OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by Heffe

I've been seeing some analysis on the recent batch of Russian planes going down. The gist seems to suggest the following:

• Russia's been making heavy use of glide bombs lately, which they largely credit with their recent success in Avdiivka. These glide bombs can only be dropped currently from Su-34s and Su-35s, and require those planes to increase altitude up to a few thousand meters, during which time they're vulnerable to AA.
• While the A50 was shot down allegedly using an S200 missile variant, those missiles aren't really suitable for hitting fighters at extended range due to lack of maneuverability.
• Germany recently delivered on a second MIM-104 system in December with accompanying advanced radar system. The first one of these systems is allegedly stationed outside Kiev, while the second seems a good candidate for the types of hits being delivered over the last month. My understanding is that Ukraine is up to at least 4 batteries with 6 launchers total (2 systems from the US, 2 systems from Germany now, and 2 launchers from the Dutch).

Yeah, the S-200 is definitely not a fighter-killer. It's an 7-tonne whale of a missile whose warhead alone is 2/3 the weight of an entire PAC-3 missile. It was intended to knock down strategic bombers at very long range; they're perfectly fine against those or cargo aircraft or tankers or AWACS, things which tend to fly high, relatively slow, and don't maneuver well. Against a fighter or attack aircraft that is smaller, faster, and can pull more extreme maneuvers, it's outclassed. Square Pair (the ground-based tracking radar) can track those sorts of targets, but AFAIK the missile has never successfully engaged a small target. It's not a bad system, especially for the era in which it was developed, just specialized.

[Raellus]

The Russian navy has involuntarily converted another surface ship into a submarine.

https://www.twz.com/sea/ukrainian-dr...vy-patrol-ship

Commissioned in July 2022, the Sergei Kotov was one of four Project 22160 patrol ships, all based in the Black Sea, and each costing roughly $65m.

The Ukrainians had claimed to have hit Project 22160 with either an SSM or shore-launched rocket during the first year of the war, but that turned out to be false.

The loss of the Sergei Kotov has been confirmed by Russian sources.

-

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The Russian navy has involuntarily converted another surface ship into a submarine.

https://www.twz.com/sea/ukrainian-dr...vy-patrol-ship

Commissioned in July 2022, the Sergei Kotov was one of four Project 22160 patrol ships, all based in the Black Sea, and each costing roughly $65m.

The Ukrainians had claimed to have hit Project 22160 with either an SSM or shore-launched rocket during the first year of the war, but that turned out to be false.

The loss of the Sergei Kotov has been confirmed by Russian sources.

-

There's a solid nighttime video of the sinking available online for anyone interested in seeing it. It appears as though the naval drone fires a forward facing rocket at the Sergey Kotov just prior to impact, opening up the hull prior to its own impact - it's very impressive. It also seems that the Sergey Kotov was one of the Russian craft in the Black Sea capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. A worthwhile target.

I keep reflecting on how drones are radically changing the face of warfare in future engagements. I'm sure every branch of the US and European militaries right now are deeply examining the new risks to their own equipment as those risks are being put in the limelight in Ukraine. It also presents some wild opportunities for new equipment, and the militaries that are able to properly capitalize on the new technologies are going to have a decided edge in future conflicts. As but one example, naval drones likely have a more limited capacity at the moment due to radio waves being unable to penetrate as far under the water. I'm sure folks are already looking at implementing AI onto new naval drones that would allow them to be more of a "launch and forget" system, which would remove the need for radio guidance entirely.

[Vespers War]

Playing devil's advocate, it's worth noting a few things about the Project 22160 patrol boats.
1. They're tiny. The US Coast Guard's Legend-class cutters are almost triple the displacement of a 22160.
2. Their armament is a bit funky, consisting of a 76mm dual-purpose gun, a pair of 14.5mm machine guns, modular missile/torpedo launchers, and anti-personnel grenade launchers. After Moskva was promoted from ship to reef they received a Tor-M2 SAM launcher vehicle to park on their rear deck to provide air defense. Notably they don't have any of the 30mm CIWS or any light missile launchers other than the jerry-rigged Tor system.

They're oriented towards an anti-big ship or surface bombardment role, with Kalibr or Uran missiles or Paket torpedoes, with relatively little weaponry dedicated to self-defense from either surface combatants or aircraft. If I had to compare them to something Western, it would be the dedicated anti-submarine frigates from the Cold War that relied on the rest of their battle group for protection from anything else. They fill a useful role, but they are rather vulnerable on their own.

Allegedly this was an attack by MAGURA V5 drones, which are the same type that sank Tsezar Kunikov on Valentine's Day. Since November they've destroyed three landing craft (1 Serna, 1 Akula, 1 Ropucha) a Tarantul missile corvette, and now the Project 22160 patrol ship.

[Vespers War]

Something new that came up in one of my discussions recently is that Russia appears to be getting more active in tasking long-range fires, using relatively high-flying drones to identify targets and quickly getting surface-to-surface missiles on them. This ties into some of the earlier posts here about the cost of defeating drones. These are generally too high for a Gepard or other small autocannon SPAAG to reach, so right now the only option is an expensive missile. The ubiquity of drones may call for resuming development of larger-caliber SPAAGs, like the 76mm Otomatic and Draco that were prototyped but never purchased. Otomatic was supposed to be fitted to Leopard 1 and/or M60 tanks, and Draco on the Centauro 8x8 armored car. Developing a turret with radars and a high-angle mount for a large autocannon for obsolescent (but still usable) tank hulls and/or the various LAV/Piranha/Stryker type armored cars would provide another layer of air defense between missiles and the small-caliber autocannon SPAAGs that is looking more necessary as drone warfare rapidly evolves.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by Heffe

There's a solid nighttime video of the sinking available online for anyone interested in seeing it. It appears as though the naval drone fires a forward facing rocket at the Sergey Kotov just prior to impact, opening up the hull prior to its own impact - it's very impressive. It also seems that the Sergey Kotov was one of the Russian craft in the Black Sea capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. A worthwhile target.

I keep reflecting on how drones are radically changing the face of warfare in future engagements. I'm sure every branch of the US and European militaries right now are deeply examining the new risks to their own equipment as those risks are being put in the limelight in Ukraine. It also presents some wild opportunities for new equipment, and the militaries that are able to properly capitalize on the new technologies are going to have a decided edge in future conflicts. As but one example, naval drones likely have a more limited capacity at the moment due to radio waves being unable to penetrate as far under the water. I'm sure folks are already looking at implementing AI onto new naval drones that would allow them to be more of a "launch and forget" system, which would remove the need for radio guidance entirely.

IMHO, commoditized drone tech represents a true "revolution in military affairs."

The cost/benefit ratio is completely out of whack with other weapons platforms. You basically have, roughly speaking $200 to $10k platforms (from the grenade dropping hobby FPV drones to the longer range military suicide drones with thermal and semi-autonomous capabilities) able take out material and personnel much more cost effectively than almost any other option.

For example, the M982 Excalibur 155mm guided projectile costs $68,000 to $250k per round. A JDAM kit $30k - but has to be deployed via a $30 million+ piece of equipment, and a non-permissive environment raises the cost of delivery significantly.

But drones excel in non-permissive environments because they are cheap, the AAA counter-measures are themselves ideal high priority targets for the drones, and no one has really come up with a great strategy to deal with them yet in a near-peer contest like in the Ukraine (in Gaza, Hamas basically just ran out of drones rather than Israel completely nullifying them tactically). Missiles aren't cost effective, and no one has apparently deployed a gun system that works all that great.

The net net is you have a situation where maneuver forces are extremely vulnerable, infantry forces are extremely vulnerable, and Russia's strategy of deploying poorly trained and equipped Mobiks to soak up drones may actually not be the worst strategy out there. Better, from a Russian point of view, to lose a conscript with an AK-74 and some recycled fatigues and boots, than a T-90.

[Heffe]

I'm somewhat reminded of this scene from Angel has Fallen (absolutely terrible movie btw, would not recommend):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbGxYoxpPdI

But that scene with drones, in hindsight, seems a bit prescient. Perhaps not in the delivery of the drones, but at least in the tactic. As individual drone countermeasures become the norm, I have a feeling we're going to start seeing more "swarming" techniques being used against high value targets. Even a purpose built gun system is going to struggle against 20-50 grenade-sized drones, which each cost $100, all attacking in unison.

[kato13]

Well this is going to be a big deal.

Gunmen open fire at people at concert hall near Moscow, (MASS) casualties reported. (Mass added to be accurate)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2024-03-22/

The US warned citizens not to go to public places about 2 weeks ago,
https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-al...next-48-hours/

The embassy’s warning came on the same day that Russia’s Federal Security Service said it foiled a plot by an Islamic State-linked group to attack a synagogue in Moscow.
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/int...herings-moscow

If I had to guess I would bet on Islamic separatists or a Russian false flag. But the US warning alone will be enough for this to be spun as a Ukrainian operation necessitating full mobilization.

If you have any new information or opinions always happy to get another perspective.

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by kato13

Well this is going to be a big deal.

Gunmen open fire at people at concert hall near Moscow, (MASS) casualties reported. (Mass added to be accurate)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2024-03-22/

The US warned citizens not to go to public places about 2 weeks ago,
https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-al...next-48-hours/

The embassy’s warning came on the same day that Russia’s Federal Security Service said it foiled a plot by an Islamic State-linked group to attack a synagogue in Moscow.
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/int...herings-moscow

If I had to guess I would bet on Islamic separatists or a Russian false flag. But the US warning alone will be enough for this to be spun as a Ukrainian operation necessitating full mobilization.

If you have any new information or opinions always happy to get another perspective.

ISIS-Khorasan (the branch active in Afghanistan and proximate areas) is claiming responsibility for the attack.