OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Jason]

Blinken has green-lit the transfer of Polish fighters to Ukraine, which suggests we have reassured them of back-stopping thier loss. This does not mean any such transfer is iminent, but surely closer than it was a week ago on initial reports.

An unknown number of foriegn volunteers have entered Ukraine, which has lifted visa requirements. Ukraine suggests volunteers have fatigues and cold-weather gear.

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war?

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine?

Both scenarios seem unlikely right now, but things may be much more desperate by next week.

[Bestbrian]

Originally Posted by Jason

Blinken has green-lit the transfer of Polish fighters to Ukraine, which suggests we have reassured them of back-stopping thier loss. This does not mean any such transfer is iminent, but surely closer than it was a week ago on initial reports.

An unknown number of foriegn volunteers have entered Ukraine, which has lifted visa requirements. Ukraine suggests volunteers have fatigues and cold-weather gear.

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war?

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine?

Both scenarios seem unlikely right now, but things may be much more desperate by next week.

No to both. Putin isn't going to be looking to expand the war anywhere, since he can barely handle the one he has. What he most definitely will do is utilize captured foreign fighters for propaganda purposes as proof of the western conspiracy against Russia that was the supposed pretext for the Ukrainian invasion in the first place. Allowing Ukrainian aircraft to arm/refuel at NATO airbases and then return is effectively allowing them to fly sorties which is an overt act of aggression and would certainly be construed as a NATO attack upon Russia.

As an aside, Russia has already stated that foreign fighters in Ukraine would be treated as criminals and not afforded protections due to combatants, so these folks better plan on taking that into account.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Is that Wagner Group? If so, that "company" is essentially just a front for Spetsnaz (the name and PMC designation is a weak attempt at plausible deniability).

Originally Posted by Jason

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war?

He could, but it would be a fairly weak pretext. I agree with BestBrian's assessment.

Originally Posted by Jason

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine?

Not anytime soon, if ever. Doing so would give Russia a much stronger pretext for expanding the war.

What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily? It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle? In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.

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[Bestbrian]

Originally Posted by Raellus

What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily? It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle? In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.

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This is going to turn into a very active and very large insurgency actively supported by the world community and led by an extremely ticked off diaspora. I'm curious to see to what extent this spreads to Belarus. The ruling party there is only in power at the point of Russian bayonets. I could very well see a Belarus insurgency springing up (actively armed and supported by the one in Ukraine).

[Raellus]

Video circulating online today shows civilian vehicles- buses, cargo and tanker trucks, even sedans- spray-painted with Z recognition markings on Russian flatbed train cars in transit to Ukraine.

Several years ago, in the In Defense of the Red Army thread, someone pointed out that one of the Cold War Soviet army's most significant but little publicized weaknesses was its relative paucity of transport vehicles. Apparently, the post-1945 Soviet military-industrial complex learned nothing from the important role that Lend-Lease materiel played in defeating the German ground forces during WW2, and the Russian military has since inherited that gap in logistical thinking.

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[swaghauler]

Using the typical off-the-shelf Quadcopter as an armed drone. One has to wonder how many of these the Ukrainians have now?

https://youtu.be/Q3KkEMxA4EQ


By the way, I HIGHLY RECOMMEND Funker Tactical 530.

Swag

[swaghauler]

Here is a good analysis of Russia's logistical issues.

https://youtu.be/b4wRdoWpw0w

[Raellus]

The Russians are bringing back the armored train.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ion-of-ukraine

Speaking of recommendations, you may have noticed that I post a lot of articles from Warzone on The Drive. It's pretty much my go-to for contemporary military-related news. If you haven't already, check it out.

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