An Alternative Survivor's Guide to the United Kingdom

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by RN7

Destroying the third largest city in Ireland (including Northern Ireland) would not exactly be a propaganda coup for the Soviet Union. Attacking neutral Ireland with nuclear weapons would automaticaly turn it towards NATO, as despite its rigid political neutrality on everything (except Britain) its a Western country and has a lot of close cultural and historical links with America. Ireland's relative geographical position on the west coast of Europe and its deap sea ports, anchorages and airports would be of great use to NATO in any operations in the Atlantic or even Arctic Oceans.

I'd say an air strike or a sabotage raid would serve a better purpose against the Bantry Bay oil terminal and Whitegate oil refinery than a nuclear strike. A well planned Spetznaz raid on these targets which are not well defended in the first place would completely knock them out. Unless any Soviets were captured it could easily be blamed on the British who with trouble brewing in Northern Ireland would be seen as the natural culprits. The IRA are also very left wing leaning and would probably even even help the Soviets in return for supplies of modern and heavy weapons. Its not hard to land arms along the south or west coast of Ireland by submarine as Ireland's naval and air patrol resources are tiny. The Germans tried it in the First World War.

I think similar points tend to come up when discussing potential Soviet nuclear strikes on France and consensus on the board has tended to be that the strikes would happen anyway. By November 1997 I'm not sure propaganda would be a major concern, and the canon timeline would suggest that major Naval operations have wound down by then so not sure the Sovs would feel that the risk of bringing Ireland into the War as a belligerent would outweigh the benefits of destroying the oil facilities (particularly since one would imagine the only side likely to be benefit from those facilities would be the West. All in all, I think a nuclear strike on Bantry falls under the category of "Then major industrial and oil centres in neutral nations are targeted to prevent their use by the other side" (BYB V2.0, pg 12).

It could be argued that Cork dodged a nuclear bullet though, as it doesn't appear on any nuclear target lists for the British Isles (although there is a degree of vagueness about strikes on Ireland). To be fair, if the Cork refinery was still operational at the start of 1998, I think the nation the most likely to take action against it probably would be the British - I think we would have the most to lose if Irish forces invading Northern Ireland had access to a full range of POL. In my opinion the probability of the UK nuking Cork is astronomically low (we've all got to live together after the War), so I think most likely option would be some sort of conventional attack, either by the RAF or Special Forces. It's an interesting idea...

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I think similar points tend to come up when discussing potential Soviet nuclear strikes on France and consensus on the board has tended to be that the strikes would happen anyway. By November 1997 I'm not sure propaganda would be a major concern, and the canon timeline would suggest that major Naval operations have wound down by then so not sure the Sovs would feel that the risk of bringing Ireland into the War as a belligerent would outweigh the benefits of destroying the oil facilities (particularly since one would imagine the only side likely to be benefit from those facilities would be the West. All in all, I think a nuclear strike on Bantry falls under the category of "Then major industrial and oil centres in neutral nations are targeted to prevent their use by the other side" (BYB V2.0, pg 12).

Bringing Ireland into the war as a belligerent is not going to make much difference as the Irish don't realy have much of an armed forces in the first place, other than as a source of well known belligerent recruits to other countries armies.

I don't see France been hit too hard if at all by nuclear weapons for many reasons but I don't want to start a heated discusion about that.

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

It could be argued that Cork dodged a nuclear bullet though, as it doesn't appear on any nuclear target lists for the British Isles (although there is a degree of vagueness about strikes on Ireland). To be fair, if the Cork refinery was still operational at the start of 1998, I think the nation the most likely to take action against it probably would be the British - I think we would have the most to lose if Irish forces invading Northern Ireland had access to a full range of POL. In my opinion the probability of the UK nuking Cork is astronomically low (we've all got to live together after the War), so I think most likely option would be some sort of conventional attack, either by the RAF or Special Forces. It's an interesting idea...

I think Shannon would be a more significant target as its logistical value is fairly significant. The Soviets could easily conventionally destroy the refinery and oil terminal without waisting a nuclear warhead on them. Shannon on the other hand would need a nuclear warhead to destroy it as the runway can be repaired if they hit with an airstrike and crater the runway.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I think the nation the most likely to take action against it probably would be the British - I think we would have the most to lose if Irish forces invading Northern Ireland had access to a full range of POL. In my opinion the probability of the UK nuking Cork is astronomically low (we've all got to live together after the War), so I think most likely option would be some sort of conventional attack, either by the RAF or Special Forces. It's an interesting idea...

Personally I think the Irish armed forces would be crazy taking on Britain in any circumstances as their forces are inferior in almost every category. There would be die hard Republican elements even within the armed forces who probably would attack the north before actually thinking of the consequences. Northern Ireland's paramilitary security forces alone are probably equal in strenghth to the Irish armed forces, and the Northern Protestant mentality has been preparing for a "Catholic" invasion since the 19th century.

However British forces could take out any military or civil target in Southern Ireland without to much trouble, and I would agree with you that the chances of a British nuclear strike on Ireland is as low as a strike on Washington DC.

[James Langham]

Originally Posted by RN7

Personally I think the Irish armed forces would be crazy taking on Britain in any circumstances as their forces are inferior in almost every category. There would be die hard Republican elements even within the armed forces who probably would attack the north before actually thinking of the consequences. Northern Ireland's paramilitary security forces alone are probably equal in strenghth to the Irish armed forces, and the Northern Protestant mentality has been preparing for a "Catholic" invasion since the 19th century.

However British forces could take out any military or civil target in Southern Ireland without to much trouble, and I would agree with you that the chances of a British nuclear strike on Ireland is as low as a strike on Washington DC.

IRL there was a plan to launch a rapid attack if things deteriorated in the north (unfortunately I don't have the source handy). It was considered in 1969 before Op Banner started.

In TW2000 there isn't a British Army presence as such as it has been withdrawn. In its place is the UDR which is rolled and trained for internal security duties.

It is not unrealistic to think that they could decide it was possible and achievable, particularly if Catholic repression in the north made it politically expedient.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by RN7

Personally I think the Irish armed forces would be crazy taking on Britain in any circumstances as their forces are inferior in almost every category. There would be die hard Republican elements even within the armed forces who probably would attack the north before actually thinking of the consequences. Northern Ireland's paramilitary security forces alone are probably equal in strenghth to the Irish armed forces, and the Northern Protestant mentality has been preparing for a "Catholic" invasion since the 19th century.

I've always agreed with that point of view, which is one of the reasons my original work has always not had an invasion of the North by the Republic. However recently I've come round to the way of thinking that it is part of the T2K canon so whilst we may find it implausible I think I made an error in not including it in my Alternative version of the SGUK (I think someone mentioned a number of equally implausible events in another thread recently).

Originally Posted by James Langham

IRL there was a plan to launch a rapid attack if things deteriorated in the north (unfortunately I don't have the source handy). It was considered in 1969 before Op Banner started.

In TW2000 there isn't a British Army presence as such as it has been withdrawn. In its place is the UDR which is rolled and trained for internal security duties.

It is not unrealistic to think that they could decide it was possible and achievable, particularly if Catholic repression in the north made it politically expedient.

I think it was code named Excercise Armageddon. There's quite a bit on the web about it these days

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Armageddon

I agree that if stories / rumours start circulating in the south about alleged massacres taking place in the north that could act as a catalyst to send the Irish Army over the border. I don't think it would even need to come in the shape of an official order from Dublin - all it might take to spark it off is for one Irish Battalion CO to decide to take action and it could rapidly spiral out of control, particularly since HMG at the time is virtually decapitated (whether you use canon timeline or mine). The Irish Government may be horrified at what they've started but even if they wanted to try and bring things back under control there's no one for them to talk to in the UK. And, initially, at least the Irish make good inroads into the North, so even if the Irish Government (I'm gonna start calling that EIRGOV for short!) didn't intend to start a War they may not want to stop when they see how it progresses in the opening months at least.

[James Langham]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I've always agreed with that point of view, which is one of the reasons my original work has always not had an invasion of the North by the Republic. However recently I've come round to the way of thinking that it is part of the T2K canon so whilst we may find it implausible I think I made an error in not including it in my Alternative version of the SGUK (I think someone mentioned a number of equally implausible events in another thread recently).



I think it was code named Excercise Armageddon. There's quite a bit on the web about it these days

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Armageddon

I agree that if stories / rumours start circulating in the south about alleged massacres taking place in the north that could act as a catalyst to send the Irish Army over the border. I don't think it would even need to come in the shape of an official order from Dublin - all it might take to spark it off is for one Irish Battalion CO to decide to take action and it could rapidly spiral out of control, particularly since HMG at the time is virtually decapitated (whether you use canon timeline or mine). The Irish Government may be horrified at what they've started but even if they wanted to try and bring things back under control there's no one for them to talk to in the UK. And, initially, at least the Irish make good inroads into the North, so even if the Irish Government (I'm gonna start calling that EIRGOV for short!) didn't intend to start a War they may not want to stop when they see how it progresses in the opening months at least.

Add an unmarked border and intentional or unintentional navigation errors on either side...

I actually quite like the idea of a war that happens by accident !

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I think it was code named Excercise Armageddon. There's quite a bit on the web about it these days

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Armageddon

I always like looking at all the contingency plans drawn up to take control of Ireland during a major war, particulary the German and British plans during WW2. Shows the relative value of Ireland to to others due to its geography.

An Irish newspaper recently posted online that the oil terminal at Bantry was a likely target for a Soviet nuclear strike during the Cold War. Recent Irish State Papers were made available to the public entitled “Strategic Importance of Ireland to the UK in Times of War” sets out the likely role of Ireland in the event of a global nuclear war.

The document drawn up by the Irish intelligence services says that Ireland was under direct threat of nuclear attack with likely targets including the Whiddy oil terminal in Bantry Bay and Shannon Airport. The report also said that Ireland would be likely to assist the UK in the event of a nuclear war with up to 500,000 people available for military service as well as offering sites for missiles, more than 30 airstrips, oil supplies and access to dozens of ports and harbours. Ireland was also identified as a likely staging post for reinforcements from the USA.

During the Cold War Ireland refused to join NATO because Northern Ireland was still a part of the United Kingdom. But Ireland did offer to set up a separate alliance with the USA but this was refused and it was linked in part to the $133 million received from the Marshall Aid Plan. It was also revealed recently that the Irish government started secret transmission of information with the CIA in 1955 from the Irish embassy in London. During the Cuban Missile Crisis the Irish government authorized searches of Soviet aircraft that stopped over at Shannon Airport en route between Warsaw Pact countries and Cuba.

Sort of shows which side the Irish are really on.

[RN7]

From the Belfast Telegraph.

A Soviet war map shows that Northern Ireland was also targeted for nuclear attack during the Cold War, and these targets were pinpointed in 1980 by British defence experts showing the spots they thought were likely to be hit.

Likely targets were the city of Belfast and its international airports. The British Army barracks at Ballykelly, the former US naval facility at Lishally, St Angelo airfield near Enniskillen and the US Navy transmitters in the Sperrin mountains. In British maps RAF facilities in Bishopscourt and Downpatrick were open to attack, along with British Army transmission sities in Co. Antrim and Derry, the British Army military communications facilities in Omaha, and a sea strike at Inishtrahull off the Donegal coast was also predicted. The Soviet were likely to use the SS-4 or SS-11 naval misille.

Personally I think its overkill and most of it is just speculation.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by RN7

From the Belfast Telegraph.

A Soviet war map shows that Northern Ireland was also targeted for nuclear attack during the Cold War, and these targets were pinpointed in 1980 by British defence experts showing the spots they thought were likely to be hit.

Likely targets were the city of Belfast and its international airports. The British Army barracks at Ballykelly, the former US naval facility at Lishally, St Angelo airfield near Enniskillen and the US Navy transmitters in the Sperrin mountains. In British maps RAF facilities in Bishopscourt and Downpatrick were open to attack, along with British Army transmission sities in Co. Antrim and Derry, the British Army military communications facilities in Omaha, and a sea strike at Inishtrahull off the Donegal coast was also predicted. The Soviet were likely to use the SS-4 or SS-11 naval misille.

Personally I think its overkill and most of it is just speculation.

Sounds like a list from a full scale thermonuclear exchange rather than the (relatively speaking) more limited exchange that takes place in T2K.

There's a fairly detailed total exchange type target listing on the sub brit website (although I don't think it goes as far as the Telegraph's one):

http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/featur...dices.htm#app5

My old house is slap between two of them - Pitreavie and Rosyth