OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[micromachine]

I believe the UAE government cancelled the order for the F35 in favor of the Dassualt Rafale F4. This seems to make sense as they are already a high end F16 operator (Block 60, which they funded development of), and they have experience with the Mirage 2000.

[Raellus]

Prick-ozhin claims that Wagner forces have captured Bakhmut. The head of the UAF denies this.

https://apnews.com/article/bakhmut-r...decd40b17d2d8b

Obviously, take Prick-ozhin's claims with a grain of salt. However, if what he says is true, that's not necessarily a bad thing for Ukraine, strategically-speaking. Reports earlier this week (confirmed) indicated that the UAF had gained ground on both Russian flanks, north and south of the city. If Bakhmut has indeed been captured, Wagner and the Russians may have laid a trap for themselves in the salient they've created. I'd love to see the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive slice through the shoulders of the bulge, trap Wagner and the Russian forces now in the Bakhmut salient, and tear a huge hole in the Russian's lines. From what I've read over the past couple of months, the Russians haven't fortified the front lines around Bakhmut has much as they have the neck of the Crimean peninsula. If that is indeed the case, it makes a lot of sense for Ukraine to try to breach the Russian lines around Bakhmut and exploit same with deep penetrations where their new, Leopard II-equiped maneuver brigades can take advantage of the open ground.

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[Vespers War]

Yeah, the UAE has 80 Rafale F4 on order for delivery starting in 2027. Reports from around the time the deal was signed in late 2021 were that the Rafale would replace UAE's remaining Mirage 2000 and serve alongside the F-16.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Reports earlier this week (confirmed) indicated that the UAF had gained ground on both Russian flanks, north and south of the city. If Bakhmut has indeed been captured, Wagner and the Russians may have laid a trap for themselves in the salient they've created. I'd love to see the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive slice through the shoulders of the bulge, trap Wagner and the Russian forces now in the Bakhmut salient, and tear a huge hole in the Russian's lines.

This is precisely what I've assumed the Ukrainians are doing. Wagner are now in complete control of... what? A giant pile of rubble? Meanwhile they're about to be completely cut off from resupply and quite possibly wiped out to a man. Which will no doubt be thoroughly satisfying for both the Ukrainians and the Russian Army.

[Heffe]

The news around Bakhmut seems incredibly... dynamic, at the moment, so I'd take just about everything with a grain of salt. According to most every mapping group I've seen, Russia has indeed taken Bakhmut itself. But, there's also evidence that Ukraine is pushing in from no less than 4 different directions in local counterattacks on Bakhmut's flanks. You have Prigozhin stating that Russia is in control of Bakhmut, but then Ukraine claiming that Russia isn't, and even supposed videos of Ukrainian SpecOps just openly patrolling through areas of Bakhmut in the daytime. And Prigozhin is also claiming that Wagner is now going to leave Ukraine entirely? Indeed, dynamic.

In all likelihood, I do think Bakhmut has likely fallen to Russia. Whether or not it will stay that way will probably depend a lot on where the counteroffensive happens. There's a part of me that would love to see Ukraine slash in to encircle Bakhmut to further erode Russia's already terrible morale, but whether that's a higher priority target than places elsewhere - we'll have to wait and see.

[Ursus Maior]

So, pro-Ukrainian Russian combatants have entered the Russian oblast of Belgorod, meeting few initial resistance and capturing several border villages. Apparently, the Russians are still coordinating their resistance, but front line aviation, including jets and helicopters have been attacking the attackers. Currently, it looks like a raid to former US Army general Mark Hertling (https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...38470037422080), who again laid out some thought on the operation today. Yesterday, he wrote that the operation is likely part of Ukrainian battlefield shaping, forcing Russian Armed Forces to react at a point along the front, which is unlikely to be the focus of upcoming Ukrainian counter offensive actions. It seems, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to put their Russian counterparts into a bind, by either having to allocate precious forces from along their front in Ukraine or have a raiding party in their back, wreaking havoc on an oblast with major GLOCs running into Donbas.

The raiding party seems to consist mainly or solely of two detachments. One being the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC, sometimes also abbreviated RDK for Russian "Russkiy dobrovol'cheskiy korpus"), an organization with right-wing extremist influences allegedly still led (and founded) by neo-nazi Denis Nikitin. The other being the socially liberal oriented Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL, sometimes also abbreviated LSR for Russian "Svoboda Rossii"; hence also known as Svoboda). Both combat units allegedly are part of the larger movement named "Irpin Declaration", but only Svoboda openly commits to the cause.

So far, this raid looks like a text book operation in what 18th century warfare called "Kleiner Krieg" (petty warfare), i. e. operations conducted by small elements of troops in reconnaissance, sabotage, guerrilla, and terrorism in order to demoralize, confuse and exhaust the enemy, destroy specific goods, inhibit logistics, liberate POWs (probably not in this case), kill specific enemy personnel (unclear at this moment), gather intelligence and capture enemy assets.

Currently, several armored vehicles of the RuAF have been captured and repurposed by the raiders, with own losses kept disclosed. A single American made infantry mobility vehicle as been confirmed lost by OSINT. Traditional doctrine for a raid calls for the party to keep their operation short, bring all their supplies themselves or use captured supplies if need be and then egress behind friendly lines before heavier enemy reinforcements can be brought in to destroy the raiders.

Naturally, Russian social media is running hot. Especially since the raiders allegedly captured Russian police vehicles and uniforms and are now feared to extend their correctly flagged raid into possible false flag operations or in other forms might try to infiltrate and seep into the territory or even the security apparatus of the Russian Federation.

An interesting, and possibly thought-giving (at least for referees), operation!

[kato13]

I have a feeling we are going to be hearing a lot about the
Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant
in the next few days.

Multiple sources say it is destroyed.

It is

• The source of water for the Crimean Peninsula
• The reservoir for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
• A major source of electricity in the Russian controlled regions.

The effects are massive for and against both sides of this conflict.

• Slowing potential Ukrainian Advances
• Adding difficulty to Dnieper river crossings
• Flooding Russian defensive fortifications and mine fields
• Losing power and water supplies to vast regions of Russian controlled Ukraine
• Further disrupting nuclear plant operations.

And to complicate things even more it could be an engineering failure rather than as a result of a controlled demolition or attack. I am going to be watching this one closely.

[Raellus]

Yeah, both sides stand to both profit and lose by the destruction of the dam. Both sides are claiming innocence and blaming the other. Another possibility, although remote, IMHO, is that the dam somehow gave out on its own, without "help" from either side- either as a result of poor maintenance, age, previous damage, etc. Time will tell.

It looks like Ukraine's long awaited "Spring" offensive is finally getting underway. So far, no one in the Western media seems to know what's going on. Again, there are conflicting reports. The fog of war is thick today.

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