OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Astute analysis, Chico- spot on, IMHO.

I don't think that Ukraine is going to be able to retake the Donbass (militarily, at least). The Ukrainian armed forces have excelled in defensive ops, but offense requires a lot more training, C2, and heavy weapons. The tables will turn if/when Ukraine attempts a strategic counteroffensive. Russian troops have failed pretty spectacularly in offensive ops, but again, defense is simpler, and their backs will be up against home soil (increasing motivation and easing logistics issues). The Russians also have solid local support in the de-facto separatist-controlled regions.

It's hard to see Zelensky accepting permanent loss of regions of eastern Ukraine, especially in light of recent evidence of large-scale Russian war crimes, but there's probably not much he can do to stop it. He might be willing to cede Crimea at the negotiating table, but that's a fait accompli, but that's not likely to restore the status quo ante bellum. I don't see Putin as willing to give up anyterritory firmly under Russian control, so yeah, a frozen conflict seems the most likely outcome at this point.

The fates of Donbass and Mariupol might depend on which leader, Putin or Zelensky lasts longer. In that contest, the ruthless autocrat has the advantage.

-

[kato13]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPi7zvlX...name=4096x4096

Again too big to embed

[Raellus]

Cool find, Kato. Just wish the city names were easier to read.

Re the article linked below, it must be frustrating for Russian soldiers to be facing off against fresh waves of Russian-made (or designed, at least) AFVs. If Moscow only knew then (back in the 1970s & '80s) what it knows now...



https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine

I hope this deal doesn't get blocked like the 3rd party MiG-29 transfer.

-

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Cool find, Kato. Just wish the city names were easier to read.

Re the article linked below, it must be frustrating for Russian soldiers to be facing off against fresh waves of Russian-made (or designed, at least) AFVs. If Moscow only knew then (back in the 1970s & '80s) what it knows now...



https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine

I hope this deal doesn't get blocked like the 3rd party MiG-29 transfer.

-

The way some of the Czech articles were phrased, it sounded like the vehicles have already been moved. The tanks, unfortunately, are "monkey model" T-72M1, the export version of the T-72A, which is hideously outdated. It's understandable that the Czechs wouldn't transfer any of their 30 T-72M4CZ that have been modernized (they have ~80-90 T-72M1 that weren't modernized), but the T-72M1 is basically a deathtrap on the modern battlefield. They're best used as either training vehicles or parts donors for Ukraine's modernized T-72 tanks. The BMP-1 will probably enter service as quickly as Ukraine can check them and replace any Czech language markers with Ukrainian ones, because Ukraine uses literally hundreds of BMP-1 in their military.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Cool find, Kato. Just wish the city names were easier to read.
-

The creator also has the Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front where the names are clearer.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPou3yHX...name=4096x4096

Here is the latest largest picture
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPouUCxW...name=4096x4096

Source
https://twitter.com/JominiW/
Not normally a twitter fan but information is information.

[pmulcahy11b]

When this is over, Ukraine is going to need something like the Marshall Plan after World War 2. I heard a report on NewsNation that it will take more than $1 trillion to rebuild Ukraine.