Mexico

[Webstral]

I had a look at the Mexican rail map again. I think four strikes out to do it for the Mexican rail network: Los Mochis, Chihuahua, Monclova, and Monterrey. The rail crossroads at Los Mochis isn't actually at Los Mochis, but that's a convenient reference point. Similarly, the points one wants to hit to keep the rail links from operating properly aren't really in the other cities.

Of course, road traffic to El Norte won't be halted by these four strikes. But knocking out the rail ought to take the steam out of the Mexican offensive. The Mexicans may very well try to find some way around the breaks in the network. I've been working on something on the side that posits a train of important equipment arriving in Mexican-controlled American territory just before the Second Mexican-American War starts. In any event, I think the American effort would be to halt offensive operations, not kill millions of Mexicans. We've got to live with these people after the Recovery, after all. This ain't Europe, Asia, or Africa.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Webstral

In any event, I think the American effort would be to halt offensive operations, not kill millions of Mexicans. We've got to live with these people after the Recovery, after all. This ain't Europe, Asia, or Africa.

Yes. I was going to post something very similar yesterday but you've hit the nail on the head, Web.

[Matt Wiser]

That's about what we discussed earlier, wasn't it, Web? A half-dozen or so weapons targeted on their LOCs, and a low-yield detonation on the Presidential Palace in Mexico City to take out the Government. Not turning all of Mexico City to slag, mind you, but taking out the Mexican political leadership in one swoop-and an ALCM set on the "low" setting (10-20 KT) would do just that.

If the weapons taking out the rail net were ground bursts, that ensures that there's no way the Mexicans can work their way around the gaps.

[Legbreaker]

Would you even need to use nukes? Would a few cruise missiles with conventional warheads, or a couple of sabotage strikes not do almost as well?
Carried out at a critical moment, it could absolutely paralyse the Mexican advance and perhaps cause them to fall back to secure their supply lines. Combine it with troubles at home and those rail nexus may never be repaired (at least before the invasion collapsed anyway).

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would you even need to use nukes?

I was wondering the same thing. One possible reason not to use nukes might be the possibility of reprisals against US civilians in US territory occupied by the Mexicans.

[James Langham]

By that time of the war I think people will be regarding nukes as "normal." Plus nukes tend to make the damage somewhat more permanent.

[James1978]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would you even need to use nukes? Would a few cruise missiles with conventional warheads, or a couple of sabotage strikes not do almost as well?

In an ideal world, no. But this is a world where stocks of conventional cruise missiles and smart bombs are going to be severely depleted and what stocks do remain probably aren't sitting in storage in CONUS. Would enough of those weapons or even properly equipped aircraft be available to do the job the first time without having to go back?

[Matt Wiser]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would you even need to use nukes? Would a few cruise missiles with conventional warheads, or a couple of sabotage strikes not do almost as well?
Carried out at a critical moment, it could absolutely paralyse the Mexican advance and perhaps cause them to fall back to secure their supply lines. Combine it with troubles at home and those rail nexus may never be repaired (at least before the invasion collapsed anyway).

Not only is it unlikely there's enough conventional munitions to do the job, but it's becoming time-critical. SOF may also not be available, and rail yards are kinda too big for an SF A-Team. The object of the exercise here is to neutralize the facilities so that the invasion sputters to a halt, and that repair time is going to be....lengthy. There's no other choice. Thus CINC-SAC receives his orders, and several dial-a-yield B-61s get dropped.....

[Legbreaker]

That may be true, however how likely is it that US commanders (especially the President who I believe is supposed to authorise their use) would resort to nukes in virtually their own back yard if they can possibly avoid it?
A couple of B-52's loaded with simple bombs might be enough to get the job done and it's not like they lack the range to strike from wherever they're based. Perhaps a conventional strike(s) to begin with and only use nukes if that doesn't do the job? Could therefore have a couple of targets still non-irradiated that way.

[Matt Wiser]

This is '98: General Cummings and the JCS are the de facto government. CivGov hasn't yet been formed. The Joint Chiefs see a military situation on the southern border that cannot be solved via conventional means alone. Not to mention that SAC's remaining bombers by this time are likely dedicated nuclear strike platforms. The objective is threefold: blast Mexican supply lines to such a degree that effective restoration is almost impossible, force the invasion to a standstill, and to punish the Mexican Government for crossing the border in the first place. The latter is accomplished by a ALCM strike on the Presidential Palace on the "low" yield setting (20 KT). And with five weapons, six at the most, those objectives are accomplished. There's still Mexican forces north of the border, but now they're split into factions, and hopefully can be dealt with in the future.