OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by kato13

The Leopards (I or II) will be a nice addition.

Odd discovery. I have been pronouncing the tank name wrong for 4 decades, as leh-paRd. However I heard General Petraeus (who I would think is light years better informed than I) says it as Lee-oh-pard.

Google and youtube confirm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzT8mlh-jIU

US MLRS and M2 Bradley IFV's, UK Challenger's, FRG Leopard II's, French AMX-10's-the Ukraine is beginning to resemble a NATO composite battle group in equipment terms-minus the actual soldiers and support staff. A battlefield "slice" if you will of the Alliance.

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

US MLRS and M2 Bradley IFV's, UK Challenger's, FRG Leopard II's, French AMX-10's-the Ukraine is beginning to resemble a NATO composite battle group in equipment terms-minus the actual soldiers and support staff. A battlefield "slice" if you will of the Alliance.

Like a 90's battle group...

We'd clean the Ruzzian's clock if NATO was unleashed on them with current equipment, professional troops, and unconstrained logistics.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

We'd clean the Ruzzian's clock if NATO was unleashed on them with current equipment, professional troops, and unconstrained logistics.

Indeed. Were it not for the threat of armageddon, I'd love to see that happen.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by Spartan-117

Like a 90's battle group...

We'd clean the Ruzzian's clock if NATO was unleashed on them with current equipment, professional troops, and unconstrained logistics.

I think a National Guard division like the 36th probably could have defeated the Russian invasion by itself. Much less an active duty division, much less a full corps with air supremacy.

Ironically, I really think the outcome of this conflict is going to be the emergence of Poland as the dominant military land power in Europe. Their buying spree is impressive, and they are going for pretty much top of the line gear. They'll have an armored force about 6-8x the size of Germany's.

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

I think a National Guard division like the 36th probably could have defeated the Russian invasion by itself. Much less an active duty division, much less a full corps with air supremacy.

Ironically, I really think the outcome of this conflict is going to be the emergency of Poland as the dominant military land power in Europe. Their buying spree is impressive, and they are going for pretty much top of the line gear. They'll have an armored force about 6-8x the size of Germany's.

And given Poland's history, who could blame them?

Since we're all commanding from our armchairs, I'll go out on a limb here. The result of this war has already been decided, and Putin has lost. I just don't see a path forward for Russia where it becomes able to achieve it's operational/strategic goals, not with the losses they've already suffered.

Russia's best bet is to effectively force Ukraine to concede the land already occupied, but short of a major catastrophe, I don't see Ukraine agreeing to concessions anytime soon. As far as cards to play, Russia could and will resort to additional mobilizations, but without the supporting training, equipment, and leadership, those men are just being fed into a meat grinder. All accounts of Bakhmut are showing Russians using human wave attacks. That isn't a recipe for gaining operational momentum.

The west seems ready to keep supporting Ukraine with equipment for the long haul, and Russia's munitions are shrinking drastically. Reports are showing that they've already reached, and potentially surpassed, critical levels of long range missiles. Their armor forces seem to be gutted, with likely somewhere around 1800-2000 tank losses so far. Much the same with artillery systems. The aircraft situation seems nominally better, but Russia appears averse to flying sorties over Ukrainian airspace, probably doubly so now that Patriots are in theater. And Russia's ability to produce anything advanced has been cut off at the knees due to heavy sanctions and lack of microchips.

Anything can happen of course, but short of walking away with some of the already occupied territory (of god forbid, using nukes), I just can't see Putin achieving any kind of real victory in Ukraine.

[Raellus]

Broadly, I agree with your assessment, Heffe. I do, however, think it really depends on how long Putin is willing to fight this war. Russia has a significantly larger pool of fighting age men. Even if the Ukrainians produce 3 casualties for every 1 sustained, they'll run out of soldiers first. Can Russian gov't, econ., and society hold out long enough for that to happen? Probably not, but the possibility can't be discounted.

This piece does a pretty good job of analyzing demographic trends in relation to the war.

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-demog...aine-vs-russia

-

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Broadly, I agree with your assessment, Heffe. I do, however, think it really depends on how long Putin is willing to fight this war. Russia has a significantly larger pool of fighting age men. Even if the Ukrainians produce 3 casualties for every 1 sustained, they'll run out of soldiers first. Can Russian gov't, econ., and society hold out long enough for that to happen? Probably not, but the possibility can't be discounted.

This piece does a pretty good job of analyzing demographic trends in relation to the war.

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-demog...aine-vs-russia

-

That's very fair, but at some point the lack of equipment will result in casualties far in excess of 3:1. You can't just have men with rifles running in against combined forces in well entrenched positions forever.

I kind of suspect the reason why Leopards and Challies are currently on offer is because Ukraine knows that in order for their own forces to go on the offense, they need better armor support, and have communicated that to friendly western nations. If Russia sustains another major defeat or two, Putin risks losing the support of the mil-bloggers, and then that of the people. We'll have to see how that all plays out.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Heffe

That's very fair, but at some point the lack of equipment will result in casualties far in excess of 3:1. You can't just have men with rifles running in against combined forces in well entrenched positions forever.

Agreed. Your example cuts both ways, though, when it comes to offensive operations. The Russians have just captured Soledar after weeks of heavy fighting. Can the Ukrainians afford to sustain a 3:1 casualty ratio to retake it?

And Ukraine is running out of ammunition too, in particular for its artillery. Although local production has recently ramped up, it can't keep up with demand. Recent reports are that artillery fires have diminished from both sides. NATO is having a difficult time providing enough fresh shells and rockets to keep up with Ukrainian expenditures. They've been outsourcing resupply to "unaligned" countries (like Pakistan), but that supply is going to dry up soon as well.

Originally Posted by Heffe

I kind of suspect the reason why Leopards and Challies are currently on offer is because Ukraine knows that in order for their own forces to go on the offense, they need better armor support, and have communicated that to friendly western nations. If Russia sustains another major defeat or two, Putin risks losing the support of the mil-bloggers, and then that of the people. We'll have to see how that all plays out.

I hope that turns out to be the case. The UAF is probably going to have to repel a large-scale Russian offensive in the spring before it can go over to the offensive again. That's what Ukrainian intel is saying, at least. There's growing concern that said offensive will include another lunge at Kiev out of Belarus. There're also rumblings that the Belarussian military might be taking part in same. If that were to happen, the strategic calculus of Ukraine and NATO is going to have to change.

-

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

Ironically, I really think the outcome of this conflict is going to be the emergence of Poland as the dominant military land power in Europe. Their buying spree is impressive, and they are going for pretty much top of the line gear. They'll have an armored force about 6-8x the size of Germany's.

Their problem is that they don't have the people for such a force. And while they said they'd be increasing defense spending to 3 % of their GDP, that money needs to be found within their total budget. That's not an easy feat. Plus, their army would need a hell of a lot more maintenance, supply and infantry units just to support all those new tanks and have battle line in front of all those HIMARS artillery units.

This is going to be an interesting time for Poland, indeed. If they don't find the money, their reform and resizing implodes. If they find the money, a lot of other stuff won't get funded and even more deficit will be built up.