Ukraine Fun & Games

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by schnickelfritz

I'm wondering if we need to
I would also encourage the Poles to base some assets there and provide more military assistance to them in the form of better fighters. I doubt they want to feel a neo-Soviet boot on their necks either.

Thoughts?

Dave

The Polish and Romanians have shown some willingness to conduct a peacekeeping mission. Now, the source for that is Senator McCain, who is a big whooping warhawk, but what he said sounds plausible.

[stormlion1]

Not really going to work though. Russia is sitting on top of the Ukraine much less the Crimea while any other force would have to be flown in and would be vulnerable while they set up. The Russians could easily interdict any Desert Shield scenario. I honestly believe this is all over but the shouting.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by stormlion1

Not really going to work though. Russia is sitting on top of the Ukraine much less the Crimea while any other force would have to be flown in and would be vulnerable while they set up. The Russians could easily interdict any Desert Shield scenario. I honestly believe this is all over but the shouting.

I agree with Stormlion. The Russians got what they wanted. No one is going to do much about it. Any one have a guess where the next "annexation" will occur?

My $0.02

Mike

[kalos72]

If this does happen/stay, which we all know it will, it will begin the down ward spiral for us world-wide. NATO / EU / US power will be severely reduced...

But what real options do we have? Send troops to the Baltic and try to force him out?

WWIII with Russia isn't a great scenario...sanctions and political crap are all we have.

Maybe someone will start working on a small fusion reactor now to reduce the dependency on oil.

[Webstral]

The only military solution with any teeth that I can see is an offer of NATO membership to the Ukraine. The Ukraine would have to accept, and a minimum of 250,000 NATO troops would have to go in as soon as logistical realities would allow. The end game would look much like West Germany with contingents from all of the NATO partners based in the country, plus a new set of POMCUS sites established. If the Russians intervene after Ukrainian membership in NATO has been made official, then there is a long term option regardless of how things go in the short term. At the very least, we'd get to find out if the engineering decisions made regarding the M1 played out favorably under less optimal circumstances than during Operation Desert Storm. We'd also get to find out who made the best choices regarding aircraft design.

[schnickelfritz]

How do you see this playing out now given the seizures over the last week?

It would seem the Ukrainians are doing everything they can...probably too much...to make sure they are not the aggressor here. Everyone knows who the aggressor is here...despite the old school Soviet PR campaign.

I am very much in favor of providing military assistance to the Ukrainians by way of something like getting more F-16's for Poland so they can then give their MiG-29's to the Ukrainian Air force, and providing parts and resources so they can get more of their on paper strength actually in the field.

I doubt Pooty wants to go into something and take appreciable losses in men, tanks, or aircraft. If the Ukraine can provide a credible threat to do that, I think he'll pull a Georgia and quietly back off.

The Crimea is gone, but I don't really want to see a good chunk of the rest of the country fly the hammer and sickle again...er...Russian colors.

Seeing the hammer and sickle waving at some of these protests is at best chilling.

I used to work with a proud Russian who was ironically born in Kiev (his Father was Russian in the Soviet Army) and he was proud to the point that it blinded him...wow. You'd think the Soviets beat Hitler with one hand tied to hear him tell it...repeatedly. It got to the point where I brought in figures of all the crap we gave them in WW2 and how many were lost getting it there. He thought it was all western propaganda...yeesh.

-Dave

[Webstral]

The Crimea is now Russian, for all intents and purposes. At this point, that situation can only be reversed by force of arms.

As for defending the rest of the Ukraine with NATO, it's really an effort for the logisticians. If the Ukraine were to accept NATO membership, and if NATO were to decide to commit fully to defending its new member from aggression, then the first bottleneck would be the rate at which troops could be deployed from NATO base areas to the Ukraine. Military aircraft could bring in the rapid deployment forces, but it would take heavy divisions to do the job properly. Air power alone won't cut it. It's either troops on the ground ready to fight or it's just another Western effort to substitute cash and technology for commitment.

I wonder who would be willing to provide ground forces for the Ukraine. Technically, every NATO member not on the front line ought to be sending forces forward. The Brits would pitch in, of course. The French probably would, too. Germany? Canada? Italy? Spain? Greece? The former Soviet satellites probably would be the most receptive to a request for troops.