OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by kato13

What would you give the Ukrainian in this new phase?

Assistance for managing their displaced population in the western half of the country. Everyone's gonna want to go home, but "home" isn't there any more for a lot of them, and it'll be a matter of years before reconstruction really is a thing. The sooner everyone who's displaced can be resettled, find permanent housing, start contributing to the economy again, get their kids back into school, and re-establish themselves with social/tribal connections to new communities, the sooner Ukraine's long-term economic and political prospects improve.

- C.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by kato13

What would you give the Ukrainian in this new phase?

NODs. Ukraine doesn't have many. They've been using the CLU units from Javelin systems for night vision, to good effect. Luckily, Russian troops aren't very well-equipped with NODs either.

Some sort of western MLRS system. Something that can shoot-and-scoot, and fire a number of different rocket payloads. Imagine what a barrage of rockets dropping anti-armor submunitions on that miles-long Russian convoy outside of Kiev would do.

If Ukraine is ever going to take back territory currently held by Russian and/or Russian-backed forces, its going to need more artillery, more tactical airpower, and more AFVs. Despite the widespread reports of the demise of the MBT, troops are going to find it hard to make gains on the ground without supporting armor.

-

[kato13]

Zelenskyy says there will be no retaking of Crimea by force. Ukrainians are sick of war and destruction. This isn’t a hoorah war; it’s a national tragedy.

I expected this but not before negations started. Crimea was Russian until 1954 when clerically it made sense to move it to the Ukrainian Socialist Republic, so insurgency would be a nightmare. Donbass is going to be the final sticky wicket. Maybe some movement on borders or some land for cash (if Russia pays damages, which I expect would only be if Putin was gone and they want sanctions lifted.)

Originally Posted by kato13

What would you give the Ukrainian in this new phase?

I'd give them:

120mm mortars - Easier to manage logistics for than a howitzer battery. Pound those dug in Russian troops!

MOAR Drones - They are already using them to good effect. Again, jet aircraft need a shitload of logistics and when they go down, they take the pilot with them, unless recovered successfully. 1-2 million for a Bayraktar beats 24.8 million for a Mig-29.

MOAR things that need the /Guided qualification - Javelin, NLAW,
Stingers, etc. I'd like to see some cheap, medium ranged SAMs for them. Buying older Soviet systems like the SA-6 and such would be a good option. Shore based ASMs would be useful here. I think some of the nordic countries have relatively portable coastal defense Hellfire systems that would be very useful.

If this all seems like war on the cheap - it is. As Teg pointed out, Ukraine needs to be purposeful about reconstruction and preserving funds for that should be a priority.

Also - 2-6 training camps either in or outside of Ukraine. Have the Ukranian's rotate out company/battalion level units for training when/where possible. My understanding is that manpower isn't an issue - they are engaged in a national level mobilization of every military aged male. Training should be a priority - their performance to date shows impact of Operation ORBITAL and the like.

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

I'd give them:

120mm mortars - Easier to manage logistics for than a howitzer battery. Pound those dug in Russian troops!

MOAR Drones - They are already using them to good effect. Again, jet aircraft need a shitload of logistics and when they go down, they take the pilot with them, unless recovered successfully. 1-2 million for a Bayraktar beats 24.8 million for a Mig-29.

MOAR things that need the /Guided qualification - Javelin, NLAW,
Stingers, etc. I'd like to see some cheap, medium ranged SAMs for them. Buying older Soviet systems like the SA-6 and such would be a good option. Shore based ASMs would be useful here. I think some of the nordic countries have relatively portable coastal defense Hellfire systems that would be very useful.

If this all seems like war on the cheap - it is. As Teg pointed out, Ukraine needs to be purposeful about reconstruction and preserving funds for that should be a priority.

Also - 2-6 training camps either in or outside of Ukraine. Have the Ukranian's rotate out company/battalion level units for training when/where possible. My understanding is that manpower isn't an issue - they are engaged in a national level mobilization of every military aged male. Training should be a priority - their performance to date shows impact of Operation ORBITAL and the like.

Naval Hellfire is relatively short-ranged (~10 kilometers). Sisu, Scania, and Tatra have all made truck-based launchers for the RBS 15 missile (300+ kilometers depending on variant). "Both" might be acceptable here, since it layers defenses with different ranges for different purposes, although I believe Naval Hellfire is adapted from Longbow Hellfire, the newest examples of which date to 2005 and are going to age out of their certified lifespan soon.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Vespers War

Naval Hellfire is relatively short-ranged (~10 kilometers). Sisu, Scania, and Tatra have all made truck-based launchers for the RBS 15 missile (300+ kilometers depending on variant). "Both" might be acceptable here, since it layers defenses with different ranges for different purposes, although I believe Naval Hellfire is adapted from Longbow Hellfire, the newest examples of which date to 2005 and are going to age out of their certified lifespan soon.

The US Navy has more than a few Penguin Missiles. Give those to the Ukrainians.

What NATO should be doing is gathering up all of their older PACT equipment and giving it to both Ukraine AND Moldova. The US, Germany, and the UK could then transfer older equipment to the NATO allies who transferred equipment to "toughen up" their defensive posture. For instance, give Poland 250 M1 Abrams for her T72s and upgraded Twardy MBTs and have her transfer those PACT tanks to Russia (so they can abandon them in Ukraine?) & Moldova. Have her transfer her nearly 200 Leopard 2A4s to Slovakia, the Czechs, and Slovenia along with Canada's leopards and surplus from Germany's mothballed tanks so each one of those countries can have a mechanized division or two with COMMON EQUIPMENT. Give Poland an additional 200 M1s for those Leopards. This would bring Poland up to 450 M1s immediately with the 250 M1a3 SLEPS she already bought coming in as soon as they were ready. That would give Poland a STRONG Mechanized presence along the border. Having all those countries mentioned above transfer their T72s to Ukraine and Moldova would give them around 500 T72s and 130 upgraded Polish Twardy Tanks.

The US should give the Baltic States her old M60A3s in mothballs as well as M114 [155mm] Towed Howitzers and M102 [105mm] Towed Howitzers. Give them M113s as well. We will not deploy the M60s again and they are at least a match for a T72. We should have enough running surplus left to give the Baltic States each THREE Mechanized Brigades plus spares and training tanks. These NATO members currently have ZERO armor.

I'd give Romania the remaining M48A3s from the Marines as other NATO countries in the Balkans also operate that tank and resupply could then be regionalized in the event of a conflict. The Marine M48A3s also have wider tracks (for sand) and would be a better "fit" for Romania's mountainous terrain. Romania could then give her T55s to the African Union (the largest user of T55s) in exchange for BM-21 Rocket Launchers, which Ukraine could use more of. We can then give Romania M109s to bring her artillery power up.

For aircraft, give Poland's Migs to Ukraine NOW, and give her F16s in exchange. Joe has this wrong, the US has more than 800 F16s. Let's get Poland "upgraded" NOW, using this event to get everyone flying similar equipment. She can even give her Helos to Ukraine and we will replace them with Blackhawks, Chinooks, and Apaches since the US is planning to upgrade those forces anyway.
In fact, we should go father...

We have roughly 120 flight-worthy F4s that we convert to drones and Germany and England have almost the same number of Tornadoes between them. Let's get these out to the Baltic States (which have no functional air forces). Forty F4s and Forty Tornadoes aren't that impressive a force, but they are SOMETHING. Alternately, we could sell those aircraft to Africa or Asia and put F16s into the Baltic States' hands. We should buff up the Baltic States so they can at least make the Russians pay for any ground taken.

Let's upgrade our NATO members to send a message to Russia that the US is willing to go all-in on supporting ANY NATO member who is threatened.

[kato13]

As we all love maps.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPELjq1X...name=4096x4096

(too large to embed)

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

The US Navy has more than a few Penguin Missiles. Give those to the Ukrainians.

Are they shore-launched versions? AFAIK, if Ukraine has any navy at all left, it would take some doing to mount Penguins on essentially Warsaw Pact vessels. I imagine it would also be very tricky to rig UAF planes to launch Penguin (on the avionics-weapon targeting links side of things). The simplest, most practical platform ATM would, I imagine, be a land-based mobile launch system.

It makes a lot of sense to offload former Pact members' Pact-based heavy weaponry and aircraft and replace it with western stuff. A sticking point may be who foots the bill for it all. Western stuff is more expensive to purchase and maintain. What needs to happen (and we're starting to see a bit of it already) is that all NATO member nations' defense spending needs to pick up.

Re equipping the Baltic States' air forces with F-4s and other older models, it'll still take a couple of years to train up pilots and, by the time they're ready, those aircraft will be even further out of date. I'd love to see a deal between the Baltics and Sweden for Grippens. Not only is it a newer, arguably more capable (and probably cheaper) alternative, it would bind Sweden closer to NATO.

-