YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

Olefin, you make some mighty big assumptions that cannot be claimed as fact, they are supposition based upon your opinion. You cannot claim that anything is "most likely would have been" when you base your information on the real world situation after the Cold War was officially ended. If you could produce legitimate sources from before 1990 (i.e. before the end of the Cold War and the start of the "Peace Dividend") that back up your claim that these transfers would "most likely have happened", then I'll happily stop arguing your claim.
Until such time as you can produce those sources, all you have is wishful thinking and that ain't research.

Sorry but the canon as a whole is all about might have beens. My suppositions are based on real world events. The Belgians were in the process of adding new vehicles to replace the old AMX vehicles when the Cold War came to an end. Those old AMX vehicles would have been surplus to their needs and thus would have been transferred. The new APC's they were getting were much more modern and thus effective.

Mexico was in the market for new APC's and thus the transfer that occurred in the 90's of the old AMX vehicles is a very likely occurence whatever the timeline. Especially given the fact that the Mexican Army was already operating French equipment and lots of it

Including 120 ERC-90 armored cars that arrived in the 1980's (i.e. during the Cold War) as well as Milan missiles (also during the Cold War), as well as 40 VBL (Cold War in the 80's), and 48 VCR-TT APC - thus given that level of equipment already from France getting even more French designed APC's would be of great interest to Mexico

Thus my supposition is based on real world facts - and I have legitimate sources from before 1990 - which by the way are the same ones the canon authors had that the Mexican Army would be operating French equipment - to back up the sale of those ex-Belgian Army APC's to Mexico - ones that they would have no longer needed once they had the more modern equipment to replace them

And also backed up by the canon writers who said specifically that the Mexican Army had no main battle tanks - that what they had were French armored cars and French APC's - which is exactly what I am saying was sufficient enough for the canon invasion to have occurred

especially against a US Army that by mid 1998 was low on fuel, low on spares and had most of its armor overseas and no easy way to get it back home

[StainlessSteelCynic]

And again you make suppositions without anything other than what you think would have happened. Where is the proof that the Belgians would have sold those vehicles rather than put them into war-stores?

My argument here is not about how correct or how wrong the original material is, it isn't about how overwhelmingly unrealistic some of it is, it is not even about what fixes Olefin, Buddha, little green men from Mars or anyone else in the universe chooses to apply to the game.

It has always been about the belligerant & insulting manner in which the original authors have been criticized for being unrealistic when the person supplying that criticism is himself making some claims that fall into that category.

For instance, the BDX vehicles belonged to the Belgian gendarmerie (aside from about 60 or so used by the air force for airfield defence units) and not the army. The gendarmerie was a paramiltary police force with some military duties. The BDXs were for rear area defence and internal security, they were not subject to the same use or replacement policies as the army's APCs.
The claim that they "most likely would have been sold to Mexico regardless of T2k timeline" based upon the post-Cold War reality that they were sold in the real world is entirely speculative and not supported by any official Belgian source from before the 1990s (i.e. the period of time before the Peace Dividend was in effect and the vehicles were declared surplus to requirements).

[Olefin]

"It has always been about the belligerent & insulting manner in which the original authors have been criticized for being unrealistic when the person supplying that criticism is himself making some claims that fall into that category."

Sorry but no one is being either belligerent or insulting of the original authors.

And the claims that I am making are totally realistic

Fact - the Belgians were in the process of replacing their old APC's with new ones, many of them built in Belguim

Fact - the Mexican Army was operating a lot of French equipment as was trying to get more to modernize their army - and was buying mostly from the French so that it wouldnt strain their logistics system which already sucked

Fact - the Belgians would have most likely wanted to get rid of their older APC's now that they had new ones - which is indicated by the real world draw down in the 1990's

and also the canon - the three day stand in Texas by a bunch of military cadets, the fact that the School Brigade - with basically anti-aircraft weapons used against armor and the very nature of the Mexican Army who had never bought main battle tanks previously in the history of their armed forces except a few Stuarts that were used as recon armor and not tanks all add up to a Mexican military that would not have suddenly bought hundreds of tanks

and canon - the forces that were left in the US could not have stopped a Mexican Army as depicted in the fan canon sourcebook backed up by a Soviet Motor Rifle Division from taking a hell of a lot more territory unless every unit left in the US went to engage them - which THEY DID NOT - especially two armored brigades that for sure would have engaged them -
that alone shows that they could not have had that much heavy armor

in fact the canon saying that when the 197th did enter Texas it only did so to fight the Texian Legion and marauders tells you that the Mexicans didnt have any heavy armor of their own along for the ride

and my objection to canon comes down to the Mexicans being able to hold what they took for any length of time past 2000 considering the amount of new veteran US troops brought back to the country, considering that many of the areas they held would have had almost no water when the US cut off the supplies and that they were fighting a Civil War and had almost no logistical support of any kind

So am I objecting to the invasion itself - no - what I am objecting to is a very obviously flawed fan canon sourcebook that adds so much in the way of overall TOE to the Mexican Army that you would have to not just rewrite canon you would have to literally tear it up and ignore it - including Frank Chadwick's Mexican Army post in Challenge, the US Army Vehicle Guide and its dispositions of US forces after the invasion and Red Star Lone Star - in fact the only Mexican force with tanks is in City of Angels and its considered apocrypha mainly because of the sudden appearance of so much Russian equipment and almost no Mexican

if the Mexicans had built up a force with that many tanks the US would have only had one way to stop it - and basically that would have meant multiple nukes on both the US and Mexico in places like Texas, California, AZ and NM - and again thats a big time rewrite of canon history

You are looking at a Mexican Army with literally almost 1500 tanks plus Division Cuba against one armored division, one reforming mech division fitted with whatever tanks they could grab and two tank brigades that never even engaged the invasion - all low on gas and ammo - good luck stopping that short of Kansas or Oregon

[StainlessSteelCynic]

You might have edited your post to remove it, but you did make the claim that when writing the sections on Mexico the author must have been suffering from a tequila fever dream. The tone certainly wasn't humorous and along with the rest of the comment, was quite insulting.

And again, you make claims based on supposition. When you state that "the Belgians would have most likely wanted to...", it is in no way a "fact". It never will be a fact. It is assumption. While the Belgian army might have been planning to get replacement APCs, there has never been a single source produced to indicate that the Belgian gendarmerie was going to get rid of their BDX APCs at the same time. By all accounts the gendarmerie got rid of their armoured vehicles because the end of the Cold War made them unnecessary for their future needs.

There were other mitigating factors that resulted in the gendarmerie being completely reformed in the 1990s but it's quite telling that although the public scandals that resulted in the shakeup occured in the middle of the 1980s, the gendarmerie still kept their rear-area and internal security duties until the 1990s. That being so, they would have most likely retained their wheeled armour rather than replace it with tracked armour as tracks usually make the general public feel a whole lot more nervous.

And I'll say it again, using the real world draw down that removed the need for these vehicles is in no way indicative of what would have happened to those vehicles if the Cold War had continued. The most significant premise of the game is that the Cold War did continue which also implies that the Belgians would be quite concerned with maintaining sufficient reserves of the older vehicles until every unit was completely outfitted with the replacement vehicles. It's also more than likely that they would have been interested in maintaining a decent war reserve.

The more likely outcome of any fleet upgrade would have been retaining the older vehicles as a war reserve. The Belgians still had stocks of the C.A.T.I. tank destroyer into the late 1960s, this was a WW2 Lloyd Carrier upgraded with a 90mm Mecar AT gun. They kept those Lloyd Carriers for 20 years since the end of WW2 even though they had obtained better vehicles.

Based on that fact, it could be realistically supposed that the AMX vehicles would likely be retained for a war reserve for a reasonable length of time before being disposed of. But I'm not going to try and claim my supposition on that matter as a "fact".

[Olefin]

And notice that I removed that comment

but left in this one - which I stand by

however holding onto a smaller area might be possible - but there is no way the US just sits there and lets them keep half of CA, over half of AZ and NM and all of Texas - sorry but that is completo sin sentido - i.e. complete nonsense - and the fact the the US controls the water is the big factor - I have a feeling the original authors never took the time to research that fact

doesnt take much research at all to see that holding San Diego, LA and Phoenix let alone smaller areas is impossible without access to the Colorado River - and all those access points with the exception of one- the one that feeds the All American Canal and gives water to the Imperial Valley (and recreated the Salton Sea in the process) - are in areas the US holds and never lost at any time during the Twilight War and afterward

you dont need the internet to know that - my in-laws have a very old set of encyclopedias from 1982 that spell that out talking about California and Arizona and where their water supplies come from

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Olefin

"It has always been about the belligerent & insulting manner in which the original authors have been criticized for being unrealistic when the person supplying that criticism is himself making some claims that fall into that category."

Sorry but no one is being either belligerent or insulting of the original authors.

And the claims that I am making are totally realistic

Fact - the Belgians were in the process of replacing their old APC's with new ones, many of them built in Belguim

Fact - the Mexican Army was operating a lot of French equipment as was trying to get more to modernize their army - and was buying mostly from the French so that it wouldnt strain their logistics system which already sucked

Fact - the Belgians would have most likely wanted to get rid of their older APC's now that they had new ones - which is indicated by the real world draw down in the 1990's

and also the canon - the three day stand in Texas by a bunch of military cadets, the fact that the School Brigade - with basically anti-aircraft weapons used against armor and the very nature of the Mexican Army who had never bought main battle tanks previously in the history of their armed forces except a few Stuarts that were used as recon armor and not tanks all add up to a Mexican military that would not have suddenly bought hundreds of tanks

and canon - the forces that were left in the US could not have stopped a Mexican Army as depicted in the fan canon sourcebook backed up by a Soviet Motor Rifle Division from taking a hell of a lot more territory unless every unit left in the US went to engage them - which THEY DID NOT - especially two armored brigades that for sure would have engaged them -
that alone shows that they could not have had that much heavy armor

in fact the canon saying that when the 197th did enter Texas it only did so to fight the Texian Legion and marauders tells you that the Mexicans didnt have any heavy armor of their own along for the ride

and my objection to canon comes down to the Mexicans being able to hold what they took for any length of time past 2000 considering the amount of new veteran US troops brought back to the country, considering that many of the areas they held would have had almost no water when the US cut off the supplies and that they were fighting a Civil War and had almost no logistical support of any kind

So am I objecting to the invasion itself - no - what I am objecting to is a very obviously flawed fan canon sourcebook that adds so much in the way of overall TOE to the Mexican Army that you would have to not just rewrite canon you would have to literally tear it up and ignore it - including Frank Chadwick's Mexican Army post in Challenge, the US Army Vehicle Guide and its dispositions of US forces after the invasion and Red Star Lone Star - in fact the only Mexican force with tanks is in City of Angels and its considered apocrypha mainly because of the sudden appearance of so much Russian equipment and almost no Mexican

if the Mexicans had built up a force with that many tanks the US would have only had one way to stop it - and basically that would have meant multiple nukes on both the US and Mexico in places like Texas, California, AZ and NM - and again thats a big time rewrite of canon history

You are looking at a Mexican Army with literally almost 1500 tanks plus Division Cuba against one armored division, one reforming mech division fitted with whatever tanks they could grab and two tank brigades that never even engaged the invasion - all low on gas and ammo - good luck stopping that short of Kansas or Oregon

"Fact - the Belgians were in the process of replacing their old APC's with new ones, many of them built in Belguim"

Belgium had a small defence budget and a small army that was committed to NATO. In fact almost the entire Belgian regular army was committed to NATO and its main function was to commit the I Belgian Corps to CENTAG in West Germany. Belgium had two reserve mechanised brigades to reinforce the I Belgian Corps and defend Belgian territory, and both brigades were equipped with the AMX VCI. Belgium shares a land border with Germany and if I Belgian Corps failed to whole the line then the Soviets would be marching on Belgium, and all the Belgian Army would have to defend Belgium would be the two reserve mechanised brigades and some territorial infantry battalions. But you believe Belgium would ignore its own very real defence needs and strip its army of over 500 APC's (AMX VCI and BDX) and sell them to Mexico for the price of second hand surplus.

Fact - the Mexican Army was operating a lot of French equipment as was trying to get more to modernize their army - and was buying mostly from the French so that it wouldnt strain their logistics system which already sucked.

This is basically what Paul Mulcahy proposed in his Mexican Army Sourcebook, but you dismissed it out of hand. You may not agree with the level of equipment that Mexico bought or licence built from France, but he was certainly on the right path and Mexico would need to beef up its army with tanks to take on U.S. forces. A few battalions of AMX-30's plus some Soviet tanks from Division Cuba would at least give the Mexicans a fighting chance against U.S. forces, and explain why they were able to defeat better armed U.S. forces and hold American territory for longer than they would be expected to do so once U.S. forces come after them.

In the 1980's Mexico bought the following from France. 120 ERC-90, 48 VCR-TT, 40 VBL including 8 with Milan anti-tank missiles, 32 MO-120 RT 120mm Mortars and 80 MILAN anti-tank missile. They also bought 6 FIROS -51 Self propelled MRL from Italy. This is a fairly moderate arms purchase but nonetheless upgraded Mexican forces, and all of these arms were bought new.

In the 1990's Mexico bought 401 Belgian AMX VCI including mortar carriers and ARV's that were modified as the DNC-1 in Mexico, 95 BDX that were designated as DNC-2 in Mexico, and also bought 28 Commando V-150 from the U.S. All of these were bought after the end of the Cold War and were bought second hand from surplus Belgian and U.S. stocks.

The rest.

GDW didn't write a perfect Orbat or history for the Twilight War, but it's still damn good considering the source material they had available in the 1980's. GDW listed U.S. divisions, brigades and armoured cavalry regiments only. There were some omissions in U.S. Army forces regards to brigades and battalions that were not roundout's, and this has been pointed out many times. Also GDW only lists tanks, there is little or no reference to the number of lighter armoured vehicles and artillery of all types, and there must have been a lot operated by U.S. forces.

If you don't like canon go and type up your own alternative version and post it up, but I like canon and will stick with it.

[Rainbow Six]

My issue here - which others have already mentioned - is the way that one person's opinions are being presented as facts.

Also if you have issues with something that another fan has put together (and, as far as I know has never claimed to be any sort of canon, fan or otherwise) I think there are far more constructive ways to do so than referring to it as 'very obviously flawed' (which again is an opinion, not a fact - other opinions may vary).

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

My issue here - which others have already mentioned - is the way that one person's opinions are being presented as facts.

Also if you have issues with something that another fan has put together (and, as far as I know has never claimed to be any sort of canon, fan or otherwise) I think there are far more constructive ways to do so than referring to it as 'very obviously flawed' (which again is an opinion, not a fact - other opinions may vary).

Ok flawed by my meaning is so overpowering that there is no way the US forces in the canon could have stopped them with what they had and with the deployments in the canon - and if they had all those tanks where did they all go to? There is a very detailed order of battle for the Mexican forces in Texas in Red Star Lone Star - and not one single Mexican tank to be found anywhere - and GDW was very good at making sure that vehicles like tanks were accounted for as they were so rare.

If they had been there in their formations there would have been some survivors for sure- and would have been very easy for GDW to say "the Mexican unit in Laredo has two of the last surviving AMX-30 tanks from those they bought from France".

They werent there because the only tanks they ever operated were Stuarts because they never needed tanks.

And they werent plotting for years to invade the US - it happened almost on the spur of the moment per the canon. And given the very bad nature of the roads and rail system in Mexico in the mid-1990s' and how tight their military budget was if anything they would have spent the money on vehicles their army was built around - i.e. APC's and light armored cars which by the way their defense industry was ready to support and maintain

By the time they knew they were going to do it there was no time to prepare to fight the US by getting a lot of tanks and other vehicles - it was a come as you are kind of war - per the canon

If you want the Mexican Army Sourcebook then the canon would need some serious rewriting (moving the 194th and 197th to stop that huge amount of Mexican armor let alone Civgov having to cooperate with Milgov for sure to stop that kind of armored force instead of Civgov trying to not get units sent to the 5th Army) - versus not having it and it reads pretty well even given just the DNC-1 and DNC-2 additions to their army

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

My issue here - which others have already mentioned - is the way that one person's opinions are being presented as facts.

Also if you have issues with something that another fan has put together (and, as far as I know has never claimed to be any sort of canon, fan or otherwise) I think there are far more constructive ways to do so than referring to it as 'very obviously flawed' (which again is an opinion, not a fact - other opinions may vary).

and one last point - I am only saying its flawed as a way to say how canonically the Mexican Army was equipped - It does not agree with what Red Star Lone Star or Frank Chadwick's Challenge article have - which are the canon sources we have (and if you come up with a good reason for the Soviet armor the only other canon source being City of Angels)

[Rainbow Six]

I have no particular opinion on the fan produced Mexican Army sourcebook. I don't think I've ever done any more than skim through it and I certainly don't regard it as canon - quite the opposite, as I said, it's fan produced material, so is strictly non canon as far as I'm concerned. So as it's not canon in my opinion I really don't care if it contradicts Red Star, Lone Star or the Challenge article on the Mexican Army.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

My issue here - which others have already mentioned - is the way that one person's opinions are being presented as facts.

This. Very much this.

Let's face it, guys. Like it or not, we're a small community. Schisms are particularly damaging. A lot of people who used to be fixtures here now show up here seldom or never. Have they just lost interest or have they been repulsed by the tone of some of the discussion here? It's hard to say, but I suspect a good proportion of our "lost" members fall into the latter category.

One person's T2KU need not be everyone's. Hubris is a big turn-off. Slagging someone else's work (canon or not) because you see things differently is not cool.

From our very own forum guidelines.

Originally Posted by Raellus

Keep It Civil

We can all agree to disagree but let's make sure to do so respectfully. No name-calling, sarcasm, or other childishness is appropriate or welcome here. If you are upset with someone and want them to know about it, send them a PM and try to work it out privately. If another member is really getting on your nerves, you can use the forum tools to place that person on your ignore list. We don't tolerate flame wars here.

Please don't attempt to incite internecine forum conflict with deliberately provocative and/or inflammatory posts. In interweb parlance, please don't be a troll.

Keep It Constructive

Folks post a lot of original T2K material here, most of it of the highest quality. Many contributors invite and welcome constructive criticism. If, however, they do not solicit feedback, then it's poor form to pipe in give it anyway. And please, don't post just to tear down the hard work of others. If you really don't like something that someone else has posted, and can't express this respectfully and with the intention of creating a constructive dialogue with the poster, then you should probably just keep it to yourself.

Thanks, and enjoy!

[Olefin]

Heard what you said Raellus and noted

as for those who arent posting here anymore - sorry but please dont make it sound like that is my responsibility - frankly if anyone loves and encourages discussion its me - as long as it discussion - however posts like this I dont see as as meeting the decorum of the board either

"Whoa whoa whoa... so let me get this right. Someone complains about the lack of proper research done by the original authors and then uses poor research himself to "correct" somebody's inventory for Mexico?"

That sort of violates both the Keep it Civil and Keep it Constructive precepts of the board.

and FYI the AMX-VCI that I was saying was in the Mexican Army inventory that I was getting hammered for - its also in the Mexican Sourcebook as them having it as well - i.e. I was agreeing there with what was in the Sourcebook as being accurate for what they actually had for the canon invasion

I love this board and the freedom of discussion it has - and if anyone really doesnt want it to descend into "in your face" facebook style comments its me - and if I made those then I apologize big time

[Olefin]

The Mexican Army Sourcebook had a lot more than just a few battalions of AMX-30 tanks added to their TOE - sorry but it would have given them an overwhelming force that was way way above anything Mexico could have ever fielded and supported.

As for the 401 Belgian AMX VCI including mortar carriers and ARV's that were modified as the DNC-1 in Mexico and the 95 BDX that were designated as DNC-2 in Mexico were actually in their inventory for the canon - I definitely think very much that Belgium, who was modernizing with new APC's at the time, would have definitely sold a bunch of older APC's that didnt have a hope in hell to face top of the line Warsaw Pact armor to Mexico so that they could buy a lot more newer APC's that could - instead of them just sitting around depots gathering rust and not getting any more money for them to use for their defense budget

And that gives Mexico a heck of a lot of French APC's that support the canon as to what they were equipped with per canon - its not the right vehicle (Red Star Lone Star mentions the VAB instead of the AMX-VCI) but its definitely the right country for the source of those APC's

and if it would make everyone feel better they also could easily have gotten them from France instead - who still had a lot of them sitting around as well

And GDW actually does mention how well equipped the US units were with stuff other than tanks - you can see it in the US Army Vehicle Guide as to what the units were equipped with

For many of the US training divisions it shows what they would have had to face the Mexicans with - and frankly they had very little to stop any kind of armored attack, no matter how old the vehicles were

As for the canon - past mid-April of 2001 (i.e. HW timing) Marc is open to changes and improvements upon his approval- and there is where I plan to release new canon material as I already have done so for Africa - i.e. for events in May -September 2001 in California and elsewhere

so to answer your last point- yes I do plan on creating and releasing new canon material that hopefully will show a more logical approach to what would have really happened with the aftermath of the canon Mexican invasion - and i hope you do enjoy the new canon material when its released