On this day 25 years ago (Commentary Thread)

[pmulcahy11b]

How has the Twilight War impacted the international stock market and banking system?

[bash]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

How has the Twilight War impacted the international stock market and banking system?

I would posit that most securities/commodity markets probably shutter as soon as nuclear weapons start being used. No trader is going to want to be in one of the cities that is a potential nuke target and have the resources to leave. They'll all skip town for their cabins and cottages outside of the metro areas.

Banking would probably fall under emergency controls to prevent bank runs and riots and that kinds of thing. We'd also see everyone setting government enforced price controls for essential commodities. Non-essential items would see prices skyrocket but for basics the various governments would likely want to prevent price gouging. The effectiveness of price controls would basically extend only as far as police enforcing such things.

[Targan]

Yes the movement of manufactured goods internationally by sea would be hugely disrupted by mid-'97. And goods manufactured in China would pretty much have ceased to exist. Exports from Japan and Taiwan would massively jump in price with the combined impacts of restricted shipping, huge fuel costs, maritime insurance somewhere between difficult and impossible to obtain, and the manufacturers themselves having having a hard time getting raw materials and paying exorbitant prices for them.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

How has the Twilight War impacted the international stock market and banking system?

I could write a book on this, but it would be a long and boring book!

A few thoughts...

The effect would not be uniform. Germany's economy would be among the hardest hit... mobilization, absorbing the east, war damage, the cut off of energy from the USSR and the closure of the Italian, French and Belgian borders would each individually be severe hits. On the other hand, the US, Australia and Canada would initially be less severely affected, immune from physical damage but burdened by the massive government spending and mobilization adjustments. In this environment I could see a reversion to fixed exchange rates to lowering the damage to Germany from international investors fleeing to more attractive markets. Within non-front line economies the winning sectors would be defense (obviously), transportation equipment (trucks, shipbuilding, aircraft) and construction (for the facilities needed for mobilization). Others might be parts of hospitality (as people flee the cities) and food processing. Sectors that would be suffering could be insurance, ship operators and airlines (balancing losses of assets with sky-high demand and premium rates by government buyers), entertainment (although we know that TV sitcom production continues up to and past the TDM!) and international travel and trade. Commodity markets would be volatile as the war at sea disrupts normal trade patterns, another area where there might be government intervention and price controls. In the US we might see an increase in government deposit insurance for individuals and small businesses to shore up the banks.

All these combine to create a really volatile stock market. Rest assured, traders are going to be active trying to make a profit from each up and down!

[Louied]

Chico,

Pedant hat on.....
1st Battalion, Northumbrian Volunteers, a Home Service Force unit, is raised in Bishop Auckland in northern England. It is built around a core of former service members and equipped with largely obsolescent FAL rifles, Bren LMGs and a platoon's contingent of Humber Pig APCs and assigned local security duties, including hunting down rumored Spetsnaz teams.

It would more likely be that the HSF Coy, IRL, E (HSF) Coy 7 LI (1 Pl @ Bishop Auckland), would become a Bn of the Light Infantry. There was discussion of using the HSF Coys as command cadres for Reservists who would be mobilized for MHD. The initial role for the HSF was KP Defence, however it was quickly realized that the Old & Bold in some units could outwit & outmaneuver even THEM in exercises. They wanted to utilize this wealth of military knowledge and, as one ex-squaddie put it, trickery!

Equipment wise, there was definitely enough Pigs & Saracens, I do have documents from the mid/late 80's that indicate some MHD Coys being formed from reservists would have to be issued '37 or '44 Pattern web gear and SMLE No.4 Rifles!!!

[chico20854]

August 9, 1997

Nothing in canon for the day. Unofficially,

The Queen’s Royal Irish Hussars are deployed to the continent to reinforce I British Corps in Bavaria. The Chieftain tank battalion comes from UK Land Forces' strategic reserve.

The Foreign Minister calls the Argentine ambassador to confront him about the departure of the Argentine naval task force (its movement confirmed by American satellites). The ambassador (truthfully) reports that he is unaware of the development and relays the message to Buenos Aires. Nonetheless, HM Government orders reinforcement of the garrison infantry company on the islands.

As the lead American battalions of the 2nd Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division bash their way through Soviet lines, the division's support command tries to impose some order among the thousands of panicked Chinese troops that want to accompany the American force south. Working with the division's MP company, many of the Chinese troops are disarmed and assigned duties as porters. The most experienced (and especially, those that can speak English or Korean) are assigned as squad leaders for ad-hoc CATUSA (Chinese Augmentees to the US Army, modeled on the long-standing KATUSA program that bulked up US Army units with South Korean conscripts) squads, assigned to round-up American infantry platoons. In Pyongyang, South Korean troops close in on the ruins of the 1st of May Stadium, last holdout of the fanatical defenders o Pyongyang.

The 60th Bomb Squadron, 43rd Bomb Wing disperses some of its B-52s to Guam International Airport, out of the blast zone of nuclear weapons that might be targeted at Anderson Air Force Base or Guam Naval Station.

The 257th Motor-Rifle Division arrives at the front, where it is assigned to reinforce the battered 3rd Guards Tank Army.

II MEF (the US Marine's 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force), previously located in Denmark and previously mostly concerned with coordinating support for three widely spread Marine Expeditionary Brigades, takes an active role as a front-line corps with 5th Marine Division, the 6th Marine Expeditionary Brigade and the German 18th Coast Defense Regiment under command. It also secures the release of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade from Norway along with its associated Marine Aircraft Group 14. The headquarters moves into northeastern Poland, assaulting Kaliningrad along the coast.

XXIII US Corps rotates the battered 40th Infantry Division from the lines in southern Warsaw to the front in the east, where its AFVs and tanks will be more fruitfully employed. The 40th's positions are assumed by the former West German border guards of the 2nd GrenzJaeger Division.

As rough weather approaches the Baltic, and given the poor condition of the ship, the commander of the USS Iowa salvage effort makes the decision to beach the battleship on a gentle section of the German Baltic Coast. Within a few hours the view from the pretty resort town of Boltenhagen is drastically changed, with 58,000 tons of steel lurking offshore.

Catania is the last major town in Sicily to fall under NATO control when Spanish Marines arrive. American and Canadian troops begin a sweep of the island to round up any surviving defenders.

It being a week after the mobilization order was given, the dictatorial Albanian ruler Kiço Bedaj and the Politburo demand a status report. The defense minister reports that the Army and the Voluntary Forces of Popular Self-Defense militia have manned the 175,000 bunkers scattered around the country and are ready to repulse a combined NATO-Pact-Jugoslav invasion. If a combined air and amphibious assault is launched, like the one just unleashed on Sicily, it would fail as the landing force would be brought under immediate fire from the nearest bunkers while one of the nation's tank brigades would soon arrive to overrun the landing site. Bedaj asks about the Army's ability to intervene to protect the oppressed Albanian minorities in nearby Kosovo and Macedonia. The defense minister explains that the Army is not deployed to carry that mission out, with the tank brigades spread around the nation to counter an enemy invasion, and a repositioning will take weeks since the Army only possesses a dozen tank transporters.

The USAF 57th Fighter Interceptor Squadron and the 465th Tactical Fighter Squadron in Keflavik, Iceland scramble all available aircraft to prevent a repeat of the prior day's massacre in the air lanes across the North Atlantic, while NATO airlift planners route more aircraft across the mid-Atlantic, flooding the Azores with as many aircraft as it can land and refuel. Anticipating such a response, the Soviets ground the Tu-22M2DPs temporarily.

Allied logistics teams in Iran complete their cleanup of the battlefield from the Battle of the Valley some weeks prior. Australian fitters are able to recover all of the damaged Leopard tanks that had been lost in the battle and restore over 80 percent of them to service, while Iranian teams (many composed of grizzled veterans of the superhuman efforts needed to sustain the war effort against Iraq in the 80s) have amazingly been able to recover over 100 T-34/85s lost by the Soviet 69th Tank Division. Forty are restored to running condition and issued to lower-quality infantry divisions while the rest are hauled off to be emplaced as pillboxes around Shiraz and guarding choke points in the Zagros Mountains.

At the Kapustin Yar test site in south-central Russia, scientists and engineers from the Kolomna Machine-Building Design Bureau launch the first of a series of six SS-23 missiles fitted with an experimental new guidance package that, using technology developed from salvage from downed and crashed American Tomahawk cruise missiles, is nearly 7 times more accurate than the seeker currently fitted. The test is a success, hitting 12 m from the aim point when fired 500 km.

[chico20854]

August 10, 1997

Another day with nothing in the canon. Unofficially,

1st Brigade, 49th Armored Division (Texas National Guard) completes Rotation 97-8 at NTC-3 at the Yuma Proving Grounds in Arizona and is declared combat ready, redeeming the brigade and its new commander after a disastrous NTC rotation in late 1996 that led to new leadership, re-equipment with M1/M2-series vehicles and widescale retraining and replacement of personnel.

A high-priority airlift carries the headquarters and first company of the 4th Battalion, The Kings Own Border Regiment to Ascension Island, en route to the Falklands.

Heavy fighting continues in central Pyongyang as gangs of POWs and engineers clear rubble from roads through the capital, creating a main supply route to the front to the north. The MSR speeds the flow of reinforcements and supplies to the beleagured troops of the US I and IX Corps and their Korean and Commonwealth allies to the north, who had previously been relying on a patchwork of secondary roads, marginal in the best of times, for the bulk of their support.

The Dutch Marine Corps, in order to exploit the vast pool of Marine reservists, (over 1500 of them under the age of 35) who have not been called up for service in the three Amphibious Combat Groups or four Security Groups, forms the 9th Marine Amphibious Combat Group. The Dutch government intends to use the unit to support NATO operations in the Mediterranean, potentially in operations in Sicily, Jugoslavia or Turkey. Due to the situation the formation is equipped with obsolescent weapons from war stockpiles (FAL rifles, Uzi SMGs, 106mm recoilless rifles instead of Dragon or Tank Breaker missiles, .50 caliber machineguns instead of Stinger missiles for air defense) and requisitioned civilian vehicles for mobility ashore.

The US 6th Marine Expeditionary Brigade and troops of the 27th Marines launch a predawn transit of the Vistula Lagoon in AAVP-9 amphibians, assaulting the Soviet naval base at Baltiysk. The remnants of the base (it was first attacked by Marineflieger Tornadoes in November and has been struck numerous times since then) are defended by the sailors and shoreside staff, formed into the ad-hoc Division Baltiysk. Fierce fighting rages throughout the town, and the coming of the dawn makes any further crossings of the lagoon perilous at best. Allied naval forces are active offshore, and the American destroyer Coontz, returned to action following multiple repairs, provides naval gunfire support with its 5-inch gun.

Remaining British and Canadian units in Norway are pulled out, staging in England in preparation for deployment to Iran, where the situation continues to look bleak.

The Soviet 45th (my 32nd) and 4th Armies are maintaining pressure on XVIII Airborne Corps in Iran. They have pushed 9th ID's screen back to the town of Ardakan high in the Zagros Mountains. To their east 40th Army has surrounded the 1st Marine Division at Yadz, although their cordon is leaky enough that small caravans of Iranian civilians (some contracted by the Americans or Iranian intelligence) are able to slip through, bringing small quantities of ammunition, food and fuel to the Marines. To the west, 7th Army is slowly driving the 24th Infantry Division south, back towards the defense lines it had maintained throughout May and June.

Two more SS-23 missiles are fired at Kapustin Yar. They reflect similar increases in accuracy.

[chico20854]

August 11, 1997

The 106th Guards Air Assault Division, a high command reserve unit, is brought forward into Poland from its home station of Tula.

The 1st Tank Division enters action on the Polish-Ukrainian border; the veterans of the war in China, assigned to 1st Guards tank Army, face off against the German 2nd PanzerGrenadier Division.

Unofficially,

The Freedom ship Dallas Freedom is delivered in Galveston, Texas.

A Soviet spetsnaz team locates the rear headquarters of the Dutch 102nd Artillery Group; following its doctrine it immediately attacks and temporarily overruns it, capturing a number of documents before being driven off by a counterattack by a scratch force of Dutch mechanics, truck drivers and clerks. The remnants of the US Army Berlin Brigade (consolidated into two weak battalions) is alerted for deployment to the Warsaw perimeter, where its urban combat expertise could be best used.

The Battle of Baltiysk continues, with the 28th Marine Regiment ferried into the city overnight and a flight of A-7Es of VA-66, operating off the USS Coral Sea, stopping a Soviet reinforcement column with an attack with three B-57 nuclear bombs as they approached the city.

Convoy 161 forms in the North Sea for a voyage to North America. It contains many of the ships from Convoy 158 that brought the 5th Marine Division to Europe, the Freedom ships Austin, Birmingham, Michigan and Oklahoma Freedom and over 40 other assorted merchantmen. The escort consists of two American frigates (the Brooke and Kauffman), the former Coast Guard cutters Munro and Tahoma, the Canadian destroyer Maragee, all led by the American destroyer Harry W Hill.

At the next Albanian Politburo session, the minister of the economy reports that the mobilization has stripped approximately one third of the labor force and that as a consequence the goals of the latest Five-Year plan are unlikely to be achieved. Oil production has been halved from the nation's oil fields and four refineries, the copper smelters are operating at half capacity. The wholesale callup of the nation's educated men (who form the officer corps) will soon cripple the major industrial enterprises. The minister of agriculture reports that the fall harvest, which usually requires the deployment of over half the peacetime Army, will be catastrophic unless the units currently on alert are allocated to assist in the harvest. The minister of transport reports that the nation will soon have all recalled reservists en route to their mobilization stations, the national fleet of nearly 5000 buses able to reach most of the remote mountain towns along the Jugoslav and Greek borders.

photo
The carrier USS Independence, operating in the Arabian Sea, is struck by a Type-65 torpedo from the Sierra-class SSN K-534, and is lucky to stay afloat after receiving extensive damage. It loses two of its four propellers and a rudder is hopelessly jammed, along with a prop shaft blown out by the torpedo (the ship's Nixie torpedo decoy worked-barely). There is some internal flooding and shock damage as well.

The SS-23 test firing series is disrupted when the first of two missiles to be fired for the day explodes shortly after launch.