YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Olefin

and an oil bonanza isnt in the canon (but just because its not mentioned doesnt mean it didnt happen)

(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.

[RN7]

An explanation to why there is no list of French tanks in Mexican service in Texas in the Red Star-Lone Star SB maybe because there are now none operational in the region because they bore the brunt of the initial invasion and took heavy losses. What was left of them could have been withdrawn back into Mexico.

The AMX-30 is not a good tank from the perspective of its armour protection. It is inferior to an M60 yet alone an Abram's, and its protection is inferior to most Soviet tanks. The French Army were glad to replace it with the vastly superior Leclerc. However its good by Mexican standards and it would have given them at least a chance. Most Mexican vehicles are vulnerable to heavy machine guns fire yet alone tanks and anti-tank weapons.

Off hand I don't know the composition of a Mexican armoured cavalry battalion/regiment. What 36-48 vehicles? Two battalions of AMX-30's would be less than a 100 tanks. A moderate force before the invasion that would likely have seen the brunt of combat against U.S. forces, and through losses, attrition and lack of spares would likely only be a fraction of its pre-invasion strength. The Mexicans probably withdrew the surviving 10-20 tanks back into Mexico as a reserve, in case American reinforcements from east of the Mississippi or the Pacific North West led to a major American counter-offensive that pushed through Texas and into Mexico itself.

HOT-1 missiles would also give the Mexican some teeth against older American tanks.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

An explanation to why there is no list of French tanks in Mexican service in Texas in the Red Star-Lone Star SB maybe because there are now none operational in the region because they bore the brunt of the initial invasion and took heavy losses. What was left of them could have been withdrawn back into Mexico.

The AMX-30 is not a good tank from the perspective of its armour protection. It is inferior to an M60 yet alone an Abram's, and its protection is inferior to most Soviet tanks. The French Army were glad to replace it with the vastly superior Leclerc. However its good by Mexican standards and it would have given them at least a chance. Most Mexican vehicles are vulnerable to heavy machine guns fire yet alone tanks and anti-tank weapons.

Off hand I don't know the composition of a Mexican armoured cavalry battalion/regiment. What 36-48 vehicles? Two battalions of AMX-30's would be less than a 100 tanks. A moderate force before the invasion that would likely have seen the brunt of combat against U.S. forces, and through losses, attrition and lack of spares would likely only be a fraction of its pre-invasion strength. The Mexicans probably withdrew the surviving 10-20 tanks back into Mexico as a reserve, in case American reinforcements from east of the Mississippi or the Pacific North West led to a major American counter-offensive that pushed through Texas and into Mexico itself.

HOT-1 missiles would also give the Mexican some teeth against older American tanks.

Per Frank Chadwick who helped write Red Star Lone Star this is the canon strength


Mechanized Infantry Brigades - 2

Each with two mech inf regiments with 40 VAB APC, one armored recon regiment (which was the size of a battalion) with 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC and one SPG battalion of 6 M109 and 12 M108's

Thus the total he had for SPG's was 12 M109 and 24 M108 for the whole Mexican Army (i.e. betting he didnt know they had the 5 M8 Scott's)

There were also:

Armored Cav Regiments (sized as a battalion) - 3

Each with 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC

Regional Brigades - i.e. Inf Brigades - 36 regional brigades

Each averaging one motorized cav regiment (really a battalion - see below), two infantry regiments and one battery of artillery

thus an armored cav regiment had a total of 51 vehicles, 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC (defined as a squadron of of seventeen vehicles of ERC-90 and two squadrons of VAB APC)

so a little bigger but pretty close there RN7! Good estimate!

[RN7]

Originally Posted by kato13

(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.

Oil and arms were the Soviets main exports, in fact they are still Russia's main exports today.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

Oil and arms were the Soviets main exports, in fact they are still Russia's main exports today.

and they also were exporting Russians as well especially what they called undesirables in the Soviet era

[Olefin]

FYI oil prices per barrel in real life

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/...ices_Table.asp


year price price adjust for inflation
1990 $23.19 $43.32
1991 $20.20 $36.31
1992 $19.25 $33.58
1993 $16.75 $28.39
1994 $15.66 $25.86
1995 $16.75 $26.91
1996 $20.46 $31.91
1997 $18.64 $28.43
1998 $11.91 $17.89
1999 $16.56 $24.28

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Olefin

FYI oil prices per barrel in real life

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/...ices_Table.asp


year price price adjust for inflation
1990 $23.19 $43.32
1991 $20.20 $36.31
1992 $19.25 $33.58
1993 $16.75 $28.39
1994 $15.66 $25.86
1995 $16.75 $26.91
1996 $20.46 $31.91
1997 $18.64 $28.43
1998 $11.91 $17.89
1999 $16.56 $24.28

In the T2K timeline I'd say the price of a barrel of oil would climb to an all time high from October 1996 onwards.

[Olefin]

FYI one idea for where Mexico got the money to buy new equipment - the US

We give Mexico a lot of military assistance and aid - and I can see a Mexican official going to the US and saying "we need military assistance to be able to build up our army to resist the threat from the Nicaraguans and their Soviet allies" and the US saying "sure that sounds like a great idea"

and then a few years later really not thinking so when the equipment said aid bought starts pouring across the Rio Grande

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

In the T2K timeline I'd say the price of a barrel of oil would climb to an all time high from October 1996 onwards.

I would say earlier - starting with the Soviet China War, peaking and then going down, then peaking again in October of 1996 and going from there - and could be another source for late buys for Mexico from places like Brazil or Argentina - i.e. where they thought there was no way any fighting could come near them

[Raellus]

Olefin, I believe that I may have seized upon an explanation for Howling Wilderness' seemingly nonsensical demobilization figures AND figured out a way for the U.S.A. to push Mexican forces off of American territory without those troops. AFAIK, the figures in HW refer solely to the U.S. troops returning home from Europe.

What about the 15,400 U.S. troops listed by the v1.0 U.S. Army Vehicle Guide as being in Korea in the summer of 2000. What if they were evacuated in late 2000/early 2001, and made back it to the west coast? 15,000 combat veterans could do a lot to eject the Mexican forces that remain on U.S. soil in early 2001. This could explain why most of the Omega evacuees are demobilized without breaking canon.

If you use this idea, I expect a credit.

Give it some thought.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by kato13

(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.

I like it, Kato.