Possible Module Followups

[Olefin]

Some desertion sure - 80 and 90 percent? No way - especially since staying together means you can protect the food you are growing and can beat off marauders and desperate people looking for food

and in this case they would be getting fed - i.e. they are in cantonments and getting fed thru that whole period - its not till after April that it becomes apparent there is going to be a big time problem with getting food -

look at A Rock in Troubled Waters - per that article there is no problem feeding the soldiers and civilians in southern NJ - and they have comparatively easy duty with the State Militia to back them up - and yet they desert in huge numbers compared to say the 43rd who was surrounded on all sides by marauders and hostile forces but still was in pretty good shape right up to the April 2001 mutiny

and if anything after it was known that food was going to be tight it would be a bigger incentive to hang together - good luck keeping any food you grow if its you and your M-16 at your family farm holding off thousands of hungry people

on the other hand 1000 massed M-16's protecting the fields and food supplies in your cantonment probably would do the job easily

[The Dark]

I can see both sides of the argument. On the pro-desertion side, when these guys hear things are going to hell in a handbasket, a lot of them are going to want to get back to their families, similar to how the rate of desertion of Georgian troops in the US Civil War spiked during and after Sherman's siege of Atlanta. In the Appalachians, there were instances of deserters from the Confederate Army forming their own units that fought off Confederate regulars. A historical study of the deserters found there were two common factors that led to desertion: hardship among their families and finding out their home district wasn't united in support of the effort. With the MilGov/CivGov split (and New America), there's likely to be wavering support in many districts, and severe hardship among soldiers' families, which will cause desertion higher than usual. I don't know if it would reach 80-90%, but given that the Soviet Border Troops had 60-80% desertion rates during the Afghanistan War, it's likely it would be much higher than most people would suspect.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Some desertion sure - 80 and 90 percent? No way - especially since staying together means you can protect the food you are growing and can beat off marauders and desperate people looking for food

Easily.. 90 percent... Napoleons campaign into Russia. These units your talking about as "Divisions" with that number are a Division on paper. A company is approximately 100 men. A Battalion is 3 to 5 companies (CA 3 and CS or CSS 5), a Brigade is 3 to five battalions..... These "Divisions" are below the operational strength of a Brigade. Their already broken, demoralized, under trained, under staffed, and without Corps or Army commands to make even the suggestion of Orders.

Why stay? These troops are in the Continental U.S. and probably desperate for news about family after the TDM and with the drought. A unit this size goes through tons (literal tons) of food and fuel per day. What ever rations they have are coming from somewhere else because in less than a month a unit that size will have consumed every scrap of food and eaten the livestock.

Grow food? Who is doing that for them? These guys grew up in NY, LA, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Dallas, Houston, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Nashville, etc, etc, etc... The 18 - 30 year olds have never ever grow anything let alone seen a garden. Before you think "Ah ha! Someone comes from somewhere food grows". The overwhelming majority of the services are low income urban kids. The small town kids you hope could grow something came from towns, not farms. Even the kids that grew up on farms joined the Army to get away from that. They can drive the tractor, but probably know little about seed, planting, maintaining, and harvest.

The only way anyone of these "Divisions" is growing food is to enslave the locals or barter for the locals to grow it (aka extortion).

Originally Posted by Olefin

"and in this case they would be getting fed - i.e. they are in cantonments and getting fed thru that whole period - its not till after April that it becomes apparent there is going to be a big time problem with getting food - "

Fed what? Three squares? There is being fed and then being fed.... For 54 days in 2003 I ate two MREs a day because the supply chain couldn't keep up and the trucks essentially mugged by units before they reached us. Is that fed? Yeah. I hate peanuts and peanut anything to this day.

Troops are getting fed and if you ask a Soldier anywhere, chow sucks. Food is probably the number one morale item. Lots of food and lots of variety prepared better than a 5 star steakhouse and don't skimp on any trimmings.

Now in this.. Boiled potatoes, soup, bread, and butter is fed. Troops down at the bottom, the Privates and Corporals have no idea and no thought to next month. Their immediate concerns are today and tomorrow (when do we quit, when do we eat, when can I drink, what time do I have to be back) not April, May, June or any other date.

Getting food is on the G3, and each layer of S3 below that guy. Those guys probably have to move about with bodyguards by this point.

Originally Posted by Olefin

look at A Rock in Troubled Waters - per that article there is no problem feeding the soldiers and civilians in southern NJ - and they have comparatively easy duty with the State Militia to back them up - and yet they desert in huge numbers compared to say the 43rd who was surrounded on all sides by marauders and hostile forces but still was in pretty good shape right up to the April 2001 mutiny

Being on the coast those troops are probably damned tired of cod, but love those virginia hams. NJ borders Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York city so benefits from the Pennsylvania Dutch, and trade still coming to the docks in NJ and NYC. Not being landlocked is probably the secret to that success.

Originally Posted by Olefin

and if anything after it was known that food was going to be tight it would be a bigger incentive to hang together - good luck keeping any food you grow if its you and your M-16 at your family farm holding off thousands of hungry people

6-8 people in a log stockade can hold off hundreds on foot. Even with bow saws and not chainsaws a frontier fort can go up quickly. Farm animals on the ground floor is free heat to the humans on the second and third floors. People have been doing this for centuries. More over those are people you know and can count on (mostly) who aren't going to desert you or throw you out.

Originally Posted by Olefin

on the other hand 1000 massed M-16's protecting the fields and food supplies in your cantonment probably would do the job easily

Oh yeah... 1000 rifles in the hands of 18 year olds with impulse control issues that hate being told what to do and hate their squad leader, platoon leader, and LT because he is white, black, hispanic, asian, northern, southern, red neck, cholo, ghetto, ignorant, too smart, etc, etc.

Doubt that. Snuffy is going to take his pack and his rifle and go home even if he has to walk there. That 1000 other guys isn't family and few of them friends.

The only thing keeping Pvt Snuffy from deserting really is the very real threat of death by hanging if he is caught after deserting.

[Olefin]

Those guys have been growing their own food for quite a while - the basic supply system broke down in 1998 and they have been growing their own since 1999 - so even if they are city dwellers they would either have gotten used to planting their own crops or they would have found people to do it for them while they guarded them - which is another argument against them going over the hill - i.e. if they didnt know how to grow food good luck surviving on their own

As for the 78th - they werent getting any food coming in from NYC - and as A Rock In Troubled Waters states the Amish areas (Lancaster PA is mentioned specifically and thats where they are) were overrun by refugees and basically on the edge of starvation - meaning they werent getting any food from there - and HW does say the Amish basically got wiped out - thus the area around them is basically starving while they are getting fed and no one is hungry in their area - thus deserting makes no sense - versus say being based in West Texas where any drought means pretty quickly you are eating your own leather shoes after the last of the rations runs out

So again 80-90 percent desertion rates when a) they are growing their own food and able to feed themselves and defend that food when going AWOL means you might starve and b) the areas around you are overrun with marauder and bandit and cannibal groups that love to pick off small encampments and family groups - which you would know after seeing that happen ever since 1999 - is definitely not realistic

[Olefin]

its very interesting how much Twilight 2000 and its fan base is split up like the Christian church is - with the Howling Wilderness/Kidnapped defenders in many ways being like the born again Protestants who defend every word in the Bible as being canonical no matter what it says even if it contradicts itself

Meanwhile those who dont want to use HW and Kidnapped or argue for changes in them in many ways are more like those in the Church who are more willing to accept that perhaps some areas of the Bible may have issues, either from translation or who actually authored them and need to discussed and debated to determine those particular areas of validity within the overall Church canon

i.e. to use an example - those who see HW and Kidnapped as canon and have no issues with it even if it contradicts earlier canon versus those who see that the drought as described would have killed off the US for good and there would have been no MilGov and CivGov to make peace in 2020 (Traveler 2300AD timeline canon which came from the Great Game) let alone the contradictions in HW to earlier canon releases that they say should be resolved in a possible re-release or correction

And FYI - one reason I have argued over the years for an update to HW is that there are modules released after it came out that could radically change its proposed history - getting the sub home with those two scientists means you have a nuclear sub to generate power and electricity somewhere on the US East Coast (not mentioned in HW) and you have two scientists in the US that can make cheap fusion reactors with materials that could be scavenged (definitely not mentioned in HW) - let alone getting the weather satellite data from Satellite down (again not mentioned in HW) - add all those in and the supposed history of 2001 after April could be changed immensely from what Loren wrote

Example of why writing new material can be an issue if you try to please everyone - lets say I did a story where the 28th Infantry (which is the PA National Guard) (who showed up at Bremerhaven organized and following command orders loyal to MilGov and the US Army per canon in Going Hom ) as a body leaves Norfolk, goes to PA and finds some of the other troves mentioned in Allegheny Uprising to equip itself with Bradleys and other vehicles and then starts to stabilize the state - you will have those who will really enjoy that and avidly read it - and others who will cry "not mentioned in HW at all!" and argue that it cannot be considered canon because it wasnt in HW when it was released (even though having the 28th go home to PA is basically common sense)

and for the record I can see both sides of the argument and the validity of both sides and appreciate how both sides feel (as a Christian too - lets say my family encompasses both sides of the Bible argument and it does make for lively discussion)

[mpipes]

I guess I am a heretic!!

I changed what I did not like in the campaign I had/have.

The US was not a total basket case. A LOT of nuclear power plants were intact. The Anniston Army Depot (and a tank plant), Red River Depot, and quite a few refineries in OK and Arkansas/Louisiana were intact. F-16 factory in Ft. Worth undamaged along with F-15 plant in St Louis. The Lima tank plant undamaged. York, Pa vehicle factories untouched.

Overall unit strength was down to about 1/4 pre-war. Average NATO vehicle strength was down by 75% on average with a few units having about 1/3 tank strength. Pact units down to between 10% to 30% vehicle/personnel strength.

Yes, you had a lot of devastation. But I just did not buy into the TOTAL devastation you see in HW. Neither side launched all their nukes. What was launched was a strike aimed at power/energy infrastructure - a limited countervalue strike. Unless you had both sides going for an all out countervalue strike aimed at the populations - cities- A LOT of people, and more importantly, a lot of industry will be unharmed.

I also did not buy 100% into the EMP damage being as severe. Not that it could have been done, but I think technical limitations on the existing ICBM/SLBM force would have limited the ability for either side to get nuclear weapons into optimal positions for the EMP effect contemplated by GDW. I think EMP would have been more localized. Also, a lot of stuff would be stored in metal building that I have often thought of as giant Faraday cages.

[simonmark6]

"It's very interesting how much Twilight 2000 and its fan base is split up like the Christian church is - with the Howling Wilderness/Kidnapped defenders in many ways being like the born again Protestants who defend every word in the Bible as being canonical no matter what it says even if it contradicts itself

Meanwhile those who don't want to use HW and Kidnapped or argue for changes in them in many ways are more like those in the Church who are more willing to accept that perhaps some areas of the Bible may have issues, either from translation or who actually authored them and need to discussed and debated to determine those particular areas of validity within the overall Church canon."

Not really, although trying to reduce a debate to a specious ad hominem false analogy in order to belittle those that disagree with you lowers the strength of your argument somewhat.

Instead of arguing over the validity of the "reality" of a work of fiction that by the nature of the collaborative story-telling element of the art form means that everyone's game will be different and will deviate from canon maybe we should focus on having fun and adding to the body of work so that people can enjoy whatever they want to take from it.

You've already done this with your new sourcebook and I'd suggest hat instead of looking to re-write canon by revisiting modules that exist that we look at expanding the areas covered before we go bac to anything already done.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by simonmark6

"It's very interesting how much Twilight 2000 and its fan base is split up like the Christian church is - with the Howling Wilderness/Kidnapped defenders in many ways being like the born again Protestants who defend every word in the Bible as being canonical no matter what it says even if it contradicts itself

Meanwhile those who don't want to use HW and Kidnapped or argue for changes in them in many ways are more like those in the Church who are more willing to accept that perhaps some areas of the Bible may have issues, either from translation or who actually authored them and need to discussed and debated to determine those particular areas of validity within the overall Church canon."

Not really, although trying to reduce a debate to a specious ad hominem false analogy in order to belittle those that disagree with you lowers the strength of your argument somewhat.

Instead of arguing over the validity of the "reality" of a work of fiction that by the nature of the collaborative story-telling element of the art form means that everyone's game will be different and will deviate from canon maybe we should focus on having fun and adding to the body of work so that people can enjoy whatever they want to take from it.

You've already done this with your new sourcebook and I'd suggest hat instead of looking to re-write canon by revisiting modules that exist that we look at expanding the areas covered before we go bac to anything already done.

I definitely plan on adding to the canon for sure - way too many areas not covered - even possibly looking at a collection of how countries not mentioned were affected by the war so people could use that as a basis for adventures

[Jason Weiser]

Then why even have the argument? Simon, you just basically in one breath, accused Olefin of belittling those who disagree with him, and saying "to each their own"?

I kind of wish some folks had taken that attitude with the DCWG.

Here is my biggest issue with the strict canon fans: When will they get in the ring? They tell us "How dare you write that!" and proceed to tear the author, whom has worked his ass off on a given work, I assure you, but did they write anything themselves? Nope. When I did my Australian target list, I did it partly to prove a point: The Twilight War was a WORLD war. Nobody was immune, nobody got off scot free. Was it a world ending event? No. But it is one that will be felt for a while.

So here is my challenge to the strict canonists: Write something. You don't have to submit it to Marc..but you do have to submit it for peer review here. I for one, would like to see what you come up with.

So, gentlemen, the gauntlet has been dropped..are you willing to pick it up?

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by Olefin

So again 80-90 percent desertion rates when a) they are growing their own food and able to feed themselves and defend that food when going AWOL means you might starve and

How are they growing their own food? Where did they get seed stock? Where did they get fertilizer and top soil? Where did they get tools? Where did they get tractors? Where did they get the discs, harrows, plows, brush cutters, seed drillers and other equipment for the tractors? Where did they come up with the knowledge and experience? Where did they learn to dry, pickle, preserve, an, and bottle it all before it just rots? That is far too muh hand waving of the details. Growing food in a garden is a skill. Growing food for hundreds is a master class in industry.

Originally Posted by Olefin

b) the areas around you are overrun with marauder and bandit and cannibal groups that love to pick off small encampments and family groups - which you would know after seeing that happen ever since 1999 - is definitely not realistic

Those groups are not realistically going to last. Defenders with preparation have the advantage, it take three to five attackers for each defender. an they siege you? Yes, probably. If those groups are starving as badly as you say they are; how long an they lay siege?

It takes an overwhelming number of attackers with their own large supply of food and everything else to take any kind of fortification. These marauders aren't going to be harvesting crops, the will want it piked and processed. That again lays the odds into the farmers favor. A simple five sided block house with rock infill, an be built in a few days. Built on opposing corners of homes and barns with food and water they an hold a homestead versus dozens of attackers. Look to frontier forts of the American expansion into the South West.

As for cannibals, simple disease will take are of them. That is one of those PAW memes that are made to mush of. Human flesh would have to be cooked very thoroughly do to infect anyone eating it.

[Olefin]

Per canon the military formations are growing their own food by 1999 in the US and overseas - so pretty obviously they got what they needed to grow food the old fashioned way - they took it by force! Or they gathered up the local farmers and had them grow it for them in exchange for protection

In other words the cantonments are the feudal system all over again with the local lord protecting the farmers who in turn feed the lord and his troops.

So you cant say - well there is no way they would be growing their own food so I agree with canon desertion rates because they would be starving - when canon says they have been growing their own food for two years

thats why the fires flush that unit out of North Carolina - because the fires burn up the crops they were growing and leave them no choice

And Simon - definitely want to add to the canon - the issue is that trying do so in North America, given the contradictions, errors and other issues with HW and Kidnapped you either have to say "nope not going to write in NA" so I dont ruffle feathers and instead describe areas like East Africa that werent previously described - or I have to face it head on, correct the canon as much as possible or put my spin on it and go from there - and as I said that's definitely going to cause issues

and frankly there are lots of good stories in NA and the time is coming to face facts that HW needs to be revised or corrected - and that the events and timeline that Loren came up with - as well as the drought itself - are problematic and need to be corrected - notice I said corrected - not ignored, not completely rewritten but corrected

starting with addressing the incorrect desertion rates and other obvious inconsistencies and the fact that the sub made it home - and what happens afterward with the scientists and a sub to provide power to the Cape May or Norfolk area from its reactors

and that a one year short fall in rain can be addressed with irrigation techniques that go back 7000 years - and that dont need electricity to make them work - you can do it with manpower alone - if the Sumerians did it then the Americans can

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Per canon the military formations are growing their own food by 1999 in the US and overseas - so pretty obviously they got what they needed to grow food the old fashioned way - they took it by force! Or they gathered up the local farmers and had them grow it for them in exchange for protection

In other words the cantonments are the feudal system all over again with the local lord protecting the farmers who in turn feed the lord and his troops.

That sets the stage for mass desertions right there. When the General declares himself King and the Colonels are now Dukes, the soldiers will rightfully and legally rebel. Those are not legal orders. What you are suggesting is called Extortion.

I promise you, if I were in that situation and the General declared we would be extorting food from civilians I would apprehend him, his staff, and anyone that obey such an unlawful order. Given the exigencies of the system, they would likely found guilty by Trial, then hung from the neck until dead.

Even the FEMA "powers" by Presidential Executive Order (President J.F. Kennedy) are on very weak legal ground with more than enough justification for Citizens to ignore them and arrest anyone that invokes or obeys them.

The chain of command is failing and falling apart in those units with offiers and senior non commissioned officers torn between MilGov and ivilian Gov.

Units loyal to the United States Constitution and units "Going Feudal" aka marauder firing upon one another... another reason desertion is 80-90%.

Originally Posted by Olefin

So you cant say - well there is no way they would be growing their own food so I agree with canon desertion rates because they would be starving - when canon says they have been growing their own food for two years

That is inconsistent with the famine too. If no one is growing food, then how is it that units in Cantonments are able? Without tools, seed stock, the means to preserve a harvest, or the knowledge to do any of that. These units are succeeding. That in and of itself is a logical inconsistency.

[Raellus]

Guys, please be careful regarding the canon debate. It's historically been pretty toxic here.

It's really cool that Marc Miller has dubbed Olefin's East African Sourcebook canon. Is Mr. Miller sole arbiter of what is and what isn't canon? I don't know. Does his nod make Olefin a co-arbiter of canon? Should we take it on authority, second hand, that HW is no longer canon? This is a slippery slope.

Let's all keep in mind that T2K is whatever the GM running the campaign wants it to be. If a GM likes the America described in HW, cool, let him use it. If a GM hates it, cool, let the GM build a different setting more suited to his sensibilities. Different strokes and all that.

Secondly, there seems to be a bit of a double standard at play here. If it's OK for members to critique HW, it should be OK for members to critique fellow members' works as well. Constructive criticism is not off-limits. According to forum guidelines, criticism is OK as long as its asked for, constructive, and doesn't devolve into personal attacks.

Lastly, if we want to debate the merits (or lack thereof) of HW, there's a whole thread already devoted to that.