Slightly OT: What Would a U.S. vs. Russia War Look Like Today?

[Raellus]

SRBMs and MRBMs are a different game. They have different launch signatures and trajectories than ICBMs. They wouldn't necessarily elicit the same sort of nuclear response.

In your scenario, would NATO take Putin's warning at face value and just wait around to see what happens? I doubt it. Why wouldn't Russia use SRBMs for the sort of strike you're describing? It's been done before, many times, my a few nations, in anger. Using an ICBM would provoke a nuclear response- it's doctrine. The potential risk is too great and the potential response likely devastating.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

SRBMs and MRBMs are a different game. They have different launch signatures and trajectories than ICBMs. They wouldn't necessarily elicit the same sort of nuclear response.

In your scenario, would NATO take Putin's warning at face value and just wait around to see what happens? I doubt it. Why wouldn't Russia use SRBMs for the sort of strike you're describing? It's been done before, many times, my a few nations, in anger. Using an ICBM would provoke a nuclear response- it's doctrine. The potential risk is too great and the potential response likely devastating.

Putin is a calculating and ruthless individual, and I think you have to be to become Russian president and stay there. He is not going to go nuclear and the Americans know it, but he is not going to allow America/NATO push Russia around on its own door step. The world is looking at what Putin is doing, but Putin is more interested in what the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans, the Serbs, Iranians and all the other dictatorships and Russian arms buyers think rather than what the Western and democratic parts of the world are thinking, and he wants to put on a good show for them. China would just love to have the military capabilities that Russia has at its disposal to rub America's nose in it in the Far East and Pacific.

The Russians still have 200 active OTR-21 Tochka (SS-21) and an unknown number of the newer 9K720 Iskander-M (SS-26) mobile SRBM with conventional HE and fragmentation payloads (and nuclear). Their designed for tactical precision strike against hostile artillery and air defence launchers, air fields, command and communications centers and troops concentrations and critical civilian infrastructure facilities, and the SS-26 was specifically designed to neutralize NATO missile defence systems. The SS-26 can be launched within 4 minutes to an altitude of 50km at a speed of Mach 6-7. But it only has a range of 500 km which means if it is launched from western regions of Russia it will barely reach the German-Polish border. They could easily use them on NATO bases and military installations in the Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states and maybe parts of Turkey to the south, but to hit Western Europe they would need bombers and ICBM's with conventional warheads. The Soviets/Russians developed a series of conventional fragmentation HE and submunition warheads for the FROG, Scud, SS-21, SS-23 and SS-26 SRBM's, and I think it could be quite easy for them to retrofit an ICBM and maybe even a naval SLBM with a conventional warhead. Russian SLBM's with conventional warheads would really complicate things for NATO.

SRBMs and MRBMs have a different launch signatures and trajectories to an ICBM as an ICBM enters low Earth orbit, but the flight path and trajectory of an ICBM launched from Russia towards Western Europe would be different to one launched at North America. Also didn't the Soviets develop the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) to confuse American detection systems. It was phased out in 1983 as part of SALT II, but with all the effort that America and NATO has put into ABM systems over the past 15 years wouldn't it occur to Russia to secretly reactivate it for non-nuclear use if it was surrounded by anti-ballistic missile systems?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

Putin is a calculating and ruthless individual, and I think you have to be to become Russian president and stay there. He is not going to go nuclear and the Americans know it, but he is not going to allow America/NATO push Russia around on its own door step. The world is looking at what Putin is doing, but Putin is more interested in what the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans, the Serbs, Iranians and all the other dictatorships and Russian arms buyers think rather than what the Western and democratic parts of the world are thinking, and he wants to put on a good show for them. China would just love to have the military capabilities that Russia has at its disposal to rub America's nose in it in the Far East and Pacific.

True, and, in addition to what you've pointed out here, western Europe is dependent on Russian oil and natural gas exports and so, in all likelihood, will not join in on the stringent economic sanctions which will be necessary to prompt a Russian withdrawal from the Crimea. Putin is a canny fellow, to be sure and he's probably going to get away with annexing the Crimea.

Originally Posted by RN7

The Russians still have 200 active OTR-21 Tochka (SS-21) and an unknown number of the newer 9K720 Iskander-M (SS-26) mobile SRBM with conventional HE and fragmentation payloads (and nuclear). Their designed for tactical precision strike against hostile artillery and air defence launchers, air fields, command and communications centers and troops concentrations and critical civilian infrastructure facilities, and the SS-26 was specifically designed to neutralize NATO missile defence systems. The SS-26 can be launched within 4 minutes to an altitude of 50km at a speed of Mach 6-7. But it only has a range of 500 km which means if it is launched from western regions of Russia it will barely reach the German-Polish border. They could easily use them on NATO bases and military installations in the Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states and maybe parts of Turkey to the south, but to hit Western Europe they would need bombers and ICBM's with conventional warheads. The Soviets/Russians developed a series of conventional fragmentation HE and submunition warheads for the FROG, Scud, SS-21, SS-23 and SS-26 SRBM's.

Exactly, so why use a strategic asset like ICBMs to do job for which capable operational-level platforms already exist?

As soon as U.S./NATO member spy satellites detect the launch signature of a Russian ICBM, it's game over. We know where nearly all of their fixed launch sites are and we're still watching. We'll be compelled to launch a nuclear counterstrike. It would take an incredible- some would say, suicidal- degree of self restraint not to. "There may or may not be a nuclear weapon or three on the way towards us and/or our allies but let's wait and see before responding." AFAIK, that would go against Cold War nuclear warfare protocols.

Yes, conventional-armed ICBMs are an asset that Putin has at his disposal, but he'd have to be daft to use it in the capacity that you are describing, especially, as you just pointed out, since he has alternative platforms which can serve the same purpose (i.e. deliver conventional warheads on targets in East & Central Europe.)

Also, can an ICBM designed and built to hit targets a continent away even be reconfigured to hit much closer targets? I would think not- that's why SRBMs and MRBMs exist, right?

[Olefin]

hell if he really wanted to cause chaos with conventional explosives just use good old fashioned truck bombs using intellgence and Special Forces operatives - and leave a conveniently dead Muslim driver to be found - so that no one suspects Putin did it while maximum disruptions occur

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Exactly, so why use a strategic asset like ICBMs to do job for which capable operational-level platforms already exist?

They only have a range of 100-500 km.

Originally Posted by Raellus

As soon as U.S./NATO member spy satellites detect the launch signature of a Russian ICBM, it's game over. We know where nearly all of their fixed launch sites are and we're still watching. We'll be compelled to launch a nuclear counterstrike. It would take an incredible- some would say, suicidal- degree of self restraint not to. "There may or may not be a nuclear weapon or three on the way towards us and/or our allies but let's wait and see before responding." AFAIK, that would go against Cold War nuclear warfare protocols.

What about the mobile ICBM launchers and SLBM's from submarines? These days Putin doesn't need the hotline between the White House and the Kremlin to contact Obama and let him know his intensions. He could use E-mail, text message, Skype! But seriously if NATO attacked Russia then the gloves would be off wouldn't they as Russia has every right to retaliate. So what about the mobile ICBM launchers and SLBM's from submarines?

Originally Posted by Raellus

Yes, conventional-armed ICBMs are an asset that Putin has at his disposal, but he'd have to be daft to use it in the capacity that you are describing, especially, as you just pointed out, since he has alternative platforms which can serve the same purpose (i.e. deliver conventional warheads on targets in East & Central Europe.)

What about targets he wants to hit in Western Europe and North America?

Originally Posted by Raellus

Also, can an ICBM designed and built to hit targets a continent away even be reconfigured to hit much closer targets? I would think not- that's why SRBMs and MRBMs exist, right?

On 4 March 2014 Russia test fired an RS-12M Topol (SS-25) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile from Kapustin Yar testing ground near the Caspian Sea, successfully hitting its target at a test ground in Kazakhstan. Although the United States had received advanced notice about the test it had coincided with the crisis in the Ukraine. The SS-25 has an intercontinental range of 10,500 km, but the distance the test missile (non-nuclear) travelled roughly corresponds to the distance from Western Russia to Western European countries such as Britain and France.

And what about targets in North America?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

What about the mobile ICBM launchers and SLBM's from submarines? These days Putin doesn't need the hotline between the White House and the Kremlin to contact Obama and let him know his intensions. He could use E-mail, text message, Skype! But seriously if NATO attacked Russia then the gloves would be off wouldn't they as Russia has every right to retaliate. So what about the mobile ICBM launchers and SLBM's from submarines?

And Obama is going to take Putin's word that the missiles are armed with conventional warheads? I guess I'm just a lot more cynical about this point.

Originally Posted by RN7

What about targets he wants to hit in Western Europe and North America?

I don't know how he'd hit W. European targets. Belarus might allow the Russians military overflight permission. In my understanding, Belarus is still pretty tight with the Russians. The Soviets have some pretty capable strike aircraft but I don't think very many of them could get through NATO's air cover. Assuming the Russians would have taken Ukraine, their SRBMs could at least hit targets in Poland. I feel like I sound like a broken record but I just don't see Putin using conventional weapon-armed ICBMs because it could very well provoke a nuclear response.

As for hitting targets in the U.S., don't the Russians still have some submarine-launched cruise missiles that can carry conventional explosive payloads? That would be a safer option because it likely wouldn't set off the same kind of alarms that an SLBM would.

As far as NATO vs. Russia war in Eastern Europe, I think that with all of the Cold War baggage that both the U.S. and Russia still have, neither side is going to want to start slinging ballistic missiles. Now, if the war escalated to a full-blown WWIII-type scenario with fighting spreading across the globe, perhaps that reluctance would diminish. But for a war in Eastern Europe, I don't think so.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

And Obama is going to take Putin's word that the missiles are armed with conventional warheads? I guess I'm just a lot more cynical about this point.

Putin could also use Facebook or Twitter and if he lies to Obama or becomes abusive he could have his account suspended

Originally Posted by Raellus

I don't know how he'd hit W. European targets. Belarus might allow the Russians military overflight permission. In my understanding, Belarus is still pretty tight with the Russians. The Soviets have some pretty capable strike aircraft but I don't think very many of them could get through NATO's air cover. Assuming the Russians would have taken Ukraine, their SRBMs could at least hit targets in Poland. I feel like I sound like a broken record but I just don't see Putin using conventional weapon-armed ICBMs because it could very well provoke a nuclear response.

As for hitting targets in the U.S., don't the Russians still have some submarine-launched cruise missiles that can carry conventional explosive payloads? That would be a safer option because it likely wouldn't set off the same kind of alarms that an SLBM would.

As far as NATO vs. Russia war in Eastern Europe, I think that with all of the Cold War baggage that both the U.S. and Russia still have, neither side is going to want to start slinging ballistic missiles. Now, if the war escalated to a full-blown WWIII-type scenario with fighting spreading across the globe, perhaps that reluctance would diminish. But for a war in Eastern Europe, I don't think so.

Raellus I'm just playing devils advocate here and throwing out a few hypotethical facts. I could not see any of this happening either. But Russia has the capability to hurt Europe and North America if it wanted to without using its nuclear forces and I think most don't realise that fact. In the post-Cold War years we have become used to America blitzing its enemies with its military capabilities, but have forgotten the fact that Russia also remains a formidable military power.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

Russia also remains a formidable military power.

On that, we are in agreement. It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few years as the U.S. downsizes its military while Russia continues to modernize and expand its own. I've read that Putin misses the Cold War and would like to see something similar- he's certainly doing his darnedest to bring it back to life!