OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Thanks, Vespers and Paul. Paul, did you see that piece about the Cold War era experimental Polish assault rifle I posted in the Best That Never Was thread?

In other news, I bet Putin is really wishing he'd kept his dog, Wagner, on a much shorter leash.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...ff7db5b1bded34

First stop on Wagner's 2023 Mutiny Tour: Rostov

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...ff7db5b1bded34

Slava Ukraini!

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[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Thanks, Vespers and Paul. Paul, did you see that piece about the Cold War era experimental Polish assault rifle I posted in the Best That Never Was thread?

Sounds interesting, if unfinished.

I'm on the Golo diet now. I have more energy now, and have already lost a little weight. I may work on that.

I just finished a major update to the F-15 Eagle. It's not posted yet, though.

[Raellus]

Glad to hear that you're feeling more energetic, Paul.

In mutiny news, just like that, it ended almost as soon as it began. The poll had been up all of 15 minutes when news broke that Prigozhin had ordered his troops to cease fire and turn back short of Moscow.

One really has to wonder what Prigozhin was thinking. Did he really think he could overthrow Putin? Did he believe, going in, that he could force Putin to the bargaining table? Wagner hadn't yet suffered a big defeat at the hand of Loyalist forces, so why did he decide to call it off?

This BBC article does a really good job explaining why this all most likely happened.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66013532

After all of this drama, I suspect that Prigozhin will not be dying of natural causes or old age.

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[pmulcahy11b]

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

[Targan]

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Targan

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

Completely agreed. The mafia lieutenant just made the don look like a weak old fool - it's not going to go well for anyone involved. Also Targan, your Machiavelli quote signature is particularly apt for a number of reasons on this one.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

Quite correct in my view. Even in Byelorussia, Prigozhin should avoid walking by open windows, riding on escalators or eating anything lest he suffer a dreadful "accident" like so many former Kremlin plutocrats have recently.

[Raellus]

Re Prig, he's probably a dead man walking. There's still a chance that Putin gives Prig an opportunity to redeem himself by allowing him to continue to direct Wagner forces from Belarus. That way, both parties can have their cake and eat it too.

It's really hard to see Putin keeping Prig around indefinitely, though. One article I read yesterday suggested that Prig might try to run as a candidate in the next presidential election. If Putin plans to run for reelection again (and I've seen nothing to suggest that he won't), I can't see him allowing that to happen.

Now, here's some good news:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...bef42633&ei=17

Hopefully, this is the first of much more to come.

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[Raellus]

I'm pleased to see the US finally acquiesce to sending DPCIM shells to Ukraine. The timing could have been a lot better, though. DPCIMs are more effective against trench systems than conventional artillery rounds; some versions are deadly for masses of armored vehicles in the open. If the Ukrainians had those thousands of pledged DPCIM rounds 1-2 months ago, I suspect their summer offensive would have made even more progress by now, with fewer UAF casualties. Better late than never, I guess.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ster-munitions

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