Twilight 2025

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

I tend to agree with you watching riots break out in New York City and Pittsburgh whenever there are power outages. I think the real issue is twofold;

1) How poor do you "perceive" yourself to be in comparison to your neighbors?
2) How WELL do you "know" your neighbors?

If you know all your neighbors and are on a fairly equal economic basis with them, you will often see mutual support and assistance from those communities. Such communities tend to be smaller with a more "integrated" social system (everyone attends the same schools, churches, and social functions).

On the other hand, if you don't associate with your neighbors regularly, or even know their names, it is easy to view them as a "resource" instead of as "people." Add to this the fact that cities usually have limited resources available (leading to competition for those resources) and you have a disaster in the making.

In addition, if you view yourself as "marginalized" by the vast majority of society, a major disruption could be your chance to not only acquire "resources" that are otherwise unavailable to you but also to "punish" those you feel have kept you in poverty. I think of the people in Baltimore looting and burning the CVS Pharmacy during the protests for Freddy Gray. What exactly did CVS do to cause Freddy Gey to die? NOTHING! It was a convenient excuse to loot that CVS.

This behavior is what will cause the most damage to major cities in the War.

Yes, the best and worst comes out in people.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I think these may have been discussed before on the forum but they fit in here well enough as a colour/background element of any post-apocalypse scenario.
Specifically I am talking about two ideas to get long-range comms back after the breakdown.

The first is a concept still in use by ham radio operators so is very much a proven idea. Earth-Moon-Earth communications, basically you aim your microwave transmitter at the Moon and someone somewhere else in the world can pick it up with their microwave receiver.
Quite a bit easier than trying to get a hold of working comms satellites, finding a suitable launch vehicle, fuelling said launch vehicle and then getting the satellite into orbit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%..._communication

The second is a little more difficult and has a limited life span of a year or two. Difficult because it does require a rocket to deliver a package into orbit and the package itself needs some thought put into how it will deliver its contents but the concept itself is incredibly simple.
Essentially, a collection of short lengths of copper wire, placed in orbit, function like a giant antenna. It was a serious consideration in the 1950s when North America and Western Europe had either ionospheric radio or undersea cable as their only means of long-range communication with each other.
But their are issues with seeding near-Earth orbit with 20kg of copper wire, aside from finding a suitable rocket to get it there.
https://www.wired.com/2013/08/project-west-ford/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford

Both concepts could be attractive solutions for rapidly re-establishing communication in a world that is very dependent on satellites for long-range comms these days.

[Legbreaker]

Hmm, putting even MORE shrapnel into orbit sounds like a wonderful idea.
What could possibly go wrong?

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Hmm, putting even MORE shrapnel into orbit sounds like a wonderful idea.
What could possibly go wrong?

Oh don't worry, there's soooo much space in space, there's plenty of room!
And anyway, it'll all fall back to Earth after about two years.

Or so they thought...
Apparently there's still clumps of copper wire floating around up there from their initial tests.
To be a little fair, it was conceived of and deployed in the 1950s, before they had developed any satellites and realized the problems of tiny objects smacking into delicate machines in orbit.

But still, what could possibly go wrong?

[Legbreaker]

With the undoubtedly billions of pieces already up there after the ASAT attacks during the war the Kessler syndrome is already probably going to prevent space flight any time in the next few generations (until somebody works out a way to clean up space). Might already be enough crap up there that additional wires would be unnecessary!

[Olefin]

actually that would depend on how many attacks are low orbit versus high orbit or geo orbit - the low orbit stuff would mostly be gone in a decade or so

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

I think these may have been discussed before on the forum but they fit in here well enough as a colour/background element of any post-apocalypse scenario.
Specifically I am talking about two ideas to get long-range comms back after the breakdown.

The first is a concept still in use by ham radio operators so is very much a proven idea. Earth-Moon-Earth communications, basically you aim your microwave transmitter at the Moon and someone somewhere else in the world can pick it up with their microwave receiver.
Quite a bit easier than trying to get a hold of working comms satellites, finding a suitable launch vehicle, fuelling said launch vehicle and then getting the satellite into orbit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%..._communication

The second is a little more difficult and has a limited life span of a year or two. Difficult because it does require a rocket to deliver a package into orbit and the package itself needs some thought put into how it will deliver its contents but the concept itself is incredibly simple.
Essentially, a collection of short lengths of copper wire, placed in orbit, function like a giant antenna. It was a serious consideration in the 1950s when North America and Western Europe had either ionospheric radio or undersea cable as their only means of long-range communication with each other.
But their are issues with seeding near-Earth orbit with 20kg of copper wire, aside from finding a suitable rocket to get it there.
https://www.wired.com/2013/08/project-west-ford/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford

Both concepts could be attractive solutions for rapidly re-establishing communication in a world that is very dependent on satellites for long-range comms these days.

Don't forget about Single Side-Band Radio.

While VHF and UHF are both basically limited to "line-of-sight" communications (about 50km to 75km with a VERY tall whip antenna) without prepositioned "Rebounders" (tall towers that amplify and redirect the radio signal to extend the signal range up to around 150km based on their position), SSB is NOT so limited.

For those who are unfamiliar with Single Side Band Radio, it is a radio that operates in the lower Megahertz band and uses the atmosphere to bounce a signal a LONG WAY off. While primarily used by sailing vessels, it can also be found on ground installations. It can be identified by its long (25ft+) whip antenna with an unusual metal "directional" dish at the bottom (a disk angled upwards). Significantly powerful radios (up to 1000 watts output) have transmitted CLEARLY at ranges exceeding 7000km. The signal is bounced off of the Ionosphere and the higher the Sun is, the lower the frequency range you need (3 to 5 MHZ) while a higher frequency (8+ MHZ) is needed in a lower "charged Ionosphere" (the sun is setting or down). Many of these units could have survived, being on board both merchant vessels and sailing cruisers (who even have their own radio nets to use) during The Exchange.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

Don't forget about Single Side-Band Radio.

While VHF and UHF are both basically limited to "line-of-sight" communications (about 50km to 75km with a VERY tall whip antenna) without prepositioned "Rebounders" (tall towers that amplify and redirect the radio signal to extend the signal range up to around 150km based on their position), SSB is NOT so limited.

For those who are unfamiliar with Single Side Band Radio, it is a radio that operates in the lower Megahertz band and uses the atmosphere to bounce a signal a LONG WAY off. While primarily used by sailing vessels, it can also be found on ground installations. It can be identified by its long (25ft+) whip antenna with an unusual metal "directional" dish at the bottom (a disk angled upwards). Significantly powerful radios (up to 1000 watts output) have transmitted CLEARLY at ranges exceeding 7000km. The signal is bounced off of the Ionosphere and the higher the Sun is, the lower the frequency range you need (3 to 5 MHZ) while a higher frequency (8+ MHZ) is needed in a lower "charged Ionosphere" (the sun is setting or down). Many of these units could have survived, being on board both merchant vessels and sailing cruisers (who even have their own radio nets to use) during The Exchange.

I think the early Air Force used it.

[Ancestor]

I just saw this thread. I run a game set in 2030. I wrote the timeline in 2014. Some of it has come true, some not so much. I had the following:

-US/NATO war on ISIS changes balance of power in ME with Russia backing Iran and Syria and US backing the Gulf states (nailed that one)

-Renewed Cold War between US and Russia leading to US buildup in Europe and Western Europe rearming (on the way to nailing that one).

-Refugee resettlement driving Visegrad group into Russian camp (a stretch at this point)

-Chinese recession leads to increased unrest, more authoritarian govt, and increased militarization (swing and a miss)

-Russia rides high energy prices to rearm (strike two)

-The GOP controlled Congress overrides President Hillary Clinton's desire to cut military spending, instead voting to massively expand the US military to meet global threats ( Strike three!!!)

By the time the war starts in 2025 (just add 30 years to canon dates!) Poland splits between "white Poles" favoring NATO and 'red Poles' favoring Russia, Iran is in full revolution (pro Western and royalists backed by the US vs regime backed by Russia), France leaving NATO, anti-EU governments voted into power in Italy and Greece, and NK moving south and you have a fair semblance of the 2TK world updated and ready to run for your Gen Z sons.

They still laugh when I say "Soviet" though...

[Ramjam]

But some of your swings are not that far off.

China is having problems as their economy has slowed over the last few years. There has been some unrest but it's generally not on a scale to be noticed by the West.

As for Russia bumping the cost of fuel up to their foreign customers....Well they has sort of happened and they have been re-arming to a degree. With sending troops to both Syria and the Ukraine to get combat experience, the Red Army is back in the game for sure.

[ChalkLine]

Okay, here's my idea of where the differences between modern warfare and twilight warfare are plus some key events that will shape change in the T2k world.

Cold War gone Hot
The initial war is much like we expect and have planned for. Main force units meet in a series of clashes of mobility and firepower. Technological edges are used to their extreme limit. The destructive power of each combat arm is massively multiplied causing immense damage to the combatants.

Back to WW2 and The Missile Drought
The hectic pace of operations and the staggering losses to all facets of the armed forces starts to slow the pace of operations. The high tech weapons, carefully stockpiled before the war, are expended faster than they can be restocked as strategic warfare is practiced. Soon things like ATGMs start to become scarce when their field expenditure is many times higher than has been predicted. The initial Orbital War destroys the satellite system and GPS is only available via ground based towers. The trend swings away from high tech solutions to straight out military effort. At this point the mandatory conscription of combatants is practiced right across the globe.

Back even further to WW1 and The Fuel Drought
Soon strategic warfare has destroyed the upper end of prewar technological capability. Fuels become scarce and hard decisions are made to maintain production of lower rated fuels, lubricants and plastics at the cost of high rating fuels. Aircraft become rarer to extremely scarce. Air-mobility ends as a military concept while a new generation of fuel-efficient aircraft are introduced.
On the ground the lack of fuels means the two greatest breakers of the Trench Deadlock; tanks and aircraft, become scarce. With the difficulties supplying the troops static warfare starts to become the norm. Troops are incapable of moving more than 20km across the battlefield in a day. Still, command attempts to maintain manouevre warfare if at all possible. in some fringe theatres horse-drawn and horse mounted troops reappear.

The Collapse or Back to Vietnam
Bio-weapons, natural diseases, chemical and nuclear weapons thin out the troops to fractions of the numbers used in the height of the war. Static combat lines falter and break with the lack of troops to maintain them. Rather than long trench lines new 'fire base' cantons appear that try to project control around their surrounding areas. Command finally collapses under the strain of trying to feed the troops and the war is seen as not only unwinnable but possibly unsurvivable. Cantons start to protect local civilians and contract into small federations that occasionally undertake common objectives in the summer to acquire strategic stocks to better survive winter. Troops now protect civilians and may or may not be part of the small communities' health and education systems, if any.

[WallShadow]

Originally Posted by Ancestor

I just saw this thread. I run a game set in 2030. I wrote the timeline in 2014. Some of it has come true, some not so much. I had the following:
<SNIP>
-Chinese recession leads to increased unrest, more authoritarian govt, and increased militarization (swing and a miss)
<SNIP>
-Russia rides high energy prices to rearm (strike two)
<SNIP>
By the time the war starts in 2025 (just add 30 years to canon dates!) Poland splits between "white Poles" favoring NATO and 'red Poles' favoring Russia, Iran is in full revolution (pro Western and royalists backed by the US vs regime backed by Russia), France leaving NATO, anti-EU governments voted into power in Italy and Greece, and NK moving south and you have a fair semblance of the 2TK world updated and ready to run for your Gen Z sons.

They still laugh when I say "Soviet" though...

China is undergoing some serious cultural problems with the fallout from the "One Child Policy"--demand for male offspring is causing a shortage of available women for marriage, even to the point of young girls being obtained (read "kidnapped" or "bought") from neighboring countries. This might lead to a basic instability in the Chinese civilization.

Russia's oil reserves are dwindling, few new fields are being found, and their shale-oil technology has not caught up. Just like Japan in 1941--being squeezed by the need for resources.

Love the idea about Poland splitting and the chaos politically.

And who knows what Uncle Vlad will do to consolidate power?

[Heffe3737]

7 years ehh? As recent events have shown us, that's time enough for quite a bit to take place. This is a high level outline of what I could imagine:

EurAsia:
Due to political will in the US, the US government scales back and potentially drops out of NATO altogether, leaving the EU scrambling to rebuild their militaries. In it's bid to gain additional fuel reserves and more access to continental Europe, and in the absence of serious western opposition after the changes to NATO, Russia invades and annexes the remainder of the Ukraine. Lacking sufficient military strength yet, the EU talk a lot about taking action against Russia but no significant actions are taken outside of some minor sanctions. Russia takes this as a nod and moves in to secure Georgia as well, followed by a quick acceptance of Belarus back under Russian political control.

Meanwhile, sensing Russia's growing aggression with America's increasing isolationism, the EU prepares for the worst and begin stockpiling weapons. Facing increasing internal and financial pressure, Greece and Turkey pull out of NATO and quickly thereafter join the SCO. A hard Brexit happens with the UK, further straining the EU close to the breaking point.

In the Middle East, tensions escalate as Israel and Iran continue fighting a proxy war using terrorist factions. Syria and Yemen sign a mutual defense agreement with Iran. Israel calls upon the US for aid which is slow to come.

India and Pakistan...just continue being India and Pakistan.

In the far East, China continues to build in the South China Sea, prompting fiercer denunciation from the Philippines, and after China decides to use the same tactics elsewhere in international waters, the Philippines is joined by Japan and South Korea. Malaysia and Vietnam also join in condemning Chinese actions, but to a lesser extent. China continues providing relief and begins sending arms to North Korea. Pressure builds.

North America
Relations between the US and Canada degrade somewhat, but the two countries continue to trade and communicate. The US political scene is in turmoil, with GOP and Dems fighting over competing ideologies. The GOP ideologies eventually win over when a bio weapon suddenly explodes over a major US city, and is sourced to a terrorist group with ties to Iran. This leads to the US adopting a near entirely isolationist stance similar to pre-WW2, though there is still a sizeble amount of unrest in the US's liberal coastal cities. Mexico, angry about the political machinations happening to the north and feeling used by the American government, elects a strong anti-American president.

South America
Brazil's corruption reaches a crescendo and the economy collapses wholesale, leaving millions in poverty which cascades out to other countries on the continent. Similar events take place in Venezuela. Soon, most of South America is reeling from the influx of refugees from those beleaguered states. The cartels use this as an opportunity to gain more power and start setting up regional districts of their own, slowly pulling the populace away from any modicum of central government.

Australia
Somewhat of a bulwark in the South Pacific, the Aussies pick up somewhat where the US leaves off, and signs a mutual security agreement with Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Malaysia. They sense a storm is coming and begin preparations.

Africa
As American isolationism deepens, Chinese influence starts to encroach. Most of the continent is still fairly unstable, outside of a few outliers (Egypt, South America, and Morocco).

Outcome
When the bio weapon hits American soil, the suddenly united US population lashes out in rage and agrees to a joint operation with Israel to attack Iran. Bombs fall. Iran declares war on the US and Israel and blockades the Gulf. Syria and Yemen soon join in, followed by Saudi Arabia. Turkey joins in on the side of Iran as well when the US starts flying sorties through their airspace.

This slowly and inexorably draws in the remaining members of the SCO. The EU gets rapidly pulled in as well when Turkish ships open fire on an EU aid flotilla heading to Israel.

Simultaneously, China begins limited hostile actions against the Philippines which rapidly escalates into full on war with the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. North Korea crosses the 51st parellel.

Conclusion
From there, while the sides are somewhat different than legacy T2k versions, the rest of the story happens fairly as normal. Russia invades the EU, the EU fights back. The US puts troops in Europe to help protect an endangered Europe. Nukes begin to fall. Society collapses on a scale never before seen. Etc. etc.

Thoughts?

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by WallShadow

China is undergoing some serious cultural problems with the fallout from the "One Child Policy"--demand for male offspring is causing a shortage of available women for marriage, even to the point of young girls being obtained (read "kidnapped" or "bought") from neighboring countries.

That makes me think their military will be less hesitant to use human wave type attacks. Men are plentiful, so keeping them alive and using more technically advanced and financially expensive solutions is somewhat less necessary...