OT? A New Cold War

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

So we still have the issue of Russia in Syria, and as Russia knows that it is there to stay as long as it wants it can also place whatever it likes in Syria. The more I think about it the more it strikes me that Putin as pulled off a masterstroke here. He can if he wants to help Assad or Iran target the entire Middle East and Europe from Syria. Russia already has Su-34 strike bombers at Latakia Airbase which has a combat range of 1,000 km. Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, Turkey and Greece are easily in range. So if Russia decides to place anti-ballistic missiles, a squadron of Tu-22M bombers with a combat range of 2,400 km, or enlarges their naval dock at Tartus to support nuclear submarines, and then decides to bomb anti-Assad forces outside of Syria what can be done about it?

That is possible, but Russia will have to all of that while fighting jihadists/rebels/freedom fighters. That is much easier said than done.

If Russia wants to take its place as greatest of all the "great satans", why try to stop them? Let them deal with what Western Coalitions in Iraq and Afghanistan have been dealing with for the last 14 years- a seemingly unstoppable stream of very persistent local and foreign insurgents/jihadis dedicated to their destruction.

Also, any Russian strategic assets based in Syria will be fairly isolated and nearly surrounded by unfriendly parties- Turkey to the north, Israel to the South, NATO's Mediterranean assets to the west. I see that as more of a strategic liability than a strategic asset.

The alternative to Russian involvement in the Syrian Civil War is what? More NATO muscle-flexing? Ultimatums? More sanctions? Then what? A tussle between NATO and Russian combat aircraft in Syrian airspace? The place is a tinderbox under a powder keg. You've got Iranian interests at play there, which the Saudis will no doubt act to counterbalance, you've got NATO, you've got ISIS, you've got Kurdish rebels, you've got Hezbollah, you've got a very nervous, very jumpy Israel watching from next door...

There's no easy solution, especially a military one.