One Second After (A novel about EMP)

[Raellus]

Sometimes I like to torture myself by listening to Sean Hannity (a conservative American radio talk show host and Republican party apologist) on my way home from work and today he had on an author by the name of Forstchen who was promoting his fictional account of a "Black Swan" EMP strike on the U.S.

The book is called One Second After.

Although it's fiction, the author stressed the realism of the scenario he presented in the book and stated that a single, powerful EMP strike on the U.S. could, within a few years, lead to a casualty rate of 90%. The guy wants Americans to lobby their congressmen to resume funding for some EMP defense research program I didn't even know existed.

Granted, I tend to take everything that Hannity and members of his mutual admiration society say with at least a grain of salt, but the claim cited above sounds pretty extravagant. I'm of the school of thought that believes a T2K type war would ultimately result in a return to the Dark Ages (at least politically, socially, and economically, if not technologically) but a 90% death rate after a single EMP attack?

Anyway, I won't be spending my hard-earned money on the hardback edition out now but I'm wondering if I should pick up a copy when it comes out in paperback.

Anyone read it?

[pmulcahy11b]

The back story of the Dark Angel series goes into an EMP strike (two bombs, I believe) on the US. There wasn't 90% casualties, but as the original introduction to the shows says, "The United States went from a superpower to a third world country in an instant." There are pockets of high technology, but not many.

[kato13]

The problem I have with such a scenario is that the US being destroyed is not in the interest of other nations which could provide equipment to rebuild the infrastructure. I would expect that within a week ships and aircraft from the UK, France, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan would be on their way loaded with equipment.

I picked these countries as there is a history of either long term protection or previous reconstruction assistance by the US. Of course I expect other countries would help out as well.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by kato13

The problem I have with such a scenario is that the US being destroyed is not in the interest of other nations which could provide equipment to rebuild the infrastructure. I would expect that within a week ships and aircraft from the UK, France, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan would be on their way loaded with equipment.

I picked these countries as there is a history of either long term protection or previous reconstruction assistance by the US. Of course I expect other countries would help out as well.

I agree -- imagine the vast market for electronics that would exist in the US after even a small EMP event!

[Nowhere Man 1966]

I think EMP is overrated unless you are right next to the source. I think most cars would still run although there are a few that can be knocked out but on most tests, you just turn the key and it will start again. Auto electronics are generally designed to withstand a lot of harsh conditions. Generally if it isn't hooked to the power mains and you have your antennas folded or disconnected, it will most likely survive. The computer you are using now has a good chance of being fried but the one that is disconnected and sitting on the shelf in your basement or Bob's Computer shop should be OK.

[Legbreaker]

There's some very good stuff here especially towards the bottom http://forum.juhlin.com/archive/index.php/t-267.html
Basically, EMP is nasty. If it's not shielded, chances are something is going to happen. Exactly what, and how much is the question....

Note that your suggestion in that thread that the body will act as a Faraday Cage has been disproven.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

There's some very good stuff here especially towards the bottom http://forum.juhlin.com/archive/index.php/t-267.html
Basically, EMP is nasty. If it's not shielded, chances are something is going to happen. Exactly what, and how much is the question....

Note that your suggestion in that thread that the body will act as a Faraday Cage has been disproven.

I could see it if you have a Corvette or some other car with a fiberglass body but for the most part, the car's body would act as a Faraday shield. I know the same effect occurs with metal aircraft too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage

I think EMP is mainly a danger to large scale things like power transmission but I think the small stuff will be OK if it is shielded fairly well or disconnected from any antennas and power sources. I'm not saying it is nothing to worry about but it isn't the 800 lbs. gorilla it is made out to be, actually it is more like a 400 lbs gorilla.

Chuck M.

[Legbreaker]

I think you should try reading the entry you're refering to.

You'll note that for a faraday cage to be effective, any holes in it's surface must be smaller than the wavelength of the EMP - usually nothing much less than a solid surface is going to cut it, and as as cars, trucks and buses have windows, etc....
Also, to be effective, it must be grounded. A cars rubber tyres are an effective insulator preventing the necessary grounding taking place.

Parts of a car may be protected, but as the wiring looms commonly travel through all parts of the vehicle, AND anything worth protecting is almost invariably connected to something which is in an exposed area....

As stated in the previous EMP thread, tracked, armoured vehicles are less likely to be effected because they're surrounded in armour AND their metal tracks effectively ground them. There is likely to be some impact on them however, but it is likely to be less than a civilian vehicle.

It really does come down to luck of the draw on the whole though. Nobody to date, and I rather doubt in the future too, has conducted wide scale testing of vehicles specifically to determine the effects of EMP. We can assume though based on the minimal testing which has been carried out, that some vehicles, regardless of age, will be more or less suceptible than others.

Aircraft are another matter altogether. I believe most are built specifically with the possibilty of outside interference in mind with vital components shielded and redundant systems. This is especially true with the larger passenger aircraft carrying millions of people every day, and even more so (one would hope) in the multimillion dollar military aircraft our various governments are so proud of. The average private small prop driven aircraft on the other hand....

[Raellus]

An episode of Futureweapons a season or two ago focussed on EMP. The host drove a '80s or '90s model car (a Cadillac maybe?) under an EMP generator and the pulse killed the car dead. Granted, it was directly beneath the EMP (no more than 10m away) but still.

And I think the point of the book is that without a functioning power grid, it matter worth squat whether any of your home appliances survived the EMP. They wouldn't work without a reliable electrical current.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I think you should try reading the entry you're refering to.

You'll note that for a faraday cage to be effective, any holes in it's surface must be smaller than the wavelength of the EMP - usually nothing much less than a solid surface is going to cut it, and as as cars, trucks and buses have windows, etc....
Also, to be effective, it must be grounded. A cars rubber tyres are an effective insulator preventing the necessary grounding taking place.

Parts of a car may be protected, but as the wiring looms commonly travel through all parts of the vehicle, AND anything worth protecting is almost invariably connected to something which is in an exposed area....

As stated in the previous EMP thread, tracked, armoured vehicles are less likely to be effected because they're surrounded in armour AND their metal tracks effectively ground them. There is likely to be some impact on them however, but it is likely to be less than a civilian vehicle.

It really does come down to luck of the draw on the whole though. Nobody to date, and I rather doubt in the future too, has conducted wide scale testing of vehicles specifically to determine the effects of EMP. We can assume though based on the minimal testing which has been carried out, that some vehicles, regardless of age, will be more or less suceptible than others.

Aircraft are another matter altogether. I believe most are built specifically with the possibility of outside interference in mind with vital components shielded and redundant systems. This is especially true with the larger passenger aircraft carrying millions of people every day, and even more so (one would hope) in the multimillion dollar military aircraft our various governments are so proud of. The average private small prop driven aircraft on the other hand....

Well, the Faraday Cage doesn't always have to be grounded to be effective, some say the rubber tires would actually help. I do remember when I was a kid, some 1960's era cars had grounding strips.

Aircraft, I would say it is possible you would lose the radio and navigation aids but the plane would still run, most small private planes run off of a magneto system. I remember one of my teachers in high school (he's pushing 90 and still flies as well as teaching his great grandchildren how to drive) flew B-24's in World War II and remembers lightning striking them but there was no effect, granted back then, it was all vacuum tubes.

I do agree with you that there is a matter of luck, other factors, maybe even God Himself, who knows, but I do understand it is the roll of the dice, I just really don't think EMP is the 800 lbs gorilla it is made out to be, more like a 400 or 500 lbs gorilla.

Chuck M.

[Abbott Shaull]

That would be the main problem. How much of the power grid would be destroyed. You have the event, and then as those areas stop, you have the effects of the surrounding grid try to compensate for that and some of this could be damage a great extent. How much will be effected, we may never find out.

Yes, with out the power grid, and if you don't have access to generator, your appliance at home will not work anyways. Then you have the entire problem of moving things from point A to point B. Or if the EMP area had such facilities as refineries or petro-chemical plants and how many they affect. Well, if you don't get gas for the generator it is worthless after you run out, or the fact you may have to chose traveling or having power.

90% seems high, but it can be possible. We have grown into society that depends too much on services that we take way to much for granted. With an EMP event say in or around Houston, LA-Long Beach, NYC-Boston, Chicago, or some major city along the Mississippi could have that affect. All for very different reasons too.

Just some thoughts

[Graebarde]

IMHO IF a strike such as this occured, and IF it was effective in knocking out the majority of power, without outside support and in short order the US would be in a world of hurt.

Depending on the time of year the attack occurs speeds the disaster results. IF it is mid winter, with sub-zero weather over 3/4 of CONUS, the deaths from exposure (lack of heating) will take it's toll on a large number of persons. Those trying to heat with wood in homes/structures not designed for the purpose will 1) burn the building down and those around it as there will be limited fire suppression due to lack of operational fire apparatus and/or lack of water pressure; 2) carbon monoxide poisoning due to fumes from fires in enclosed areas by those not venting the structure properly. This will be the first wave of death.

Food distribution will fail within two weeks without transportation. People in the US typically have less than two weeks food in their homes (Yes Virginia there are people with long term food supplies, but MOST do not). FEMA will NOT be able to help the whole country and the goverment does NOT have long term supplies of processed food on hand. Government stockpiled food has never existed, rather it is raw materials in farm bins or warehouses around the country which must be processed to some degree and still be transported to the urban centers.

Medical facilites will 'shut down' for practical purposes as we know them now without energy to run the life support systems, OR and ER will be by lamp light at best. Thousands will die in short order without the medical support we now have, many within minutes of the lights going out, others taking days perhaps weeks.

This the tip of the iceberg.

IF the attack is in warmer seasons, the exposure losses will not be a great, however food loss due to lack of refrigeration will climb rapidly. FOOD shortages will cause riots in the urban areas and roving bands of hungry persons will start moving out of the cities within two weeks.

The defense forces (law enforcement/military) will be hindered with transportation problems as much as anyone. Communications will be negligable in the worst case scenario. Their thoughts, totally understandable, will be for the safety and well being of their families rather than a bunch of strangers.

I would predict the fall to anarchy in large urban areas would be rapid as the bangers take advantage of the situation.

Yes there will be local areas that will fair better than others, not because they are out of the path of violence or luck as much as the leadership of persons who quickly identify the situation for what it is, and have forsight in what it will take to survive until 'essential' resources/services are restored. They will NOT sit back and wait for the feds or even state to come to their aid. They will organize, inventory, allocate and do what is necessary to maintain order on the local level.

Enuff ramblin'

Grae
(thought on the subject for longer than most of you have been alive)

[natehale1971]

Thank you Grae... you hit on what the guy who wrote the book was talking about... the social chaos would be.... well, horrible to say the least. It won't just be groups of urban street gangs would see this as their chance to increase their turf. but the really nasty criminals out there like the various ethnic Mobs that have been growing as problems across the country. I was told by a local police officer that the local chapter of MS13 has access to major miltiary hardware (from the way he was acting it was M60s, grenade launchers, ect), and he was really upset when they found this out when they had uncovered them. And was even more upset that the police where told NOT to allow the local press or citizens to find out about what they found. He was in the US Army, and had been a SAW gunner. And he said what they had their hands on was heavy crew served weapons. I'm ex-Navy, so i'm just guess what they've gotten their hands on.

We should also think of charismatic manipulator types who've been local political activitists taking advantage of such chaos after national communications have been knocked out thanks to a major EMP attack.

They are out there... Someone on the T2k Wiki came up with the Peoples Republic of Boulder as an example of what this can become.

Has anyone been watching the news about how ACORN is being investigated for curroption charges? I've used ACORN as an example as a grassroots organization that could easily become an "Alliance for a Progressive New America" in my campaigns when it comes to 'New America' just to break away from the usual 'ultra right-wing organization'...

[Targan]

What is MS13?

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Targan

What is MS13?

A really nasty LA street gang, primarily composed of Central American immigrants.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mara_Salvatrucha

[Ramjam]

To ask a silly question.

But how would portable generators fair against a EMP if they were turned off at the time?

I keep getting this stupid thought in my head that if you got a few stupidly large generators (like the trailer ones you see at concerts etc) you might be able to run a small town of of them.

Yes I know the fuel bill would be high but if it meant keeping power to the only hospital for miles etc the locals might be willing to sacrifice the fuel.

[natehale1971]

As long as they weren't in operation (ie, having an electric charge flowing through them) when the EMP.. they'd still be usable.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by natehale1971

As long as they weren't in operation (ie, having an electric charge flowing through them) when the EMP.. they'd still be usable.

That isn't my understanding of how EMP works. At least, it doesn't work as a general rule. And I think it would depend on how old the generator was. The older it is the less likely it is to be badly damaged (with some possible exceptions such as, for instance, modern day safety switches and circuit breakers might actually help protect them).

In any case I'm pretty sure that while something like a generator might not work due to EMP they aren't actually all that complicated in their basic workings. Modern day electronic power regulation systems attached to the generator may not be fixable but with a bit of trouble shooting, re-wiring and/or re-winding the spool I'm pretty sure someone with a bit of electrical knowledge could repair one to the point where it would deliver electricity.

[Legbreaker]

EMP is a beast with a life of it's own. This is a GOOD THING for GMs, bad for anyone trying to model how it actually might effect things should the balloon go up.

As a rough rule of thumb, anything that's not shielded and grounded is going to be adversely effected by EMP. A trailer mounted generator left outside is likely to be so much scrap metal after it's exposed, however as Targan has stated, anyone with a bit of electrical and mechanical knowledge (and access to undamaged replacement parts or manufacturing facilities) should be able to get it up and running again with a little effort.

However, if the same generator was stored in an underground garage of a high rise building, or better yet a mine shaft, the chances are quite good it will still be functional afterwards.

Ultimately though it's a crap shoot. It's up to individual GMs to decide for themselves just how much survived, how much is repairable, and how well the equipment will operate. It may be easier for survivors to simply scrap the damaged machinery for parts to build wind, water, animal or steam powered generators.

[Marc]

Bon dia!

Just a few notes. Being or not being in operation does assure protection against EMP effects. The EMP can generate its own magnetic-induced current in any conductive element belonging to any electric or electronic device. No need to be connected to a source or running. The vulnerability is the worst for the electronic components, which are generally designed to operate between very low and delimited parameters of current and tension. Of course, if the device is not connected to the electrical power supply, you eliminate one possible vector of aggression: the induced intensity in the electrical network. Any normal electrical protections, like these we have in our homes or in the factories or offices we work, will not work properly. I will try to explain me…First, I have my own doubts about if they will switch-off the load from the power supply, given the frequencies and emitted by the pulse and its short duration. And second and more important: at best, if these protections work, they will isolate your home / factory / office from any effect coming from your power supply, but if you are still inside the effect radius of the EMP, you will have your own short, powerful and “private” induced current in all the conductive elements independently of any protection. The short wavelengths detected in an EMP causes that a lot of electrical circuitry could work as an antenna. For example, for an electronic plate protected by a simple fuse, the device will be fried regardless of the state of the fuse. The short wavelengths detected in an EMP causes that a lot of electrical circuitry could work as an antenna.

And talking only about the generators, their electronic parts are few and simple. Lots of them (especially those that must be transported by trailers) have metallic enclosure and all of them (if installed properly) have good ground connection. If the generator is not connected in any way, its chances to survive will be better.

[pmulcahy11b]

Here's a random thought: would the re-bar in reinforced concrete act as a sort of Faraday Cage?

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by natehale1971

Thank you Grae... you hit on what the guy who wrote the book was talking about... the social chaos would be.... well, horrible to say the least. It won't just be groups of urban street gangs would see this as their chance to increase their turf. but the really nasty criminals out there like the various ethnic Mobs that have been growing as problems across the country. I was told by a local police officer that the local chapter of MS13 has access to major miltiary hardware (from the way he was acting it was M60s, grenade launchers, ect), and he was really upset when they found this out when they had uncovered them. And was even more upset that the police where told NOT to allow the local press or citizens to find out about what they found. He was in the US Army, and had been a SAW gunner. And he said what they had their hands on was heavy crew served weapons. I'm ex-Navy, so i'm just guess what they've gotten their hands on.

We should also think of charismatic manipulator types who've been local political activitists taking advantage of such chaos after national communications have been knocked out thanks to a major EMP attack.

They are out there... Someone on the T2k Wiki came up with the Peoples Republic of Boulder as an example of what this can become.

Has anyone been watching the news about how ACORN is being investigated for curroption charges? I've used ACORN as an example as a grassroots organization that could easily become an "Alliance for a Progressive New America" in my campaigns when it comes to 'New America' just to break away from the usual 'ultra right-wing organization'...

One would be surprise how much hardware that many of these organization have procurred over the years.

There are the normal Soviet and Chinese arms that flow, but old excessive US arms that people have forgotten about. If they were to go looking for, wouldn't think twice if it wasn't where it was suppose to be. It not just crew served weapons either. There plenty of old battle rifles and other equipment that use heavier rounds, or the generic sub-machine gun that these people have gotten hands on.

It is amazing how stuff that is suppose to make it from Point A to Point Z through all other points in between, how things could come up missing.

I remember being in the 82nd Airborne Division and some nimrod misplaced their M16. The entire Battalion + spent time out in the 100 Acre Woods looking for it (memory is fuzzy what area it was), and this was for days. They stopped all training and everything else in the Battalion. Don't know how the nimrod didn't realize their weapon was missing. Supposedly it was missing a couple days before they went back to barracks, and...blah, blah, blah.

The thing is the powers may be is that they realize if they didn't recover the weapon, someone else out there would of. Even the locals had enough information, they knew when troops were going out to the various areas. Enough of them had been in to know where the troops spend the night in these areas. There were enough who would go out searching for this or that shinning thing out there, that are from time to time left behind unintentionally. A missing M16 or any other weapon like that is prize that would draw them out like moths to the flame, no matter how locked down a unit is.

Also if one realized how many National Guard and Reserve Armories have been compromised, it would scared most people. Now, think about that many patrol cars in the urban centers now carry CAR-15s, if not M16/M4 flavor of variety. It mind boggling on one hand, but on the other hand, I can see why the power maybe keep this information from the General Public Joe Smoe. One the other hand, if the situation presented itself, it could led to a mess that no one wants to admit too.

The sad reality, many local Law Enforcement and even many State agency have been out gunned on the the streets. Those who have been blissed by ignorance are the lucky few, the ones who haven't know their fine line of having a really good day, and a real shitty one. When they are having shitty day, everyone else will be too.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Here's a random thought: would the re-bar in reinforced concrete act as a sort of Faraday Cage?

See message #8 above....

Originally Posted by Abbott Shaull

I remember being in the 82nd Airborne Division and some nimrod misplaced their M16. The entire Battalion + spent time out in the 100 Acre Woods looking for it (memory is fuzzy what area it was), and this was for days. They stopped all training and everything else in the Battalion. Don't know how the nimrod didn't realize their weapon was missing. Supposedly it was missing a couple days before they went back to barracks, and...blah, blah, blah.

I've been on the other side of that. While playing OPFOR in Queensland Wide Bay training area, we stumbled upon an F88 Steyr AUG rifle on one of the shooting ranges. All weapons from both our "enemy" unit and the battalion we were up against were accounted for and the weapon itself appeared to have only been laying there a few days at most.
How easy it would have been to strip it down and put it in one of our packs. Only a handful of us even knew of it's existance before it was handed in....

Later on that same exercise, elements of our "enemy" group found a marajuana plantation located just a few dozen kilometres away...

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

See message #8 above....

I've been on the other side of that. While playing OPFOR in Queensland Wide Bay training area, we stumbled upon an F88 Steyr AUG rifle on one of the shooting ranges. All weapons from both our "enemy" unit and the battalion we were up against were accounted for and the weapon itself appeared to have only been laying there a few days at most.
How easy it would have been to strip it down and put it in one of our packs. Only a handful of us even knew of it's existance before it was handed in....

Later on that same exercise, elements of our "enemy" group found a marajuana plantation located just a few dozen kilometres away...

What scary is some other unit had left it and some how not accounted for it. It happens a lot more often than people want to admit. Especially in an age when Officers are more worried about advancement, than actually reporting the weapon was lost. Of course the poor sod who lost would be transferred or kicked out of the military, but that minor note.

Like I said there are enough people who live outside many of Military Bases who would be too willing, for the right price to go looking for stuff laying around after field exercises. The security at lot of the bases was a joke by any standards in the Cold War, let alone during the War on Terror.

A marajuana plantation wonder if the weapons was one of the growers. It the times we live in. They have been growing the stuff in our National Parks for years, or for that matter anywhere they can think no one will find it. Let alone, it hasn't been unheard of a few plants being found growing 'wild' in the more remote areas of military bases.

[TiggerCCW UK]

That's one way where there are extra weapons knocking around here - old terrorist caches, sometimes dating back to the home rule crisis of the early 1900's. Plus when the terrorists decommisioned their weapons this time round I'm sure not everything was got rid of, and the terr's armouries included weapons up to DShKa's, SA-7's, RPG's and LPO- 50 flame throwers.

And as a side note to military weapons ending up in the wrong hands;

Back in the early '90's when the SA-80 was fairly new in service a patrol was mobbed in a town called Coalisland. They couldn't open fire on a crowd of unarmed civilians so they attempted to withdraw. In the course of this three troops were relieved of their weapons by the crowd, a gimpy and 2 SA-80s. The gimpy was never recovered, but the SA-80s were found dumped in a field minus their magazines. How much faith does that give you in your weapon - even terrorists don't want it!

[headquarters]

Originally Posted by TiggerCCW UK

That's one way where there are extra weapons knocking around here - old terrorist caches, sometimes dating back to the home rule crisis of the early 1900's. Plus when the terrorists decommisioned their weapons this time round I'm sure not everything was got rid of, and the terr's armouries included weapons up to DShKa's, SA-7's, RPG's and LPO- 50 flame throwers.

And as a side note to military weapons ending up in the wrong hands;

Back in the early '90's when the SA-80 was fairly new in service a patrol was mobbed in a town called Coalisland. They couldn't open fire on a crowd of unarmed civilians so they attempted to withdraw. In the course of this three troops were relieved of their weapons by the crowd, a gimpy and 2 SA-80s. The gimpy was never recovered, but the SA-80s were found dumped in a field minus their magazines. How much faith does that give you in your weapon - even terrorists don't want it!

when I was on exchange with a Brit unit .

being "LINKS" -shooting on the left hand side did not improve my impression of it as it would throw brass in my face with every other shot .I did like the heft of it though ,small and handy -and a good optical sight that allowed for fairly long range engagements ,as well as decent night optics module for it .
My HK AG-3 ( G-3 to most of you ) felt like a Brown Bess compared to it .I could easily carry 400 rounds more ammo for it ,reloading a mag with fresh rounds was quicker than my battle rifle and so on .

But it had issues with the bayonet ( minor concern )but still,it didnt take STANAG mags all that well (US mags would stick in the well causing jams) ,it wasnt suited for lefties/southpaws and it ws bullpup which I dont like due to the controls being away from the trigger group and that its uncomfortable to carry laying across the forearms on longer treks.Although I am a convert to 5,56 today ,I felt it was a peashooter compared to our .308 AG-3 and the ranges /effect hat round gives .

Sadly ,AG-3 thefts from our mobilization armouries have occured ,and some have ended up in the wrong hands in places like Northern Ireland etc .I remember the lads berating me for it ,they were due to possibly rotate to Northern Ireland or some such.

About society loosing its electronics- I guess one of my major concerns would be the individuals acting in their own best interest while still wielding the vestiges of their former official powers .Police,army and local goverment people need food and have vices like most others .Requisitioning stores for "official uses" and stepping out of line in regards to teh populace would be easier with no internet,radio,printed press or telivision to spread the news of what was happening.