Twilight 2025

[Olefin]

"China naval duels with Vietnam, S. Korea, Australia."

Add in Taiwan or Philippines as well - then US forces try to intervene to get China to back down and in the scrum a US ship gets targeted by the Chinese (possibly accidentally) - and the US ship fires back and sinks the Chinese ship

That could very rapidly build into one hell of a regional conflict - and you could see Putin or his successor taking advantage of that to go into Eastern Europe to settle old scores with the Ukraine and Baltic States - and bingo - WWIII

[pmulcahy11b]

I personally think we'll be at war with China by the end of the decade. It won't be nuclear -- neither side is that stupid -- but it will be primarily naval in nature, with the occasional special ops raids in mainland China. Taiwan -- well, as one earlier poster said, China will mop the floor with Taiwan after a tough fight that is ultimately lost. After that, it will be a matter of whether China can KEEP Taiwan.

Two items that will be war zones that have never been before -- cyberspace and the space above us. China's been experimenting with killer sats, we can shoot down satellites as well warheads, and well, just imagine the capabilities of the X-37. And what if had more of them? (Hunch: I'll bet we do!)

[Targan]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Taiwan -- well, as one earlier poster said, China will mop the floor with Taiwan after a tough fight that is ultimately lost. After that, it will be a matter of whether China can KEEP Taiwan.

China could devastate Taiwan right now if it wanted to. Invading and pacifying Taiwan is probably within China's capabilities right now too, but the buildup of forces couldn't be hidden and would invite intervention by the US and its allies. Every year that goes by though, China's ability to mount a large-scale amphibious invasion will improve.

Thing is though, it comes down to what China's priorities are with Taiwan. If the primary priority is gaining Taiwan's industrial base, smashing it to bits in the process of conquering it kind of defeats the purpose. If the primary priority is ideological/making a point, then all bets are off.

We in the western world talk up a good game about human rights and military aggression and all that, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. We will invade and intervene and violate human rights when it suits us, it just comes down to how well the media story can be massaged and how much criticism we're prepared to take internationally. Given that reality, and what massive hypocrites many of our countries have been, trying to lean on China not to invade Taiwan on a moral basis is farcical. So, just like the US and other powerful nations, China won't make its decisions on Taiwan based on moral imperatives (and morally they think conquering Taiwan is righteous anyway). All they'll care about is cost-benefit, and how much international pushback they'll have to manage.

[ChalkLine]

What would be more likely to precipitate a war would be if a nation changed the international consensus that Taiwan is part of China and called it an independent state. This would force the PRC to invade Taiwan.

Australian politicians are calling for just that.

[Raellus]

If you haven't already, I really recommend that you read the Atlantic article I linked to. It presents several scenarios for how war with China could begin, each focusing on a different region/flashpoint.

Taiwan (Taiwan Straits)
Japan (Senkaku Islands in E. China Sea)
Philippines (S. China Sea)

It also explains why China might feel like their window of opportunity to seize territorial claims by force could be closing soon, due to increased military spending by Australia, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Arms races in the name of national defense deterrence often result in armed conflict. It's a dangerous game.

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[ChalkLine]

Originally Posted by Raellus

If you haven't already, I really recommend that you read the Atlantic article I linked to. It presents several scenarios for how war with China could begin, each focusing on a different region/flashpoint.

Taiwan (Taiwan Straits)
Japan (Senkaku Islands in E. China Sea)
Philippines (S. China Sea)

It also explains why China might feel like their window of opportunity to seize territorial claims by force could be closing soon, due to increased military spending by Australia, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Arms races in the name of national defense deterrence often result in armed conflict. It's a dangerous game.

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I'm sorry but I didn't want to comment on that article, it's pretty awful. The author is writing some pretty sensationalist stuff and from a historical perspective he's on very shaky ground. I mean, his opening comments wish to frame a power as a real and present danger but the nearest phase of belligerence he can come up with was 50 years ago. In comparison I think every power arrayed against China has indulged in a lot more regime change, coups and outright illegal invasions since then
As for small scale actions, once again we're far more likely to pull egregious shit like shooting down airliners to make a point than China since then.

Don't get me wrong, China is no shrinking violet or choir of angels, like every large power they're a bully and can be a particularly nasty one. However they're up against a concerted alliance of bigger bullies. As Charles de Gaulle once said "Great Powers are Cold Monsters". However when we start shrilly pointing to China's very real abuses it asks the question why we aren't also doing it about places like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It's obvious that our concerns aren't their behaviour or threat of expansion, it's due to the fact that the West will not tolerate a rival in any situation.

The reason I say this is because China is already winning and all it has to do at far less risk is continue what it is doing now; outproducing the West. In fact the West is doing one of the weirdest things in history in that they are strengthening an enemy while trying to contain it by continuously offshoring manufacturing to China and then rattling sabres like crazy. The logical assumption is they want to have their cake and eat it too.

The whole reason the USA was an unassailable superpower was that it contained the three key ingredients of modern power; a large population, a massive manufacturing base and large resource deposits. Inexplicably the entire West have decided to convert themselves to 'service economies', in essence middlemen, when the obvious fact is sooner or later middlemen get cut out was ignored in the face of big fat profits. Worse, they shifted that manufacturing to a potentially hostile power and assumed they could keep it in check through military threats. It was a losing 'diplomatic' assumption and we're paying for it now.

Worse, we've so gamed the WTO that no one trusts it. I'm afraid the US has blocked the appointment of every member of the World Trade Authority Appellate Body so now there is no body to mediate trade concerns. The West can hardly tout it's allegiance to a 'rules-based order' when we try and game it like this.

China is seeing what we're doing to it, 'containment', because it has both experienced this before earlier in its history and been part of the process when they pulled it on the USSR in conjunction with the West. Since then they've been quietly watching. In 2003 when we went and unilaterally invaded an admittedly despicable regime on trumped up charges and to China's concern suffered no repercussions it was then China started rapidly remilitarising from a power capable of bullying regional rivals to a power capable of defending itself against the West. Sure enough here we are.

So what do I think the flashpoints will be?

Well, none in that article although obviously we should prepare for them. The flashpoints will probably be the same dangers of the Cold War; some hawk bungling an action what he thinks the other side will tolerate and sparking a peer to peer war.

[Raellus]

You make some really good points, Chalk. I don't disagree that the west has been playing a dangerous game for far longer than the PRC, and that the west has been applying a double-standard to China when it comes to violations human rights and/or international law.

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

Inexplicably the entire West have decided to convert themselves to 'service economies', in essence middlemen, when the obvious fact is sooner or later middlemen get cut out was ignored in the face of big fat profits. Worse, they shifted that manufacturing to a potentially hostile power and assumed they could keep it in check through military threats. It was a losing 'diplomatic' assumption and we're paying for it now.

It's not inexplicable. It's the natural result of free market capitalism. Manufacturing shifted from the west to China because of lower labor costs in the latter. Similarly, China could charge less for its steel and heavy machinery because it spends less on labor. That trend began in the 1970s. Western corporations could/still can reap higher profits because they could/still can spend less on labor in China. We are seeing the geopolitical, as well as economic, consequences of that short-sighted, single-minded approach to business.

That said, labor costs are rising in China. It's going to be difficult to keep "winning" at heavy industry long-term, without artificially suppressing wages for their industrial workers. Doing so could lead to serious social unrest. Manufacturing is already much more dispersed in the developing world now than it was 20 years ago because other countries allow their factory workers to be paid even less. Today, China is being undercut by El Salvador and Bangladesh, the same way China undercut the West for most of the last four decades.

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

So what do I think the flashpoints will be?

Well, none in that article although obviously we should prepare for them. The flashpoints will probably be the same dangers of the Cold War; some hawk bungling an action what he thinks the other side will tolerate and sparking a peer to peer war.

I agree that a war sparked by clashes over the Senkaku Islands in E. China Sea (v Japan) is highly unlikely, ATM. That said, flashpoints in the S. China Sea have already seen threats and use of force in recent times.

China has clashed with Filipino fishermen and naval forces on multiple occasions over the past five years or so.

PRC intrusions in Taiwan airspace have increased dramatically as of late.

Articles about recent Chinese saber-ratting re Taiwan:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nse-zone-today

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...sest-to-taiwan

Yesterday, I read an article claiming that many Chinese are stocking up on essentials because they believe that recent government encouragement to do so indicates that a war with Taiwan is forthcoming.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/econo...hnk/index.html

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