Just In: Osama is dead

[Sanjuro]

Best guess so far for the cause of the helo crash is "vortex ring"- where, when descending in the hover, the air that goes down through the rotors cannot disperse (trapped by a confined space, for example) and flows up and around the outside, then back down again, so the helicopter rotor is trying to fly in a column of air that is falling much faster. Think of it like trying to actually gain height on a Stairmaster and you've got the picture...
The only way to avoid a crash when this happens is to fly forward out of the falling column of air- but if you're trying to descend into a confined space like a compound with high walls you're stuffed!
This is of course only my guess- it fits the reported facts, but it could be completely wrong.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Sanjuro

Best guess so far for the cause of the helo crash is "vortex ring"- where, when descending in the hover, the air that goes down through the rotors cannot disperse (trapped by a confined space, for example) and flows up and around the outside, then back down again, so the helicopter rotor is trying to fly in a column of air that is falling much faster. Think of it like trying to actually gain height on a Stairmaster and you've got the picture...
The only way to avoid a crash when this happens is to fly forward out of the falling column of air- but if you're trying to descend into a confined space like a compound with high walls you're stuffed!
This is of course only my guess- it fits the reported facts, but it could be completely wrong.

I found that explanation quite helpful, Sanjuro. Thanks.

@Leg: It's possible ground fire played a roll in the 'copter's crash but most reports indicate that very little return gunfire was received during the whole of the operation. From what I've read, it seems as though the compound guards were taken completely by surprise. Initial reports suggested a 40 minute gun battle occured after the SEALs arrived. More recent reports indicate that no such gun battle occured and that the compound guards where taken out quickly and without much in the way of resistance.

It doesn't make sense that the government would lie about the cause of the crash. In fact, a helicopter lost to enemy fire would make the raid seem more daring and dangerous and go some way to add justification, in part, to the shooting of an apparently unarmed Bin Laden.

Keep in mind that the fiery crash at Desert One was also due not to ground fire but due to difficult flying conditions, mechanical issues, and possibly pilot error.

[Legbreaker]

I'm still very skeptical about the whole thing. Helicopters aren't silent, no matter how anyone might hope so. I'm sure they would have had at least a few moments notice - just long enough for a couple of people (it would only take one) to grab an AK and let loose a burst or two into the air.

As for why they might keep the true cause of the crash a secret, who knows? Just look at the changing information the US has been releasing in the days since the op - UBL was shot while unarmed but resisting in a fashion dangerous to the seals for example... huh? Was he using harsh language, waving his beard at them in a threatening manner? It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Obviously the downed heli wasn't included in the scripted press release and they've had to make changes to their story on the fly. The same probably goes for UBL's death, real, staged or otherwise. Basically, the way it's all happened has created fertile ground for dozens of conspiracy theories - where's the body for example? "The photos showing his death have been doctored", etc...

Realistically only those few dozen people on the ground at the time truely know what really happened, and they're extremely unlikely to be speaking up any time soon.

Personally I believe they toasted his arse, as to lie about it now (for propaganda purposes) runs the risk of serious egg on face latter on. It's not beyond the realms of possibility though that they've smuggled his still breathing body off to a deep dark hole somewhere for interrogation. Same ultimate result though - his body feeding the fishes five minutes after his usefulness is at an end.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Obviously the downed heli wasn't included in the scripted press release and they've had to make changes to their story on the fly. The same probably goes for UBL's death, real, staged or otherwise. Basically, the way it's all happened has created fertile ground for dozens of conspiracy theories - where's the body for example? "The photos showing his death have been doctored", etc...

Of course there is some level of conspiracy (in fact, secrecy) and, in France, we call that "raison d'état". In 1998, I was finishing my bachelor in modern history at the American University of Paris. We were prosecuting Papon (for his action during ww2) and Miterrand had just declared that the archives would be made available to the public. It was true but for 5% of them. As a good historian, my teacher asked for access to these 5% (after all, the French president had just said that free access will be given to them). On the next day, he received a call from the minister of interior affairs asking him not to try to go any further or he would be thrown out of the country.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Realistically only those few dozen people on the ground at the time truely know what really happened, and they're extremely unlikely to be speaking up any time soon.

Right

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Personally I believe they toasted his arse, as to lie about it now (for propaganda purposes) runs the risk of serious egg on face latter on. It's not beyond the realms of possibility though that they've smuggled his still breathing body off to a deep dark hole somewhere for interrogation. Same ultimate result though - his body feeding the fishes five minutes after his usefulness is at an end.

Then, they would have executed his wife or americans are the most stupid people on the planet (and you know I doubt it).

[dragoon500ly]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

Of course there is some level of conspiracy (in fact, secrecy) and, in France, we call that "raison d'état". In 1998, I was finishing my bachelor in modern history at the American University of Paris. We were prosecuting Papon (for his action during ww2) and Miterrand had just declared that the archives would be made available to the public. It was true but for 5% of them. As a good historian, my teacher asked for access to these 5% (after all, the French president had just said that free access will be given to them). On the next day, he received a call from the minister of interior affairs asking him not to try to go any further or he would be thrown out of the country.

Tell me about it! I was researching Dien Bien Phu for a paper I was writing and filed a request to access the military archives. You would have thought that I had put on a ninja outfit and tried to paint the Effiel Tower red, white and blue! Hostile, threatening and uncooperative does not begin to describe the atitude!!!! So I cut my stay in France short and left for Germany.

Funny thing, I was able to get much easier access to the German military achives and got invaluable help from a trained staff of profesional historians. Never wrote that paper on DBP, but managed an even better one covering the German side of the fighting and surrender of elements of the 106th Infantry Division.

Still, I've always wondered why the atitude, especially since I was only requesting access to the combat logs of the various units involved in the fighting for the Hughette strongpoints...must have been the site of some kind of nuclear research facility......

[95th Rifleman]

I read a joke the other day that made me think.

America has releaseda definitive version of events in regards to bin laden. He was shot by Navy Seals after charging them, mounted on Shergar, wielding Iraqi WMDs and using Lord Lucan as a human shield.

Bin laden was one of the 21st century's most influential men. Think about it, one bloke managed to hide for 10 years while being hunted by the world's biggest (arguably the last) superpower, with all those resources and money behind the search. He was responsible for dragging America into the Afghan war and expending vast resources in the prosecution of that war, a conflict that has dragged so many western nations into it.

Now it's over and he's reduced to a few jokes and conspiracy theories. Yet America is still fighting in Afghanistan.

You can't help wonder who won in the end. Decades from now the conspiracy theories will still be out there and people will still be using his name to justify their terrorist agenda. Even after his death, you can't help wonder who has won really, bin laden or America.

[Sanjuro]

If you can be bothered with 4 minutes of film, here is a demo using a radio-controlled model; the actual phenomenom is at about 2:40, but he explains how he is going to set it up first.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kz_gOWaR7Y
As for China Beach (never heard of it until today!), I watched the opening credits on youtube but none of the helo shots seems to last long enough.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

You would have thought that I had put on a ninja outfit and tried to paint the Effiel Tower red, white and blue!

You should have done that. You would have been recognized as a bright and "avant-garde" artist. You would aslo probably have received a few millions € from the french governement and you would still be receiving money from copyright of all taken pictures.

About DBP you went to the wrong country, you must have gone to Vietnam.

[dragoon500ly]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

You should have done that. You would have been recognized as a bright and "avant-garde" artist. You would aslo probably have received a few millions € from the french governement and you would still be receiving money from copyright of all taken pictures.

About DBP you went to the wrong country, you must have gone to Vietnam.

LOL

I'll keep that in mind the next time I travel to France! Although the IRS would have waaaaay too much fun with me when I return!

As for DBP, it was easy to get info from the Vietnamese (on the other hand explaining to my boss why I was contacting the Viet Military Attache was lots of fun...NOT!). Although I have to admit I was really surprised at the atitude they displayed, certainly not what I expected, even offered to arrange a tour of the battlefield if I traveled to Vietnam, an offer that I make take up some day.

The French Army on the other hand....I was left with the distinct impression that the next combat operation by the Paras would be directed against the hotel I was staying at!!!

Ah well!

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Sanjuro

Best guess so far for the cause of the helo crash is "vortex ring"- where, when descending in the hover, the air that goes down through the rotors cannot disperse (trapped by a confined space, for example) and flows up and around the outside, then back down again, so the helicopter rotor is trying to fly in a column of air that is falling much faster. Think of it like trying to actually gain height on a Stairmaster and you've got the picture...

I think they had this problem with some of the early Osprey test flights didn't they? Lost several aircraft to it in fact.

[Marc]

Hmmmmmm... It seems that we can reconstruct the details surrounding Osama's death in 1/285mm scale!


http://www.gamecraftminiatures.com/s...285mevobl.aspx

[Targan]

What is so strange about a supposedly 'heavily modified' or 'prototype' aircraft experiencing an unexpected critical failure? Its is often said that the more complicated a mechanical device is the more likely it is to suffer a malfunction. Also, new tech often has 'teething problems'.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Targan

What is so strange about a supposedly 'heavily modified' or 'prototype' aircraft experiencing an unexpected critical failure?.

It's the timing of it that I'm seriously suspicious of. Any other time during the approach or withdrawal and fine, mechanical failure it is, but right on target as they're trying to land? I just don't buy it, especially as previously mentioned, they ran through the op dozens of times on a 1:1 model and therefore should have known about any strange air currents, etc.

I don't believe it's totally impossible, just HIGHLY unlikely to happen right then and there.

[Sanjuro]

Legbreaker, vortex ring is nothing new; there is nothing mysterious about it- it is a known risk of descending in the hover, made worse when descending in the hover into a confined space, and when descending quickly. Ever watch the helicopter descent in Jurassic Park? Vortex ring is the reason the helo descends so slowly into that ravine...
All it takes is a slight miscalculation of the horizontal stop point, leaving you with a longer than planned hovering descent, the need to get on the ground fast... it doesn't mean anyone made a mistake, or anything failed- it just means that things can go wrong when you have to do something dangerous (as I suspect you know better than I do...)

[Raellus]

IIRC, the helo crashed after the SEALs it was carrying fast-roped on to the roof of one of the smaller buildings inside the complex. There are a lot of variables there and, no matter how many times the operation was rehearsed with scale models and the like, just a couple of inches could have caused the phenomenon that led to the 'copter's crash.

I've read several articles about the possible stealth technology apparent in the photos of the wrecked tail-boom and none of the sources have suggested it was silent or invisible. I didn't mean to inadvertently imply that this was so. Apparently, if one increases the number of rotors and reduces their size, the helicopter makes less noise. Also, the matte grey paint job is supposed to help confuse IR seekers on shoulder-launched SAMs. The angles of the tail-boom surface and the unusual rotor cap are supposed to reduce the copter's radar signature.

It's possible that the crew had trained in a "standard" spec-ops HH-60 and some little difference in the "stealth" version's performance could have contributed to the crash. Also keep in mind that the choppers had to fly over some very high mountains in order to get to Abbatabad. It's possible that engine strain or something to that effect contributed to the crash.

[WallShadow]

Originally Posted by Sanjuro

Legbreaker, vortex ring is nothing new; there is nothing mysterious about it- it is a known risk of descending in the hover, made worse when descending in the hover into a confined space, and when descending quickly. Ever watch the helicopter descent in Jurassic Park? Vortex ring is the reason the helo descends so slowly into that ravine...
All it takes is a slight miscalculation of the horizontal stop point, leaving you with a longer than planned hovering descent, the need to get on the ground fast... it doesn't mean anyone made a mistake, or anything failed- it just means that things can go wrong when you have to do something dangerous (as I suspect you know better than I do...)

Is vortex ring illustrated in the opening sequence to the TV series China Beach? A medevac chopper is landing between two smoke grenades, and the smoke billows out, up, and around to the tops of the rotors, apparently.