Population

[Matt W]

This is something I once raised on the MP-L Yahoo group. It may explain why I think there's a need for something like the Red Stripe Trading Posts

Population figures for the TMP

One of the fundamental questions of worldbuilding is 'How many people
live here?". So here are some thoughts on some of the larger groups
and cultures. I'm going to go with a total North American population
(canada, US and Mexico) of about 20 to 25 million. (100K live in the Wisconsin Peninsula)

How does your MP universe vary from these figures?

Note: I'm NOT saying that there are - for example - 200 000 people aloft in balloons. I am saying that there are people on the ground who make/repair/support balloonists and that there are 200 000 of them

These are my attempt at the numbers

Ballooners: 200K - Even if they don't have 'airborne cities', I'm
assuming that there are 'cities' to support/manufacture the balloons

Bikers: 100K - very wide-ranging and with good technology

Breeders: 200K - If nothing else, the Breeders should be good at
population increase

Farmers: 2 million - the 'default' category for population outside the
empires and city-states. This covers everyone not classifiable as one
of the other Encounter Groups

Frozen Chosen: 2 million - they cover a wide (and often fertile) area
with a decent tech level

Gypsy Truckers: 200K - see note on Balloonists. Assume that there are
about 2000 trucker clans - each of about 100 people and teh 200 000 includes "gassers"

Inquisitors: 3 million - VERY big geographic range and need population
to support churches and training in their 'art form'

Maxwell's Militia: 0.5 million - Feudal, but high-tech - should have
good health system and incentives to increase population

New Confederacy: 2 million

New American Indians 500K

Oilers: 100K

Rich 5/KFS: 2 million people (including slaves) live in what was once Kentucky, most of Tennessee and part of Alabama

Razers: 10K

Shipmen: 500K (includes their "trading empire" around the Great Lakes)

Slavers: 20K

Texans: 3 million

Townspeople (independent towns and city states): 1 million

Universities: guestimate 250K

Warriors of Krell: 500K (includes the communities they prey upon)

Wanderers: 500K (nomads)

[ArmySGT.]

Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than I would put forth.

There is no major agriculture to support that many. Not enough are banded together is civil governments that would cooperate.

I would go with a quarter of that except the KFS, Oilers, and Krell.

KFS has enough cohesion to bring about agricultural surpluses and feed more, if they are not designating more land to cash crops.

Oilers have the means to power mechanical farming, generate electricity, which in turn can smelt metals and glass. Thusly materials for better food preservation. Many fertilizers and pesticides come from petroleum.

Krell. Its the Mongol horde. It aborbs people, territory, and materials.

[Matt W]

So you have the entire population of North America (outside KFS & Texas) as about 4 to 5 million?

To me, that seems pretty low. Some estimates put Roman Britain as having a population of 3 million - so it doesn't need a lot of space or high tech farming to create a decent-sized population. And I keep pointing out that MOST of the Encounter Groups have at least Tech Level C (1920's technology, and good but limited manufacturing).

The Modules are rarely specific about population of large areas. But, for example, 15 000 people live in the Ruins of Chicago. (7 000 in the "inner city" and 8 000 in surrounding farms).

[mikeo80]

IMHO, Matt is correct. Let me see if I can prove it. I am going to use the canon baselines and explain my assumptions.

Population of USA in 1989 is approx 250 million.

TM 1-1 says 5% alive after BIG bang. That is approx 12.5 million.

Growth to Matt's idea: 25 Million 150 years after BIG bang. That is doubling the population in 150 years. That equals a growth of an average of 83 thousand a year to meet Matt's projection. That is a growth rate of .6% a year. That works out to 6 net new people per thousand per year. I think this is a reasonable set of numbers.

Now let's look at a more pessimistic view.

Let's say 1% survival of BIG bang.

That leaves 2.5 million surviving. To reach Matt's projection, you are talking about a 1000% growth in 150 years. That works out to be a 6.67% Population growth per year. That is 66.7 net new people per thousand. A much more difficult proposition. This might be where the Sgt. is going with his population thoughts. This scenario is not too far fetched. You have thousands of nukes going off. Followed by radiation, followed by illness, followed by starvation.

My $0.02

Mike

[ArmySGT.]

Five years after the Big Bang, how many of that 5% are still alive?

The major agricultural areas of the US are either nuked or down wind of the nukes.

Southern California, Montana, Wyoming, N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio.

Especially across the northern States.

However farmers rely on seed dealers to sell them stocks of hybrid seeds, yearly. Small boutique, specialty, and organic farms do produce from heirloom seeds though in much smaller quantities.

Throw in Agriculture depends on the tractor, animal farming is a quaint hobby these days. It would take a long time to breed livestock for pulling a plow or thresher if any survived.. Subsistance farming by hand might keep a small group alive, they would not have time for anything else. One failed harvest, especially two may doom a whole group.

Radiation is going to induce a lot of miscarriages and non viable offspring, in people and live stock. Probably the first 50 years until the more exotic particle break down, carried away by weathering, or the people leave.

Plagues. Not just our friends like the Black Death, but the Biowar varieties that may linger through carriers. Typhoid Marys.

Pharmaceuticals are gone, as are the producers. One could make penicillin. Where do you get the mold? The petri dishes? The incubation Chambers?

The Big Bang isn't going to spare people because they were smart or have useful skills. Dumb luck is going to save janitors, ditch diggers, and career thugs. So it may take decades of hard won knowledge for a few generations to grow enough food for every one.

Malnutrition curbs growth and intelligence, for example.

I think that the first two or even four generations is going to be very iffy, with may groups dieing out as numbers get to low, or they migrate South.

Then it will start to increase by the fifth generation as deaths decrease, and tech is restored. The Rich Five and the Frozen Chosen may even be the catalyst for the restoration as they bring into the world engineers, doctors, chemists, and others with pre-war knowledge.

Like a flame that is gently restored just before going out.

[Matt W]

*shrug* Population is just one of the backgrounds that should be considered by a PD. However, the only important one is "is this fun?"

It's a matter of preference. I like a world where there has been "some" recovery and Morrow Project teams face the equivalent of City States and large/widespread political groupings based upon things like religion and ideology.

I like to think that my version of the MP Universe allows semi-plausible reasons for the existence of things like (for example) a Neo-Confederate state, Inquisitors, the Shipmen trading empire and Balloonists

Others prefer a world where a few scattered villages scrape a living from the (diseased?) soil and there are no large political entities. If that works for you, I have no criticism.

[ArmySGT.]

Hmm, Well any way you like. That's your game. I just think that in any place that is that well recovered is not going to need the Project, even going so far as to being hostile to the Projects meddling.

The Project personnel are going to get frozen out, as hardly capable hired guns at best. Not enough persons or materials to affect anything when it is an six man team and Texas has 3 million.

[robj3]

Matt, you wrote:

I'm going to go with a total North American population
(canada, US and Mexico) of about 20 to 25 million. (100K live in the Wisconsin Peninsula)

I think this is a reasonable mid-range estimate.

Starting with 1989 populations:
U.S. 248M
Canada 27M
Mexico 82M

95% mortality at 1 year -> 17.8M survivors

Reverting back to medieval or earlier levels of population growth (400 years for doubling implies ~0.175% p.a. growth; 150, ~0.467%) isn't unreasonable given the collapse of agriculture, disease and the effects of environmental contamination (decreased fertility as well as greatly increased mortality from all causes).

Using 0.175% p.a. I get 23.1 million at 150 years post.
Using 0.467% p.a. gives you 35.6 million, natch.

Rich 5/KFS: 2 million people (including slaves) live in what was once Kentucky, most of Tennessee and part of Alabama

I think this is a very reasonable population estimate; you can't get much
lower unless the KFS is a garrison state like North Korea, or in a state of wartime mobilization - which seems unlikely. If the KFS is less militaristic, it pushes the required population up above five million (using countries in a wide variety of conditions as a guide).

As for the geography, it's not much of Alabama, just the upper part (because the Tennessee R. forms the southern border). I can shoot a map your way if you like (827 x 812kb jpeg, 434kb based off U.S. National Atlas map).

ArmySGT wrote:

Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than I would put forth.

There is no major agriculture to support that many.

Maybe. I think this is a lower bound. Here's why:

The absolute lower bound is 0.01 people per square km - hunter gathering levels of population density or ~0.01 x 24,709,000km^2 = 247,090 or about a quarter of a million people.

Agriculture really boosts carrying capacity.
Pastoralism gets you to 1 person per square km.
Shifting farming (slash and burn) gets you to 10.
Traditional farming (pre-industrial agriculture) gets you above 100.
Industrial farming allows densities >1000 per sq. km

(V. Smil, Feeding the World, fig 1.2)

18.6% of the U.S.'s area is arable.
5% of Canada's area is arable.
12.6% of Mexico's area is arable.
Overall - 11.5% of land area, with another 11% for pastures.

As an upper bound using the arable land and pasture percentage and the above values I get:

Pastoralism (cattle, goats, sheep, etc, on arable and pasture land): 5.5 million
Shifting farming (arable land only): 27 million
Traditional farming (arable land only): 270 million
Industrial farming (arable land only): 2700 million

Army SGT:

Five years after the Big Bang, how many of that 5% are still alive?

If you're proposing a two-log (99%) kill or more then that makes the Project extremely valuable in reconstruction. I think the rate of the dieoff levels out, which brings us back to something closer to the numbers above. Call me an optimist.

99% mortality at 5 years implies 3.56 million North American survivors.
Using 0.175% p.a. I get 4.6 million at 150 years post.
Using 0.467% p.a. gives you just under 7 million.

I just think that in any place that is that well recovered is not going to need the Project, even going so far as to being hostile to the Projects meddling.

Trade can be quite a sweetener, especially when you have:
- fusion power
- universal antidote/antibody
- inertial navigation/geospatial information systems (AutoNav)


Rob

[Matt W]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Hmm, Well any way you like. That's your game. I just think that in any place that is that well recovered is not going to need the Project, even going so far as to being hostile to the Projects meddling.

The Project personnel are going to get frozen out, as hardly capable hired guns at best. Not enough persons or materials to affect anything when it is an six man team and Texas has 3 million.

Actually, I should revise my figures. I just checked "Operation Lonestar" and my memory was incorrect. The module lists the population of Texas as 5 million

I understand your point about the relative importance of a small team when it's dealing with a City-State rather than a village - but I don't it think it's too difficult to provide a scenario that will work

For example, let's steal a plot from Shakespeare (I always recommend stealing from the best). It wouldn't be difficult to look at "Julius Caesar" and transfer it to a "New Presidency".
.................................................. .................................................. .
A successful General has expanded the borders. Security, Economic Opportunities, The Rule of Law and something resembling peace are now in existence. The real problem is that many Senators suspect that he intends to remove the last vestiges of Democracy & make himself a dictator.

What does the 6-person team do? Try to protect the new Caesar? Help another candidate run for the election? Try to help in the assassination? Go for the Brutus role or Mark Anthony's? There's likely to be a Civil War if they can't handle it safely. Can the Morrow project broker a truce? If not, whose side will they pick?

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by Matt W

A successful General has expanded the borders. Security, Economic Opportunities, The Rule of Law and something resembling peace are now in existence. The real problem is that many Senators suspect that he intends to remove the last vestiges of Democracy & make himself a dictator.

What does the 6-person team do? Try to protect the new Caesar? Help another candidate run for the election? Try to help in the assassination? Go for the Brutus role or Mark Anthony's? There's likely to be a Civil War if they can't handle it safely. Can the Morrow project broker a truce? If not, whose side will they pick?

IF a Morrow Team plays true to form, they will remain neutral. Or possibly remove themselves totally from the picture. Let the locals figure out what is what and who is who. Kinda like the "Prime Directive" from Star Trek that various and sundry Captains kept breaking to solve their own issues.

One place Morrow Team can be is a truce maker for the treatment of ALL injured. Especially if there is an on going civil war. Help both sides equally. That should confuse the issue with facts!

Another place Morrow can be neutral is in teaching technology. If the team sees a TL C or less, then a course on water treatment, sewage treatment, crop rotation, fertilizer utilization, etc can be given to any one who wants it.

A third level of neutrality is talking to the locals about where they (the team) came from and what the team's goals are. A little shock and awe can't hurt.

Plus if any side wants to get rought with the team, a short demonstration of firepower should resolve the issue. Something like using a .50 (or if you are lucky, a 20 mm) to destroy a large rock. Or a little bit of C-4. No one hurt...but damn those boys with the funny uniforms have some SERIOUS voo-doo magic!!!

my $0.02

Mike

[robj3]

Matt, you wrote:

Actually, I should revise my figures. I just checked "Operation Lonestar" and my memory was incorrect. The module lists the population of Texas as 5 million

You don't need to revise your numbers - you gave a range of 20-25 million and are still in range. As I previously posted, the physical limits to population are pretty wide, given modern agriculture.

I understand your point about the relative importance of a small team when it's dealing with a City-State rather than a village - but I don't it think it's too difficult to provide a scenario that will work

Good scenario - a little bit different to the fare published in the modules.

Six people can make a difference. Heck, one person can change history. They just have to be in the right place at the right time.


Rob

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by Matt W

So you have the entire population of North America (outside KFS & Texas) as about 4 to 5 million?

To me, that seems pretty low. Some estimates put Roman Britain as having a population of 3 million - so it doesn't need a lot of space or high tech farming to create a decent-sized population. And I keep pointing out that MOST of the Encounter Groups have at least Tech Level C (1920's technology, and good but limited manufacturing).

The Modules are rarely specific about population of large areas. But, for example, 15 000 people live in the Ruins of Chicago. (7 000 in the "inner city" and 8 000 in surrounding farms).

Yes, I posit a max of 10 million clustered in areas where energy and agriculture are much easier and winters gentler.

Roman Britain could well have had a population of three million, however they were born into that low tech agrarian existence. My point is that those skills are few in the survivors. The survivors can just as easily be truckers and janitors with no experience at all in growing food, let alone finding edible wild foods. Which is why I feel the population increase is a bell curve with few surviving the first two generations but, by the third agrarianism takes hold and more live to be adults.

As for Tech levels. That is an indicator of knowledge and repair ability. Even if they have a 1920s level of understanding doesn't mean it is all cars, wireless radio, gin joints, machine guns, and well dressed thugs. They just have a better understanding and ability to use stuff of a comparable level. There would not be the supplied raw materials and machinery to go big. Colleges and Universities may not be turning out anyone with skills if the place survived.

[rundlemk1]

Is the general population reproducing faster than it is dying off? That should be the basis for everybodies own individual game. I think you have to look at the population trends at the time of the big boom and go from there.

Another question to ask, is the population being inoculated against any diseases?