Changes in Oil Movement pre TDM

[Olefin]

and those mines and subs would have had USN ships escorting the tankers - and you bring up a Soviet mine or sink a Soviet sub and its off to war we go - the Soviets werent trying to get the US to join the war - and there is a precedent - the US escort of the tankers in the Persian Gulf and what they did to the Iranians to keep the sea lanes clear

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Olefin

and those mines and subs would have had USN ships escorting the tankers - and you bring up a Soviet mine or sink a Soviet sub and its off to war we go - the Soviets werent trying to get the US to join the war - and there is a precedent - the US escort of the tankers in the Persian Gulf and what they did to the Iranians to keep the sea lanes clear

I don't think it is so cut and dry.

First this is not WWII nor are we discussing just the Straights of Hormuz. There are over 20,000 cargo ships during this time (man at times like this I miss Chico more than usual). The US was trying to get 800 warships so not every ship is going to be escorted.

I believe the soviets supplied sea mines to over 25 countries during the cold war so that muddies the waters a bit in terms of guilt (like the mines the Iranians laid). Also the US (CIA) mined a Nicaraguan harbor in 1984 and damaged a soviet tanker. That did not end up being a prelude to war. Neither did a US ship getting damaged by an Iranian mine.

If a few neutral tankers go down in the Malacca Straits, can we be 100% sure it is not Vietnam or Burma (heck it could be blamed on India or Indonesia who each might want to take China down a peg).


I do think that the Soviets would not risk too much in 95 (when they are winning), but in spring 96 when things start to go bad (but before the German crossing) we might have to think about them starting to bend the rules a bit.

[Olefin]

FYI escorting fuel tankers for China and by extension South Korea and Japan could help explain how the Soviets managed to get their forces to Alaska and the Canadian Pacific coast - i.e. that the USN had to make such a big commitment to protecting shipping to support their forces in Korea and to escort tankers and other supply ships for China (and probably South Korea and Japan as well) that there werent enough to cover the North Pacific adequately - and that the Soviets took advantage of that to get their forces over for the invasion of Alaska and Canada

[Olefin]

One thing to keep in mind is that China until the mid-90's really didnt import fuel - they just didnt have enough cars to need more oil than they produced - so the real question may be how quickly did the Soviets damage their oil producing centers to where it became necessary to import fuel to keep their war effort going?

Given the success of the initial Soviet invasion how much of China's oil production would have been either in their area of occupation or in range of tactical aircraft in say the first six months of the war?

[shrike6]

Originally Posted by Olefin

One thing to keep in mind is that China until the mid-90's really didnt import fuel - they just didnt have enough cars to need more oil than they produced - so the real question may be how quickly did the Soviets damage their oil producing centers to where it became necessary to import fuel to keep their war effort going?

Given the success of the initial Soviet invasion how much of China's oil production would have been either in their area of occupation or in range of tactical aircraft in say the first six months of the war?

Their oil consumption would definitely be up even if there weren't a lot of imported oil to begin with. All of their armed forces should be using significantly more oil on a wartime footing versus peacetime. Also depending on how you interpret the winter of 1995-96 ""Winter had witnessed a flood of new modern equipment through Chinese ports from NATO nations particularly the United States." Depending on what you classify as modern equipment we sent them. The only equipment we gave to them for sure were Tank Breaker/Javelin systems and Assault Breaker/MLRS/ATACMS/JSTARS systems. We may be sending the Chinese 100s of Abrams Tanks as well, not exactly known as the Prius of Tanks.

[Olefin]

I could definitely see the US shipping them older surplus APC's for sure - considering that a lot of the Chinese infantry were either walking or riding in trucks (or for that matter using pack horses)

sending three hundred or so M113APC's would have definitely helped for sure - let alone older M48 and M60 tanks

And doesnt necessarily have to be the US - Turkey had 1500 plus old M59 APC's still in service in the mid-90's - and again its a heck of a lot better than a truck to go into combat with

[shrike6]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I could definitely see the US shipping them older surplus APC's for sure - considering that a lot of the Chinese infantry were either walking or riding in trucks (or for that matter using pack horses)

sending three hundred or so M113APC's would have definitely helped for sure - let alone older M48 and M60 tanks

And doesnt necessarily have to be the US - Turkey had 1500 plus old M59 APC's still in service in the mid-90's - and again its a heck of a lot better than a truck to go into combat with

I could see the US sending them older tanks as you mentioned as well if for no other reason then some Chinese Tanks use a Chinese Copy of the 105mm Gun. So the Ammo for the 105mm is already in their supply chain. The M60s and M48A5s would be a match for most of the Soviet armor they face early on anyways. They don't have to be to be built and are available in large quantities.