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#31
12-30-2010, 07:25 AM
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It's not the stored data that's important, an agreement can be made on paper like in the days of yore. Like, the 80's. In the 90's it would have been via fax, after by email. I don't see your point about Ft. Knox; gold can be moved by plane, train, truck, mule train, etc. Moved to wherever safe, it's not germane to the discussion. Let's try to keep focused here!  Quote:
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Tony 
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#32
12-30-2010, 10:36 PM
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4000+ tonnes of gold would require approximately 80 trucks assuming a 50+ tonne capacity. That's a LOT of trucks or return journeys, and they're trucks at the big end of the scale too. That's also a LOT of fuel if you're taking it any distance, not to mention manpower for security, and with that manpower comes many opportunities for gold to go missing.... Now as to where? 4000+ tonnes, as we've seen in truckloads, is a LOT of bulk to find somewhere secure to hide. Yes, it's extremely unlikely that each truck would be filled by cubic space to capacity, but even so, you're going to need more than an average warehouse to keep it all in. It's not impossible to do, but even in peacetime, it's a hell of a logistical effort to keep under wraps! Quote:
We also have the fact that the US was without a government for the critical period. Looking closer at Howling Wilderness, we see that the last legitimate President (the Secretary of Energy) committed suicide sometime between taking office on the 19th of May 1998 and the 2nd of June 1998. The "Rump Congress" reconvened on the 19th April 1999, nearly a year later, which left only the Joint Chiefs in control. I can't think of many foreign governments which would be willing to negotiate with them given the fact they have nothing to offer in return (and their legitimacy is rather questionable). Of course you also need a foreign government in the first place (most of which have been effectively wiped out by nukes, civil disorder, etc). Quote:
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#33
01-01-2011, 12:33 AM
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http://www.nti.org/e_research/profil...zil/index.html Argentina did something similar. http://www.nti.org/e_research/profil...ina/index.html In addition, both countries had a missile program at the time. All of these were cut in the mid-1990's but given the twilight war, they would probably have been accelerated instead. That has not been developped by any of us but it could be interesting to look deeper into these two countries.
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#34
01-01-2011, 07:23 PM
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Oh great what the world needs is two minor nuclear powers....
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#35
01-02-2011, 03:30 AM
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Important in an abstract sense, but not germane to the conversation. Agreements and bookkeeping can be done on paper. I agree moving gold out of Fort Knox is difficult, but if it needed to be done it could. Quote:
If the US government has collapsed, then there is effectively no oversight. Whoever has the technology (if it's nuclear) can trade it as soon as they like without any cumbersome bureaucratic or indeed legal restrictions. A deal could realistically be completed in months, if not sooner. The longest part of the process could be the physical transfer of materials. So, this could certainly happen for the most basic of reasons any trade happens: "you have something I want, I have something you want." Tony
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#36
01-02-2011, 03:53 AM
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They could, not that they automatically would. There's no evidence that either country could complete research and development of their nuclear weapons programs in a timely fashion, if trestarted. This would be a golden chance to accelerate their nuclear development programs by months or even years! An American faction or local commander with the right materials (fissile material, plans, even a completed weapon) could make the trade on their own, with no oversight. If the US government has collapsed, they can't exercise proper control of nuclear materials. Distrust of Brasil or the political cost of support for a potential foe of the UK like Argentina is not a factor. Tony Last edited by helbent4; 01-02-2011 at 04:03 AM.
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#37
01-02-2011, 05:15 AM
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Besides, wait a couple of years until Iran gets the bomb...not to mention a certain terrorist group that divides its time hating Israel and the US... Then you get to see what the TSA really means by "full body cavity search!" And my boss wants to know why I won't fly commercial!!!
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The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#38
01-02-2011, 05:16 AM
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#39
01-02-2011, 08:40 AM
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It's of vital practical importance! With the loss of computer networks, aka the stock markets and banking system, the US is effectively BANKRUPT. They have next to nothing to offer besides the gold (probably irradiated and worthless) or nukes (but anyone caught handing even one over to a foreign power is likely to be shot for treason). Yes, agreements and bookkeeping can be done on paper, but that's not really the point. Without the information from the stock market, banks, etc, almost all of which was lost during the nukes, a country has almost nothing they can use to pay for the needed/desired goods. It's really not as simple as sending a load of say iron ore over in exchange - where is it coming from? How are you going to pay the mining company? How are they going to pay their workers, etc, etc, etc. Even sending gold bars from Ft Knox isn't all that straight forward since "Ten members of the Depository staff must dial separate combinations known only to them"1. How likely is it that all ten people will a) survive the nukes and b) be on hand? It's not like the place has a turnstile for the tourists... Also, as previously mentioned, gold is heavy. It also looses a bit of it's value when people are more interested in putting something edible in their mouths. Of course there's nothing to say it couldn't be used, but it would be damn difficult! Quote:
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1. http://web.archive.org/web/200802010...fort-knox.html
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#41
01-02-2011, 02:36 PM
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Fort Knox
I'm inclined to agree with helbent4 on the subject of Fort Knox. I think as soon as the first tactical nukes start flying around in Europe a great many Governments around the World are going to kick in various contingency plans, and I'd expect that in the case of the US that would include moving gold reserves out of Fort Knox as a precautionary measure.
I don't dispute that it will be a difficult task, although if it takes place in the summer of 1997 vehicles and fuel shouldn't be a problem - I think the problem would be doing it so that as few people as possible actually know where the gold is going (and I wouldn't for one moment think that it would all be going to the same place - I'd expect it to go to a number of different locations). Iirc the 194th Armoured Brigade is stationed at Fort Knox during the opening part of the War, so perhaps they'd be responsible for the movement / security of the gold? Trying to recover some of that gold in 2000 could be an interesting adventure for US based characters in the style of Allegeheny Uprising. (btw I haven't read Armies of the Night for years but recall that gold is central to the plot, so apologies if the above - or a variation thereof - is already covered there) Have to also say that I can't really buy into the idea of a US Military officer (or Government official) being prepared to trade nuclear technology for some counter insurgency aircraft...that seems a somewhat one sided trade to me, although that's just my opinion, others will no doubt vary...
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Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#42
01-02-2011, 03:53 PM
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Other major sites for gold storage is San Francisco and Denver...
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The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#43
01-03-2011, 06:01 AM
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It appears that Ft Knox was not nuked with anything of significant size (Howling Wilderness), but it's unlikely anyone would know for sure it would be spared prior to the exchanges.
It's also fairly likely I think that such a high value facility would be tough enough to withstand a strike nearby (direct hit no so much). In my mind shifting the gold prior to nukes being thrown about creates more problems than it solves.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#44
01-03-2011, 07:15 AM
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I think you're too wrapped up in the intricacies of modern trade and banking. This is more like a drug deal or a black market arms deal (which is literally true). All any trade requires is two parties that have something the other wants. Illegitimate deals like this by definition do not rely on legitimate and conventional means of verification, fiduciary responsibility and due diligence. It's a black market deal. With some experts to verify the materials under consideration, maybe third parties that can vouch for either parties legitimacy, and a deal is done. Tony
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#45
01-03-2011, 07:24 AM
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If you think the civilian government by definition is a bunch of corrupt and lying bunch of scumbags, then it's possible. Or from the opposite perspective the military has already crossed serious lines by launching what amounts to an unsuccessful coup d'etat and remaining in open revolt. Members of either faction could easily be unscrupulous to subvert controls on nuclear technology. People have sold or leaked these secrets before for money or even idealism, even in peacetime. In this case, some kind of airpower in exchange for a 1-shot weapon you may not even be able to deliver might seem like a great deal! For that matter, control is going to break down under the circumstances. It could be a classic "rogue element" acting completely on their own and opportunistically. Tony
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#46
01-03-2011, 07:29 AM
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I was watching the Military Channel the other day while enjoying a tea party thrown by my daughter...they were talking about the F-100 and mentioned a few facts that I think are forgotten when people start talking about bringing boneyard aircraft back into service.
When the F-100 left service in 1979, the surviving airframes were taken to the boneyards, the average airframe had well over 5,000 hours on it and was considered to be worn out. The best of these aircraft were selected for the various foreign military aid programs and ended their lives overseas. What was left in the boneyards were the oldest, most worn out airframes... So if the boneyards are storing mostly worn out aircraft, little better then fodder for a smelter somewhere, just how much could be recovered from a boneyard and restored to flying condition? The impression that I am getting following several internet runs is, not much of a chance. The real number depends on how recently the aircraft was removed from service, and how much foreign intrest there is in purchasing it.
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The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#47
01-03-2011, 08:01 AM
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I still don't buy it. Sure, it is POSSIBLE that MilGov or CivGov managed to purchase and ship to the CONUS some prop driven ground attack aircraft from another continent after the TDM, just incredibly UNLIKELY. If your heart is set on having this scenario occur in your T2K campaign then go right ahead. Its your campaign. But I've read every post in this thread and I'm far from convinced enough to have such a scenario occur in any of my campaigns. Individual tastes vary of course.
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 "It is better to be feared than loved" - Nicolo Machiavelli
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#48
01-03-2011, 08:19 AM
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Of course I'm focusing on modern trade. Even the drug runners would be effected by the EMP and general destruction - those offshore bank accounts holding all their money will be wiped out, just like government records.
The modern world would be completely crippled by the loss of the electronic financial system. Money today, even 20+ years ago, is more data than hard currency, precious metals, minerals, etc. Lose that data or the ability to access and/or verify it, and you wipe out 99% of all modern wealth (it can be rebuilt to some degree using backups and hard copies, but it's not likely to occur for a decade or so given the chaos of T2K). Any deals, provided a suitable entity can be found to negotiate and enact them (Civgov, Milgov, UBF, NA, Scientologists, whatever), will take much longer to work out than today - communications are virtually gone so it would require somebody(s) with authority (and proof of that authority) to actually travel halfway around the world, find another suitably qualified party to talk to (whoever has the desired goods and the will/power to trade them), come to an agreement and then deliver the goods/payment. If you're talking aircraft or other very high value goods, then it's unlikely the payment would be immediately to hand - to risky to carry around before a deal is done. Chances are the goods themselves may not be immediately ready for delivery/collection either... Getting back to the Pucara's there doesn't appear to have been any great need for the second rate aircraft prior to the November 1997 strategic exchanges. Given that the US government didn't fall apart until mid 1998, it's extremely unlikely anyone would have had access to what little wealth was left, especially the essentially loyal military who may, or may not have been interested in purchasing them (I really doubt they would have because it would add another machine to service from the already stretched logistic tail). Between November 1997 and June 1998 (when the government effectively ceased to exist), it's very likely the US government (and most others for that matter) would be squarely focused on civil disaster relief - the overseas military would be forced to fend for itself and fall back on whatever stockpiles remained and a trickle of supplies from home (mainly weapons and ammo as food, medicine, etc would be greatly needed at home). International trade negotiations would be waaaaaay down the list of priorities. Post June 1998 there are two separate US governments, both with claims to legitimacy as well as serious flaws to their claims. It's very unlikely foreign countries (what's left of them) would be rushing to either party to do a deal - my guess is that it wouldn't be until at least 1999 before anyone felt comfortable in talking about anything significant.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#49
01-03-2011, 11:55 AM
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If we agree that the worldwide banking system and stock exchanges would likely be down the toilet for years to come, the gold at Fort Knox potentially takes on huge importance - as you said yourself, besides gold the US has next to nothing to offer in trade (and to be fair they wouldn't be alone in this respect). If we also accept that Fort Knox might not be able to withstand a direct hit, particularly if a high enough mega tonnage weapon is used, what are the risks if the gold is left in place? Presumably worst case scenario is that it's all vapourised, with a close second being that it is so irradiated that it cannot be safely used for decades (at least?). In either event it's no longer a tradeable commodity. So looking at it from the point of view of the US Government's emergency planners as the nukes start flying around in the summer of 97, I think it's possible that they might opt to move at least some of the gold out of Knox to try and protect it from any nuclear attack. As I said, you could be right, but in my opinion the benefits of moving the gold would outweigh the potential risks... Quote:
I also agree that it's possible that someone with access to nuclear knowhow / tech might want to trade it...it's what they plan to buy with it (i.e. the COIN aircraft) that strikes me as unlikely. (FWIW I actually quite like the idea of a rogue element acting opportunistically and trying to trade nuclear tech for their own benefit, possibly by selling it to the highest bidder...could make a great scenario, especially in a European campaign where you could have all sorts of factions competing against each other to buy a backpack nuke from a KGB agent who has gone into "private enterprise"...) Dave
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Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom Last edited by Rainbow Six; 01-03-2011 at 12:20 PM.
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#50
01-03-2011, 01:03 PM
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At the beginning of the war, arms trade will be lively. Especially re-equipping countries with ammunition and missiles. Past a certain point, though (I'd say mid-1997), it will begin to dry up, and cease altogether after TDM.
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com
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#51
01-03-2011, 01:10 PM
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Fly stateside! TSA has a whole new meaning for "up close and personal"!!!!
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The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#53
01-03-2011, 04:39 PM
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This kind of answer always strikes me as highly condescending. I don't need your permission or blessing to do anything in my campaign! To better orient you and everyone else, this is a "thought experiment". That is, I'm trying to see if it's possible. Is it likely? This is T2K. Stranger things have happened. From what everyone says and the mechanics of the situation, I think it's possible. Sure, no one else thought of it before and obviously that's causing a lot of difficulties. The idea appears sound, and it therefore logical, useful, and allowed within canon. Tony Last edited by helbent4; 01-03-2011 at 05:08 PM.
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#54
01-03-2011, 05:07 PM
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Hey, it's a thought experiment. I don't think this kind of trade is as out of the question as you may think. It may seem unlikely, but who would have thought that Hezbollah would be receiving crates of munitions with Israeli markings transshipped by way of Syria from Iran, paid for by US taxpayers? That this deal would not be on behalf of rogue or low-level elements in the military but allegedly authorised at the highest level of government in direct contravention of policy and even the law. The truth is stranger than fiction! Tony
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#55
01-03-2011, 05:28 PM
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I understand you are focusing on modern trade, but it's irrelevant. This is more like barter... you have something I want, I have something you want. No faxes or computers needed! There are still radios, there are ships, there are aircraft (at least in the period I'm thinking of, around 1998). Not everyone is dead, there could still be creditable intermediaries to facilitate an exchange. A deal could be made in a week. Especially if the controls on nuclear materials have broken down. All that's required is someone who sees the need and a way to fill it. As a commander, facing an invasion by Division Cuba in Texas or Cuban incursions into Florida, some kind of "ghetto air force" could far outweigh the negatives of a deal. Hell, I would move heaven and earth to make it happen. Tony
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#56
01-03-2011, 07:20 PM
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Have you considered that if CivGov or MilGov determined that prop driven ground attack aircraft were so desperately needed that they were willing to trade Federal gold reserves or nuke tech to foreign powers to get them, they might also determine on a cost-benefit analysis basis that it would be much more feasible to salvage light commercial aircraft from within the CONUS and refurbish and upgrade them? That would probably be a safer course of action and may even get them their aircraft faster. We already know that after the TDM the various arms of the US military had a surplus of aviation ground crews as they had less and less aircraft to maintain and repair. Sure you woudn't end up with Pucaras. On the plus side you wouldn't need to negotiate with foreign governments, wouldn't need to safely transport tonnes of gold to another continent, wouldn't need to transport aircraft safely back from aforementioned other continent, would be able to use locally sourced avionics, engine parts and weaponry (great for logistical purposes once you start operating the aircraft) and would be able to keep a much tighter lid on secrecy and security for the entire project.
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"It is better to be feared than loved" - Nicolo Machiavelli
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#57
01-03-2011, 07:59 PM
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It's not the tone per se that's condescending and dismissive. It's that blowing off an idea with the caveat that it's fine for one's personal game (which, by definition, could be of any standard) sounds pretty damning, like saying "huh, it's your funeral!". If you weren't aware of this, well, I guess you learn something new every day! This is a thought experiment on how feasible this concept is. Perhaps this kind of deal isn't likely (but then look at other real-life arms deals) and not something you'd do, but is still logically sound all the same. (As a point of fact I probably won't have a chance to use this idea in my game because it's is set in Vancouver, nowhere near the southern USA.) Quote:
Again, permission to follow this idea where it leads is deeply appreciated but in no way required. Plausibility is a matter of logic, too, it's not just personal preference. That is, an idea can be logically sound whether anyone likes it or not, and some obviously don't! Quote:
Also, referring to canon, it's not just a lack of a negative but the fact that Argentina and Brazil were able to accelerate their nuclear weapons programs so radically. Sure, there could be other reasons, but this is a nice way to explain it. It "fits" with canon, not merely doesn't contradict it. Tony
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#58
01-03-2011, 10:22 PM
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<meta>
An outsider uninitiated in our ways might do well to glean something learned in another forum I frequent, in that one is free to be as dismissive and obnoxious as one pleases so long as every dig ends with a few exclamation points and a smiley face. Quote:
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#59
01-04-2011, 12:36 AM
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Ha, sure. Sorry Targan, I shouldn't have taken offense at what you said. After all, if I want to use any clearly stupid idea in my lame-assed retarded game, who's gonna say no, eh?!!!111!!11one!!eleven!!1!1  Tony
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#60
01-04-2011, 01:06 AM
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You raise a very interesting point here (partially answered by the previous idea of a texan airforce flying WW2 aircrafts). Civilian aircrafts would indeed be a very good option to build a rag tag airforce. I don't know how many aircrafts can be around there but that must be a lot. It will include modern and much less modern aircrafts as well. From memory, in the early 1990's no less than 2000 DC-3 (used as spectres in the Vietnam War) were still flying worldwide. It could also include a large bunch of vintage aircrafts including former combat aircraft and trainers. Sometimes ago I had thought about that because I was amused at the idea to have units in the US air force flying A6M Reisen, Bf-109 Emil or Polikarpov I-15. We also often forget something else as we focus on technology. To make a combat capable aircraft your main problem is to get a working engine capable of developping between 80 and 200hp. Your second problem is to be able to fit it properly. Your last problem will be to be fitting the weaponry in an efficient way. For the aircraft itself, all you need is wood and fabric. That is the main weakpoint I see in the ozark's opus, It is much easier to make primitive airplanes.
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