OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The Ukrainians are using their new, longer-range ATACMS to hit SAM sites and Russian-held airfields in Crimea. I wonder what their long-game is. I'm guessing that it's a shaping operation, to prepare for entry of the incoming F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark. That said, I'm not sure what the point is, strategically, as, at this point, I don't think Ukraine has any realistic chance of regaining Crimea by force-of-arms. So why expend their finite stock of long-range ATACMS in pursuit of that goal? It seems like they could be better spent shaping the battlefield in Donetsk and/or around Kharkiv, where UAF ground and- soon- air forces have a much better (but still not great, sadly) chance of regaining territory.

Thoughts?

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A feint? Concentrate some effort in Crimea with ATACMS to draw off Russian resources then deploy the newly arrived F-16s en masse to achieve temporary air superiority in one of the sectors being threatened by recent Russian advances?