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Times have really changed. Back in the mid-to-late 1980s, it seemed like the only way that the Cold War would end was in nuclear Armageddon (worst case) or, in the best case, a Red Storm Rising type conventional war scenario that would see NATO triumphant. As it turned out, the end was a lot less spectacular (thank heaven). Subsequently, for a little over a decade, it seemed like the West no longer had anything to fear from Russia.
And now here were are, in the midst of a new, even more complicated Cold War. Several former SSRs are now NATO members. Several former SSRs, and former Warsaw Pact members, now belong to NATO. Poland, the original setting of T2k, is a full NATO member that has just concluded a deal to purchase one of the USA's most advanced conventional weapons systems, the F-35 (check out the cool promo pics in the linked article). https://www.twz.com/air/polands-firs...ter-rolled-out Even perennially neutral Sweden is now a NATO member. Today Russia, rather than the USSR, plays the role of NATO's major antagonist. Its government is yet again a one-party state led by an anti-democratic dictator. During the Cold War, a Soviet attack on Free Europe was a major fear, one that the USA's government and military-industrial complex were dedicated to preventing (or stopping, should deterrence fail). Two-and-a-half years ago, Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of its democratic neighbor, former SSR, Ukraine. In the USA, the once markedly more hawkish-on-Russia political party is now more sympathetic to the oppressive, imperialistic Russian government than to its fellow democracies, so much so that many American office-holders (and candidates) wish to stop aiding Ukraine, thereby appeasing the Russian dictator. In 1984, this would have been unthinkable, except perhaps in a Superfriends episode featuring Bizzarro World. It's still hard to believe that this is the way things are now. What else would the inhabitants of 1984 be shocked to learn about the present day? -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 08-29-2024 at 04:49 PM. |
#2
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From the Dark Conspiracy novels that GDW parallel earth game had some predictions about the year 2013 (the canon year for that game I believe).
I remember it saying that a full fledged video camera would be the size of a paperback book, and I did not believe that was going to happen. It also had the following stats for a powerful home computer ![]() They only missed most of the stats by about a factor of 1000. This world was supposed to be more technologically advanced as well due to alien influence. |
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@Raellus I don't think that it's so much that some of us in the US want to stop funding Ukraine and thereby "appeasing" the Russian dictator, it's more of a "what's in it for us". I look at it this way 1) America should have never forced Ukraine to give up it's portion of the old Soviet equipment after 1989. 2) The Democrats should have never forced the military to deactivate forces in Europe as part of the "Peace Dividend". 3) I find it funny that the party that told us Americans to "Trust the Russians", "reset our view of them", "Hey Mitt, the 1980's are calling and they want their Foreign Policy back (Laughs)", etc. are now the party of "let's get those Russkies". 4) I find it very disingenuous having said politicians trying to scare Americans with "if Ukraine falls, Poland is next." Considering that Poland is a NATO member and any attack would automatically trigger Article 5, so now Russia would be facing not just 1 country, but most of NATO. And 5) Even if he wins in Ukraine, I don't see his forces be "welcomed" any more than we were in Iraq. I see nothing but partisan attacks on his forces until it becomes too much for them. I have more points, but this is just small sample of some of my thinking.
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#4
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I did ask this question in Social Studies in 1983 after the school year began because the time period was from 1900 to 1983 (then present). Just for "shats ang giggles" I asked, "what if the US became like the USSR (or Evil Empire) and the USSR became like the US?" Well, in some what's that's true, in some ways Russia's economy is more market based but not all the way with the oligarchs but from 1983, it is more of a better system by comparison but the embargo is hurting them now. Politically, just a wee better, but basically you replaced one dictator with an other. On our side, I'm trying hard not to sound too political but we have poor leadership in almost all Western nations. In a way like an Evil Empire, well maybe Evil is a bit strong, more like Stupid Empire, it seems like we are pushing Russia possible into a corner. Backing up, it started in the 1990's where we got involved with the Balkans. We should have stayed out, we, I'm talking about the United States as "we," have little or no interest there.If Europe or any other nation wants to go in, it is their decision. It started there, the pressure on Russia and it snowballed from there. Maybe if we did not put the pressure on them then, Putin might not be in power today as a response. I admit playing "what if" is tough but I think we share part of the blame here. Putin is the power in Russia, like it or not, we have to deal with him. We cannot back him into a corner. OK, I'm more of a Libertarian/Conservative/America and Western World First, South Park Republican, whatever. I'm not for appeasement or sympathetic to the Russians, they are wrong. I just believe we need to work more to get both/all sides to the peace table after working a cease fire and talk this out and make deals. As much as I hate to say it, we might have to give something to Putin if he will give something to us, we need some some of negotiated compromise settling the problem. A compromise sometimes is where all sides may not get 100% of what they want but perhaps 80% ov erall but are welling to accept the deal and call it quits. What that will be, I don't know, but we need a cease fire to stop the bloodshed and then we can play Monty Hall, Let's Make a Deal. I know on my side there are the Putinistas, a pro Russian faction. I can explain it this way. A lot of people on that group see or have seen Russia as a saviour for traditional family values as a result of the Orthodox faith. A lot of people do not like the direction where the West is going ethically and morally so they turn their eyes to Russia or did. If I may be candid, honestly, I felt that way myself for a little while. We need to tolerate others who are different, i'm willing to bend and accept and even support but the pendulum swung so far with the wokeness out there, I can understand this faction even though I'd never throw in with them. Does Putin believe in family values of the Orthodox faith? I can't say. Some say he opportunistic and willing to use them to get his way, certainly possible. Only God and Putin knows what's in their heart. We need to find a way to get all sides to talk and work out a peace deal. Already a lot of nations are cutting back aid, maybe it is the right thing to do, that is if we take this opportunity to get all sides to the table. Still at the very least, we might have to work on containment like we did in the 1980's.
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Slave to 1 cat. |
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Slave to 1 cat. |
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They were close in in some ways but way off on the specs although being able to access the world anywhere with a modem reminds me of Starlink a little bit.
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Slave to 1 cat. |
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Well of course. In hindsight, Ukraine absolutely should have held onto its nukes. The other signatories have basically used the Budapest Memorandum as toilet paper.
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The ~24 year projection in Dark Conspiracy was positing that phone connectivity and thus the reach of modems would increase, not envisioning dedicated IP data networks. DC was released even before consumer access to the Internet was even a thing. |
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I wonder if any of the original T2k team anticipated the rapid rise of China over the past three decades or so.
I remember as a teenager watching a documentary that I taped in 1989 about the Chinese military. At the time, the PRC's most high-tech weaponry was designed in the 1950s and '60s. It seemed that China was decades behind the west when it came to military technology. PLA troops spent more time farming than training. China today is arguably fast approaching global superpower status. It's entire military has modernized by leaps and bounds since 1989. It's navy is larger than the USA's and its new ship construction far outstrips ours. It's developed and produced indigenous stealth aircraft (thanks to a lot of successful industrial espionage). The PLA has a presence in both space and cyberspace. I think the original T2k team would be surprised. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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The ironic thing is, the US and Russia share many of the same geopolitical threats (China, radical Islam), and Russia is under much more of a direct threat from both. |
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https://www.businessinsider.com/us-n...rigates-2023-5 We lost our numerical advantage years ago; our fleet is getting old and we're quickly losing our qualitative advantage. We can't continue to lean on our illustrious naval tradition and superior operational experience, in lieu of new construction and upgrades of aging platforms. That's the mistake the IJN made during WW2 and look what happened to Japan. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 09-05-2024 at 12:31 PM. |
#13
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Back when I started working in 1986 all I needed was a black ink pen and a red ink pen. No computers...
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#14
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@Raellus "How is allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine in the USA's national interest? If NATO turned a blind eye to the Russian conquest of Ukraine in 2022, would Putin really have believed that NATO has the stomach to go to war for Latvia or Estonia?" I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not for allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine, I'm just asking are we (the West) sure we have the stomach to do what is necessary. Is the West ready to possibly go to war with Russia and deal with the consequences (possible reinstatement of the Draft, massive casualties (military & civilian), etc.? I mean look at how the world is slowly changing it's attitude regarding Israel and it's war against Hamas, first it was do what you need to do to retaliate, now it's become you need to find a ceasefire agreement ASAP. Furthermore, the argument that the West would not fight for Latvia or Estonia is erroneous due to both members being in NATO and any hesitation/refusal to intervene would basically destroy the entire purpose of Article 5. And finally, as I stated even if Putin wins in Ukraine, I don't see the Ukrainian Resistance just trowing their hands up and walking away. I see it like the Taliban/Iraqi forces that drove our (the US) "F'ing nuts" with the constant roadside attacks, etc. I see them doing just the same to any Russian "Liberators" until their military/political leadership has had enough and withdraws (even just to save face) like they did in Afghanistan 1989.
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#15
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In conclusion, absent Putin declaring an end to his "special military operation" in Ukraine or coming to the negotiating table in good faith, I firmly believe that giving the UAF military aid that it requests (short of direct NATO intervention, of course) makes Europe safer than not aiding the UAF would. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 09-06-2024 at 03:48 PM. |
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I feel Putin is first and foremost a survivor and I don't see him betting his life again on the capabilities of the Russian armed forces. Thinking that Putin will feel emboldened to risk invoking Article 5 after:
Even with a decade to recover Russia would not be able to defeat just Poland (with them getting the cream of the crop equipment from the US and ROK). The reason Putin is not backing down now, is to prevent his own downfall. Even if he "wins" his current conflict, his tempting fate by attacking a Polarbear (NATO) when he just barely eked out a bloody victory against a Coyote (Ukraine) means he is in jeopardy of losing everything again with even slimmer odds of survival (the most important factor to him). I personally think if Putin ordered his generals to move into the Baltic states while NATO still exists, the command staff would realize if NATO came back with full force their remaining lifespan could be measured with an hourglass. Prigozhin made it over 50% of the way to Moscow. There would not be much to stop these generals for making it there. I want Russia defeated in Ukraine. I want all NATO members to take defense seriously and spend at least the 2% "required". I particularly want Germany who is limited in the number of armed forces it can deploy due to the reunification agreement, to make a super elite force befitting of their military history. But I don't like getting there via fear of something I don't feel is likely at all. |
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I'm very much enjoying reading everyone's analyses of the situation, and the cordial nature of the conversation. I agree with the views expressed that much of Putin's decision making at the moment is focused on his political and personal survival.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (Australia's non-commercial, government funded media organisation) recently got a couple of journalists across the border from Ukraine and into Russia. The Ukrainian unit they were with told them they could talk to whoever they wanted and record whatever they wanted, as long as it didn't reveal Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainians also said they would not seek to censor any of the ABC's reporting. The ABC's interviews with the Russians they spoke to in the occupied zone were very interesting. Quite a few really, really didn't like Putin. And considering they were under armed occupation, they didn't seem as upset with the Ukrainians as you might expect. Several mentioned that the Russian forces in the area made no effort to help them at all as they withdrew (apparently the Russian conscripts right at the border surrendered en masse as soon as the shooting started, and the rest left quickly), but the Ukrainians had been supplying the civilians left behind with food and medicine.
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@Targan: That's interesting. It's really difficult, IMHO, to get an accurate sense of Russian public opinion re Putin and/or the war. In the early days of the conflict, the Western media were rather sanguine in their assessments of opposition to the regime and its military adventurism. In the last year or so, I've read a couple of credible news pieces* that suggest that public support for the war in Russia is much broader and stronger than we'd been led to believe. *One in particular that I really wish I'd shared here at the time, and that I can't find now. The war in Ukraine is pretty much the only ongoing news story that I follow closely any more (I find American politics to be too frustrating/depressing). Apart from my fascination with various historical military conflicts, I've never been so invested in a war [occurring during my lifetime] that doesn't directly involve US forces. Russia is clearly the bad guy here. I'm pulling for the white hats, and I think the US gov't should too (regardless of which party predominates at any given time). Slava Ukraini! -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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I want the US to support Ukraine, but I want Europe to do more as even if a non Russian Ukraine is in US interests, this should be more of their fight as the refugee issue you mentioned effects them more directly. Germany is my biggest sticking point. After hostilities began they could have moved harder into using US and Qatari supplied LNG, instead of continuing, to this day, to directly fund the Russian war effort. If this is truly a European war of survival, Germany should be more willing to make more sacrifices. I know the gas from the US can be up to 10 times more expensive than the extremely cheap Russian gas but we could cut that cash flow entirely, thus saving more Ukrainian lives. For all of this millennium Germany (the worlds 3rd largest economy) felt it could slash its military effectiveness by coasting under the US defense umbrella and made energy deals that truly emboldened Putin (including shutting down their nuclear plants at least partially due to cheap Russian gas). It annoys me. Not so much I want to abandon the good people of Ukraine, but opening our checkbook would be easier if I felt Germany was reaping more of what they had sown. EDIT Getting back on topic of this thread. Who in 1984 would have thought a reunited Germany would only have three divisions in 2022, none of which would be combat effective without a 3 month ramp up, and even that timeline is debatable. Last edited by kato13; 09-07-2024 at 02:48 AM. |
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Slave to 1 cat. |
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Slave to 1 cat. |
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That virtually all NATO members (not merely Germany and France) suspended or abolished conscription AND drastically slashed personnel-to the point where many can only field a brigade (if they're lucky) and have minimal supply/ordnance stockpiles. Virtually all U.S. Army Reserve combat units are long gone. The nearly 600 ship U.S. Navy is effectively halved. The megaton range nuclear ordnance (on both sides) is gone or mothballed-replaced (mostly) by smaller weapons. The miniaturization and (relatively) low cost of advanced electronics-computers, cellular phones, the IPod, and the like. The U.S. Army 10th Mountain and 25th Light Infantry Divisions still exist while the 7th and 9th Light Motorized were killed and inactivated. The round-out/round-up ARNG concept of pairing two active brigades and having a Naional Guard brigade to bring them up to strength is effectively gone. There are doubtlessly many others that I have missed-those are just some highlights in my mind. |
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After reading your comments regarding Germany - sorry, but I am laughing.
Long ago I wrote a satire exactly about that and as I dont know if this will derail this thread I will post the relevant part if you agree. And to the war: (and yes, I am the pessimist) In regard to war you need two things: manpower and willpower. The West has neither. (I apologize for the cold language) Compare - for instance - 1800 to today. Back then every country had a childfactor of 4 or more (4 children born per family. And you need 2,1 to keep the number of population) And then the countries could go to war, lose a few tenthousand or more (Napoleon anybody with about 800.000 death in Russia alone on both sides combined) and still have a population growth. Today any NATO country has a childfactor of 1,5 or worse. So, losing people is bad, because we have no replacement, no security margin. We are barebones. Or does anybody think that - if we enter the war - we will have no casualties? Willpower: We dont have it. Remember Syria? One red line after another. Not one politician willing to pull the trigger. Just imagine that after having crossed the line of using a chemical weapon Assad would have been given a wake up call by a nuclear weapon detonated close (BUT far enough away to cause NO damage!!) to the coast of Syria. And look at the state our weaponsindustry is in. According to a news in todays msn (based upon a report in the NZZ) even if Germany would spend every year the required 2% it will take about 40-100 years to bring back the military power of 2000. For tanks it will be till 2066 to reach the numbers we had in 2004 We made the mistake of destroying our equipment and downsizing our productioncapabilities. Russia did not. We may say thanks to our politicians for that. |
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There is much wisdom in what you say.
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UK 1.6 France 1.7 US 1.7 Turkey 1.8 I believe the only others are Bulgaria 1.6 and Romania 1.8 but how much value would they provide. Source https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...ame_desc=false Quote:
Personally I feel Russia's own demographics crash (1.4), while pulling (and the Ukrainians killing) so many soldiers from districts that generated above average population growth, makes this Russia's last hurrah (without self destructing). Even so if other NATO countries make conscious decisions not to do anything serious for their own defense, I can see more and more Americans not seeing the value in shouldering such a great percentage of costs of maintaining NATO's defensive strength. |
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The value of everything that is not a drone is fading rapidly, including manpower. |
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Hopefully, this is a link https://www.celesticon.com/Podcasts/...%20Striker.mp3
Frank Chadwick was speaking at a convention in 2011, about Striker (sci-fi minis game linked to Traveller) and the technological changes he did or didn't see coming between 1981 and 2011. I think that can speak to some tech changes we and GDW didn't predict from 1984 to now, either. For myself, aged 16 in 1984, I think I vaguely thought that the USSR might collapse, but with no thought as to timeline. I was reading Russian, Polish, and Soviet history as much as I could, as well as military history, and wargaming what I could find.
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My Twilight claim to fame: I ran "Allegheny Uprising" at Allegheny College, spring of 1988. |
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Who has functioning Hypersonicmissiles and deploys them? Russia If the media is to be believed (and yes, I am aware that the military doesnt tell us all) the USA is years if not decades behind Russia and China. And to the drone swarms: Do we even have the production capabilities to do so? I dont want to sound conspiracy theorists but every chip from China is a potentially hole to hack them. So, we would need an entire industrial setup here in the west. And it would be best if every country has a factory or two of its own. And yes, we should standarsize them. Find a body where you can fit multiple types of engines, armor and weaponsload and then every country can build their own drones. A german unit finds a french drone with a damaged engine: put a german engine in it and use it. But the greatest threat I see is Electronic Warfare. How do we make sure that our drones are not hacked? According to WELT (german newspaper) Germany is under relentless assault (but below war threshold) by other states. And some attacks can be followed to Russia and China. But also other countries. And it is hinted that some of those other countries are NATO members, industrial espionage somebody? So, do we have the Cyberwarfare capabilities against hacking and why do we hurt each other? |
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Drones / loitering munitions lowered the cost of "smart munitions" with a high PKILL from millions of dollars (Tomahawk ALCM) to tens of thousands of dollars (JDAM) to hundreds of dollars (for the really cheap ones) and have inverted the cost to countermeasure cost curve. For example, a hypersonic cruise missile probably isn't any cheaper than a PAC-2 Patriot. A current production run FIM-92 Stinger is a tad under $500,000 per missile/launcher unit. A Switchblade 300 (on the very high cost side of suicide drones) runs about $50,000 per unit. So, you are losing money shooting down a Switchblade 300 with a FIM-92, and you are losing a LOT of money shooting down a $500 DIY suicide drone that HAMAS or the Houthis are launching. The only real cost argument for shooting down $300 drones with $50,000 missiles is it's probably cheaper than losing whatever the drone is targeting. US munitions production capacity has really taken a hit over the last 20 years though. It is a fair point on whether or not we have the relevant industrial capacity to sustain a high tempo war for very long. |
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And to the costs of shooting done drones: What if we use drones to shoot done drones? If they attack with cheap drones: Two can play that game. But using drones in this capacity would need a lot more computing power to control all of them. I saw a trailer for a PC game: Ghost Recon Breakpoint https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lqj9aH3jLD0 Could we control such a drone swarm? |
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