The world of 2100

[HorseSoldier]

That's not the same as reabsorbing it's historical African colonies, however, which was my point. Not that they'd ignore the continent.

[TrailerParkJawa]

Originally Posted by HorseSoldier

That's not the same as reabsorbing it's historical African colonies, however, which was my point. Not that they'd ignore the continent.

Fair enough! That makes me wonder how difficult it would be for any surviving powers to reinstate colonies or create new ones. France might still have things together compared to all other powers but they are still weak. I see you just Discusssed that in the previous post.

[Olefin]

Sorry but dont see the US falling apart as others have. For one the US is still a very cohesive country from the standpoint of what American culture is. While there are divisions in the country its nothing like what it was in the 1850's and 60's that led to the Civil War.

People have moved too much and there is no real difference in much of the country anymore. If this had happened with no American Civil War in the 1860's then I would say yes. But not now.

Plus the US still has powerful military forces left, both at home and abroad even in 2001. Having CENTCOM come home after securing oil for the US by defending Iran and the Saudis, most likely in 2002 or so, will bring a powerful force, with a lot of equipment, back home - one that has fuel and access to more.

And I dont see the US letting the Mexicans keep most of Texas for long - for one CENTCOM, all by itself, has more than enough firepower to take back Texas from the small Mexican and Soviet forces that are left and keep them out for good. And MilGov, with fuel, has more than enough forces to kick the small Mexican forces out of CA and AZ and NM.

Thats why I discount the 2300AD world totally - sorry but there is no way the US lets Mexico keep LA, San Diego and half the Southwest. The game is a fantasy but all fantasies have some grounding in reality and that happening is non-sensical.

Now does that mean the US starts putting bases all over the world again - in a word no.

But I see them in 2100 still rebuilding, but back to their old borders and perhaps even bigger by absorbing some of the Caribbean nations or parts of Canada as well. With a military that is basically built for continental defense, not for projecting power overseas.

But an America that is what they were until 1898 - one that has big interests in North and South America only and only overseas in very selected places like possibly Iran and Kenya - i.e. nations that owe the US big time from the Twilight War. I..e they may have a very limited presence in the two countries and possibly Korea and the UK as well - but beyond that the rest of the world is left to their own devices.

And I dont see the French as they were in 2300AD. Sorry not going to happen. They just dont have the resource base to do that - and Africa is not going to be of much use to them for a long long time as screwed up as it will be, most likely down to 10-15% of its prewar population and with its cities and transport networks gone.

[HorseSoldier]

But going by the Twilight 2000 timeline, circa 2000 the US is involved in a three way civil war, with two rival claimants to "legitimate" government and New America intent on revolutionary take over. National cohesion is pretty good with a full belly, but the 90's LA riots and Hurricane Katrina call into question how far it floats when things get really red in tooth and claw.

Even with that significant surplus of would be government, huge portions of the nation are in complete anarchy, or under the control of warlords not beholden to any of the three factions, or have some semblance of intact society but have opted to close their borders to outsiders (to include their fellow Americans), i.e. Rhode Island, upper peninsula Michigan, and (MilGov loyalist lip service aside) Utah.

In terms of the playing in the professional Nation-State league, the United States circa 2000 is very charitably "in a rebuilding year." No bowl games likely, and don't look for them to do to well in league play against Mexico any time soon.

CENTCOM is in a tough situation. When the US forces leave, US votes as to how the oil gets distributed go away with the troops. The maximum effective range of an owed favor is about zero meters in geopolitics, and probably less than that in Middle Eastern cultures.

Even if MilGov can pull the remnants of CENTCOM back to the US, they get the same problem they have with bringing back US forces from Europe -- with a domestic economy that can't even reliably cover subsistence agriculture and a domestic security situation that can't even reliably guarantee lines of communication . . . there's just no way MilGov, CivGov, or anyone else is in a position to go on the offensive against Mexico in 2000. Once the US puts its house in order and MilGov/CivGov reconcile or one smashes the other or whatever, maybe then they can turn their attentions to combat operations against Mexico but that's not the summer of 2000. Or 2001. Maybe 2010.

Thats why I discount the 2300AD world totally - sorry but there is no way the US lets Mexico keep LA, San Diego and half the Southwest.

Unless Mexico becomes a nuclear power before the US has the ability to force them back out (technically -- unless one of the rival governments in Mexico's own civil war becomes a nuclear power and threatens their use to maintain war gains). May seem far fetched to our usual stereotypical view of Mexico, but they have a reactor and if it survived the war relatively intact a weapons program is not unreasonable given ongoing/pending conflict with the US.

In a scenario where Mexico has nuclear weapons and the US has nuclear weapons in, say, 2010-2020 I doubt anyone has any enthusiasm for initiating another nuclear exchange to get Texas and SoCal back. In a scenario of potential nuclear exchange, I would venture to guess France might threaten its own nuclear arsenal against either nation if they're the aggressor as well.

Such is the nature of life when you're not at the top, and the Twilight War definitely didn't leave the US at the top of the pile.

[Olefin]

Sorry but I disagree on the offensive part - you are talking about small units now that arent much bigger than present day regiments. They dont have a lot of vehicles so their fuel requirements are a lot less than a full strength division as are their food requirements. And Red Star, Lone Star makes it clear that Texas is doing ok for food production.

And the oil of Red Star, Lone Star would solve MilGov fuel problems, at least for what they would need for retaking most of Texas, quite nicely.

Especially considering the Mexican forces in all of Texas have a total of 12 AFV's and the Soviets have all of 15 tanks left, spread all over southern and eastern Texas. As for manpower 2700 Federales, 2100 Constitucionales, 450 Nationalists and 250 FRMPs and 500 or so marauders with two AFV. The Soviets have another 3000 and thats it.

So you are telling me that MilGov brings home 43000 troops and lets 5400 Mexicans who are fighting each other and a Soviet force of 3000 men who can barely hold onto San Antonio keep Texas and all its oil and other resources? Sorry but if you can bring home 43,000 men even if you have to do it initially with sail transport and coal powered ships you can land a big enough force to take and hold the area around the refinery and the offshore platform. And after that you dont need to worry about oil again at least not for quite a while.

You arent talking about a continent wide offensive here - its take the refinery and the offshore well, hold it and use the gas to expand your foothold. Use the aviation gas to bring back aircraft and now you have the advantage of air power to add to trained troops.

And sure as heck CENTCOM would do it otherwise - two paratroop divisions, two Marine divisions, and a Mech division against what I just described? And the payoff is that MilGov gets to uncap all those oil wells and put them to use with an operating refinery?

You dont bring home men to waste them. You bring them home for a purpose. Otherwise MilGov would have let them sit in Europe - why bring home men you arent going to use and add to your logistics issues.

its not like they were starving in Europe - they had cantonments and were doing ok. In fact thats why several didnt leave.

You bring them back for a reason - otherwise why not just sent them all to the Middle East? 49,000 men sent to CENTCOM would have given them a huge advantage there - they could have destroyed what was left of the Soviets there in a few weeks and told the French to go home as they werent needed.

They only sent 6000 there - thats because the rest they needed at home. And it sure as heck wasnt to just hold the area around Fort Dix and Norfolk - you dont need 43,000 men to do that.

[Olefin]

And the US still has nukes - there are multiple references in the modules to MilGov recovering nuclear warheads at various bases and securing them. Mexico doesnt have any.

[HorseSoldier]

To me it seems pretty obvious that whatever nuclear ordnance any of the various US governments still have access to (and you are correct, there are brief references to them in Howling Wilderness) by the time of the Mexican invasion was not available . . . because if it was, Mexico City and assorted points north of there and south of the Rio Grande would have been vaporized. What, exactly, the lack of a strategic campaign against Mexico indicates is open for conjecture, but it certainly points to some significant problem with the remaining US nuclear inventory (be it political will, communications failures, or possibly a fear of additional launches being detected by the Soviets and somehow triggering a general, city busting, exchange . . . or some other reason).

Now, as to CENTCOM or USAREUR or anyone else sweeping into Texas and sweeping the Mexicans out . . . again, see previous comments about MilGov, CivGov, and everyone else (Mexicans and Soviets in Texas included) being unable to reliably feed themselves or guarantee the safety of their own internal lines of communication. That (plus a whole slew of other problems) is going to combine to mean there's appreciably little industrial economy to support military efforts. After the smash up in Europe with NATO's summer offensive, circa 2000, everybody except the French seem to be so exhausted that bandit suppression is about the limits of what they can manage. Which makes sense trying to get by on a scavenger economy with dwindling resources of pre-war materiel and little to no new production taking place.

And sure as heck CENTCOM would do it otherwise - two paratroop divisions, two Marine divisions, and a Mech division against what I just described? And the payoff is that MilGov gets to uncap all those oil wells and put them to use with an operating refinery?

I think you're grossly underestimating the kind of manpower necessary to just establish and maintain some semblance of control over an area as blasted as the post-nuke US (and elsewhere). I just got back from Afghanistan where about that much manpower backed by every high tech toy we can dream up can't reliably keep the roads open to civilian and military traffic.

And unlike T2K combatants, we didn't have to worry about where our next meal was coming from, didn't have to worry about a breakdown of the medical system meaning that a big chunk of us would die from camp diseases, where out resupply of ammunition/food/fuel/etc would come from (and when it would get there), etc. Honestly, the war in Afghanistan is probably a cake walk compared to what you're talking about.

Actually, if you take the Texas scenario and completely delete the Mexican military and Soviets from the equation, it's quite possibly more than CENTCOM's surviving personnel and resources could handle just to restore and maintain stability in Texas in the middle of a humanitarian debacle and the developing ethnic war between Mexican refugees, Mexican-American communities, and Anglos that GDW talks about in Red Star, Lone Star. We're literally done that mission more than once in real life in the last couple decades, and I think if you asked most staff officers how they'd manage a peace enforcement mission in a country the size of Texas with multiple armed factions -- and do it without air support or any aviation to speak of, shaky communications, no RSTA besides what truck or horse mobile cav can do for you, extremely limited armor and fire support, extremely limited motor transport, and both very limited and very shaky logistics . . . there would not be a lot of optimism in the room.

its not like they were starving in Europe - they had cantonments and were doing ok. In fact thats why several didnt leave.

Units in cantonment (Europe and elsewhere) weren't starving to death circa 2000 for a couple reasons. First, a lot of them had already died from starvation or starvation/malnutrition related diseases and problems in previous winters. (Military personnel deaths were probably more about sustained malnutrition and its consequences than starvation itself, if only because they had guns and tanks and such to ensure that if anyone got food they did). Second, units were eking by circa 2000 by converting their manpower strength to agricultural laborers and were unable to undertake significant military action if it conflicted with planting season or the harvest. Even then, I don't think anybody in T2K's Y2K is doing ok -- at best they're one bad harvest or other disaster away from another winter where old folks and children don't make it and some people end up eating their shoe leather.