeed, Romanians and Serbs begin to re-establish new regular units, although they are still required to live off the land and are equipped with captured enemy equipment. At least in the beginning quite a bit of equipment is acquired by simply gathering it from all the material left behind by the enemy.

The borders also change. The Italian Army abolishes the borders of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia while the Greek Army annexes Macedonia. The Albanians demand the province of Kosovo, but both Greece and Italy support the Serbs' position. Albania first protests, then withdraws from the alliance and finally begins sporadic attacks against Greek units. They are joined by Kosovar and Macedonian Albanian guerrillas. At the same time Italian and Hungarian units are withdrawn from the Balkans and transferred to the Czech Republic, Slovakia and southern Germany. A few officers who are sympathetic to the neutrality of the orphaned Finnish and Swedish UN forces offer them a ride with the columns to Germany. By 2000 only a few dozen men and women out of the remants of one Swedish and two Finnish battalions will wander back to their home countries. The fate of the others is unknown.
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Next: the war with Mexico

[John Farson]

1998 (continued)
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In North America masses of hungry refugees begin crossing the Rio Grande. As a result most of the remaining U.S. military units are transferred to the southwestern United States in order to deal with the growing crisis. They receive their orders from the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), which now practically runs the United States. Widespread food riots and violence amongst the refugees is suppressed by military force. The Mexican government protests and within a few months the Mexican Army crosses the Rio Grande in order to protect the beleagured Mexicans. More American forces are moved south. The sporadic skirmishes escalate into open warfare, and Mexican tank columns begin to advance northeast towards Arkansas and northwest towards California. The front is soon halted at northeast Texas and central California. Anarchy and unrest spread throughout the rest of the U.S. as army units are moved to the front, leaving fewer units to keep the peace.

At the end of June Warsaw Pact forces in southern Germany restart their offensive with the aim of seizing the few remaining industrial centers in central Germany. Most of the best surviving areas in Germany are actually in the Pact-occupied South because neither side wished to destroy the valuable industrial areas. Regrouping itself during the attack, NATO does all it can to form a new frontline, and the Pact offensive is finally halted at the Frankfurt-Fulda line.

At the end of August NATO begins its own counteroffensive from the area of Karl Marx Stadt southwards, aiming at the Warsaw Pact's rear in the Czech Republic and Slovakia (which the Warsaw Pact calls Czechoslovakia). The Czech borderguards' paperthin defence is quickly crushed and the Warsaw Pact forces in central Germany begin their withdrawal towards the Czech Republic. In the process, the previously more or less intact southern Germany is utterly destroyed.

At the same time the Serbian Army's offensive is directed northwards with the goal of linking up with NATO forces. However, the Serbs are halted at Lake Balaton and are forced back.

As fresh Pact units arrive in "Czechoslovakia", the NATO offensive peters out. NATO forces are now moved west to occupy destroyed southern Germany. A desperate attempt to invade Italy through the alpine passes failes despite great sacrifices.

As the autumn rains begin NATO and the Warsaw Pact launch a second, short and weak nuclear exchange. This time the focus is on the destruction of Italy's and Britain's remaining industrial centers.

As both sides prepare for a new winter the battles finally degrade into mere skirmishes.
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Next: 1999

[John Farson]

1999
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The U.S. Congress convenes immediately after the spring planting for the first time since the use of ICBMs in autumn 1997. Senator John Brown (D-Arkansas), the former governor of Arkansas, appoints himself to one of the state's two vacant senate seats, followed by Congress electing him president. General Jonathan Cummings, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, regards the vote as unconstitutional and refuses to accept the result, citing vote fraud and the shady pasts of many congressmen.

(Although Cummings' decision is later widely criticized, his views were arguable. Many of the congressional seats were disputed. Many of the congressmen present were just local strongmen who had acquired most of the old congressional districts. Some had never even seen the district which they were supposed to represent. It could be confirmed that at least once a dispute over a congressional seat had been solved by guns while the House was in session.)

General Cummings declares that martial law will continue until a new census has been made, which will be necessary for the redistribution of congressional seats and the election of the president. President Brown responds by demanding Cummings' resignation, to which the general refuses. Although some military units moved over to the civilian government, most of the military continues to take its orders from the JCS (especially outside the U.S.) for two reasons: First, there is a tradition in the army of obeying one's superiors and the chain of command, which has usually kept the troops together so far. Second, the JCS possesses nearly all the remaining intact communications networks.

In North America the greatest effect of the split is the accelerated crumbling of central government. Most citizens refused to listen to either of the two competing governments, for their legality was mostly superficial.

The remaining national organisations and foreign governments choose between the competing governments. Germany's military government and the Polish government-in-exile continue with the military government (MILGOV), while the former Yugoslavian and Romanian partisans choose the civilian government (CIVGOV). The remnants of the CIA obey CIVGOV while the NSA remains loyal to the military, organising its own network of operatives to replace the CIA "defectors". Officially, the two governments avoid violence, publicly proclaiming to seek a peaceful resolution. In reality there are occasional skirmishes over vital bases, bloody coups in military units and numerous assassinations and other "dirty tricks" occur between the competing intelligence networks.

The troop transfers to Europe continue in the autumn, though at a very small scale. A few remaining warships protect the convoy, which consists of various merchant vessels. After CIVGOV's initiative both governments try to outdo the other, regarding success as proof of the faction's ability to remobilize the nation. In reality the mobilization only applies to the Atlantic coast and leads to huge resistance. Few people think at this point that shipping men, equipment and supplies to Europe is at all feasible with America's own situation being nearly untenable.

In reality the reinforcements are just a meagre amount of light vehicles and ammunition and mostly light infantry. Mortars are becoming the most popular fire support weapon, since they can be manufactured easily in small machine shops and backyards.

In Europe the front is immobile for most of the year. Patrols and guerrilla activity have become the most important methods of waging war due to the spread out nature of the armies. The front morphs from a unified line into a deep, sparsely populated zone as the troops settle down and start farming and small-scale industry in order to improve on their own supplies. Local civilians are hired to farm the land and to tend to administrative duties in exchange for protection against the ever increasing bands of bandits that plague the countryside. In some areas the security that a military unit provides to civilians means safety from the unit itself - a kind of post-apocalyptic "protection money." Many units in barren areas disperse or turn to banditry as they fall low on supplies. Even though most attacks are directed against "enemy" territory, they are later also directed against "allied" units, though not against units of the same country - at least not yet.

The chaos and death that has struck most of the population with the collapse of world trade is felt all over the world. The population of central Africa has been particularly hit hard, for with the onset of war the production and supply of the HIV vaccine to Third World nations has ceased at the same time as the number of AIDS cases has risen to 50% of the population.

No area is far enough away from the war to avoid it. Even the research stations in Antarctica and in space have been abandoned due to the war.
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Next: 2000