Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook: the timeline

[John Farson]

1998 (continued)
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In the front, NATO divisional strength has dropped to roughly 8,000 per division, and with the U.S forces it is only half of this. Warsaw Pact divisional strength varies between 500 and 10,000, but mostly it is in the 2,000 - 4,000 man range. Fuel, ammunition and spare parts shortages freeze the opposing armies to a standstill. Now would be a good time to make peace, but no governments remain to negotiate one. Only the military commanders remain, and they loyally follow their governments' last commands. Only the army possesses the means to distribute and store food during this time of near ubiquitous famine. Military casualties have been much lower than those of civilians.

In the Balkans, the partisan groups in the mountains of Romania and the former Yugoslavia have fared fairly well, whereas many Warsaw Pact units have either been destroyed in the tactical nuclear attacks, or scattered to the four winds afterwards. Indeed, Romanians and Serbs begin to re-establish new regular units, although they are still required to live off the land and are equipped with captured enemy equipment. At least in the beginning quite a bit of equipment is acquired by simply gathering it from all the material left behind by the enemy.

The borders also change. The Italian Army abolishes the borders of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia while the Greek Army annexes Macedonia. The Albanians demand the province of Kosovo, but both Greece and Italy support the Serbs' position. Albania first protests, then withdraws from the alliance and finally begins sporadic attacks against Greek units. They are joined by Kosovar and Macedonian Albanian guerrillas. At the same time Italian and Hungarian units are withdrawn from the Balkans and transferred to the Czech Republic, Slovakia and southern Germany. A few officers who are sympathetic to the neutrality of the orphaned Finnish and Swedish UN forces offer them a ride with the columns to Germany. By 2000 only a few dozen men and women out of the remants of one Swedish and two Finnish battalions will wander back to their home countries. The fate of the others is unknown.
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Next: the war with Mexico

[John Farson]

1998 (continued)
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In North America masses of hungry refugees begin crossing the Rio Grande. As a result most of the remaining U.S. military units are transferred to the southwestern United States in order to deal with the growing crisis. They receive their orders from the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), which now practically runs the United States. Widespread food riots and violence amongst the refugees is suppressed by military force. The Mexican government protests and within a few months the Mexican Army crosses the Rio Grande in order to protect the beleagured Mexicans. More American forces are moved south. The sporadic skirmishes escalate into open warfare, and Mexican tank columns begin to advance northeast towards Arkansas and northwest towards California. The front is soon halted at northeast Texas and central California. Anarchy and unrest spread throughout the rest of the U.S. as army units are moved to the front, leaving fewer units to keep the peace.

At the end of June Warsaw Pact forces in southern Germany restart their offensive with the aim of seizing the few remaining industrial centers in central Germany. Most of the best surviving areas in Germany are actually in the Pact-occupied South because neither side wished to destroy the valuable industrial areas. Regrouping itself during the attack, NATO does all it can to form a new frontline, and the Pact offensive is finally halted at the Frankfurt-Fulda line.

At the end of August NATO begins its own counteroffensive from the area of Karl Marx Stadt southwards, aiming at the Warsaw Pact's rear in the Czech Republic and Slovakia (which the Warsaw Pact calls Czechoslovakia). The Czech borderguards' paperthin defence is quickly crushed and the Warsaw Pact forces in central Germany begin their withdrawal towards the Czech Republic. In the process, the previously more or less intact southern Germany is utterly destroyed.

At the same time the Serbian Army's offensive is directed northwards with the goal of linking up with NATO forces. However, the Serbs are halted at Lake Balaton and are forced back.

As fresh Pact units arrive in "Czechoslovakia", the NATO offensive peters out. NATO forces are now moved west to occupy destroyed southern Germany. A desperate attempt to invade Italy through the alpine passes failes despite great sacrifices.

As the autumn rains begin NATO and the Warsaw Pact launch a second, short and weak nuclear exchange. This time the focus is on the destruction of Italy's and Britain's remaining industrial centers.

As both sides prepare for a new winter the battles finally degrade into mere skirmishes.
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Next: 1999

[John Farson]

1999
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The U.S. Congress convenes immediately after the spring planting for the first time since the use of ICBMs in autumn 1997. Senator John Brown (D-Arkansas), the former governor of Arkansas, appoints himself to one of the state's two vacant senate seats, followed by Congress electing him president. General Jonathan Cummings, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, regards the vote as unconstitutional and refuses to accept the result, citing vote fraud and the shady pasts of many congressmen.

(Although Cummings' decision is later widely criticized, his views were arguable. Many of the congressional seats were disputed. Many of the congressmen present were just local strongmen who had acquired most of the old congressional districts. Some had never even seen the district which they were supposed to represent. It could be confirmed that at least once a dispute over a congressional seat had been solved by guns while the House was in session.)

General Cummings declares that martial law will continue until a new census has been made, which will be necessary for the redistribution of congressional seats and the election of the president. President Brown responds by demanding Cummings' resignation, to which the general refuses. Although some military units moved over to the civilian government, most of the military continues to take its orders from the JCS (especially outside the U.S.) for two reasons: First, there is a tradition in the army of obeying one's superiors and the chain of command, which has usually kept the troops together so far. Second, the JCS possesses nearly all the remaining intact communications networks.

In North America the greatest effect of the split is the accelerated crumbling of central government. Most citizens refused to listen to either of the two competing governments, for their legality was mostly superficial.

The remaining national organisations and foreign governments choose between the competing governments. Germany's military government and the Polish government-in-exile continue with the military government (MILGOV), while the former Yugoslavian and Romanian partisans choose the civilian government (CIVGOV). The remnants of the CIA obey CIVGOV while the NSA remains loyal to the military, organising its own network of operatives to replace the CIA "defectors". Officially, the two governments avoid violence, publicly proclaiming to seek a peaceful resolution. In reality there are occasional skirmishes over vital bases, bloody coups in military units and numerous assassinations and other "dirty tricks" occur between the competing intelligence networks.

The troop transfers to Europe continue in the autumn, though at a very small scale. A few remaining warships protect the convoy, which consists of various merchant vessels. After CIVGOV's initiative both governments try to outdo the other, regarding success as proof of the faction's ability to remobilize the nation. In reality the mobilization only applies to the Atlantic coast and leads to huge resistance. Few people think at this point that shipping men, equipment and supplies to Europe is at all feasible with America's own situation being nearly untenable.

In reality the reinforcements are just a meagre amount of light vehicles and ammunition and mostly light infantry. Mortars are becoming the most popular fire support weapon, since they can be manufactured easily in small machine shops and backyards.

In Europe the front is immobile for most of the year. Patrols and guerrilla activity have become the most important methods of waging war due to the spread out nature of the armies. The front morphs from a unified line into a deep, sparsely populated zone as the troops settle down and start farming and small-scale industry in order to improve on their own supplies. Local civilians are hired to farm the land and to tend to administrative duties in exchange for protection against the ever increasing bands of bandits that plague the countryside. In some areas the security that a military unit provides to civilians means safety from the unit itself - a kind of post-apocalyptic "protection money." Many units in barren areas disperse or turn to banditry as they fall low on supplies. Even though most attacks are directed against "enemy" territory, they are later also directed against "allied" units, though not against units of the same country - at least not yet.

The chaos and death that has struck most of the population with the collapse of world trade is felt all over the world. The population of central Africa has been particularly hit hard, for with the onset of war the production and supply of the HIV vaccine to Third World nations has ceased at the same time as the number of AIDS cases has risen to 50% of the population.

No area is far enough away from the war to avoid it. Even the research stations in Antarctica and in space have been abandoned due to the war.
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Next: 2000

[John Farson]

2000
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By the spring of 2000 Europe's armies have adapted into their new "military cantonment administration" system. There are practically no civilian authorities left. Many military units recruit large numbers of the local population in order to keep their forces in strength, and stragglers are attached into units regardless of nationality. Therefore an American unit, for example, can contain quite a few former NATO and Warsaw Pact troops in addition to the Americans themselves. The units' official names (brigades, divisions etc.) no longer bear any meaning on the unit's true size.

At the beginning of summer the German 3rd Army, spearheaded by the U.S. XI Corps, sets off from its areas into one of the war's last strategic offensives.

[kato13]

Bravo. Nicely done. Thanks for all the hard work.

[John Farson]

You are welcome.

I am now working on the World situation in 2000.