Russia vs. Georgia

[kato13]

Nowhere Man 1966 08-11-2008, 12:41 PM Hopefully I won't start a flame war , but what is your take on the Russia vs. Georgia War? I doubt it will be "Twilight: 2009" but who knows? Since we are all well versed in the Cold War and the game itself, I figure we all have thoughts on it.


Chuck M.

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pmulcahy 08-11-2008, 01:11 PM Well, they just announced on CNN that Bush is pulling an "unknown number" of troops out of Iraq and sending them to Georgia! That MFing idiot! Does he not know why, since the end of World War 2, why we have never fought openly against the Russians?

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Law0369 08-11-2008, 01:50 PM Paul they are not our troops they are the 3,000 gergians that have been helping The coalalition in Iraq. They are light infantry and support troops. Georgia requested that they be allowed to end their tour in Iraq and have The United States transport them home. We are transporting them home Because we are the ones that gave them the ride to Iraq in the first place on our Military cargo aircraft. We have been (USMC) training Georgia in infantry and support roles since 2002. They have been an honorable partner and have lived up to all treaty obligations to the United States. Have some friends that have trained them and they told me they were good people and very generous. I dont know both side's of who started what or why and we as a group of very smart people here could find reasons to fault both sides and show historical referances too the fact ;so I wont get into that here. Just wanted you to know its not our guys going in...only giving there guys a ride home.


If you hear any more or anything differnt please inform us Paul I as the rest here value your input!

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Webstral 08-11-2008, 02:14 PM I’m not up-to-speed on either the Georgian or Russian military capability. However, I will offer a few rudimentary thoughts on the matter.


1) Georgia clearly wants South Ossetia back.

a. The volume of territory is a useful addition to Georgia’s landmass.

b. Keeping the Russians out of South Ossetia adds some space to be traded for time in the event of a Russian invasion (perhaps now underway)

c. The population represents a useful addition to the tax base

2) Russia wants South Ossetia to stay separate from Georgia

a. Some of the South Ossetia population is Russian

b. A separate South Ossetia is easier to annex than a South Ossetia which is part of Georgia


I don’t know how all this unfolded. There’s what the press says, and then there’s what actually happened. If Georgia actually kicked off this confrontation, then it’s a fatal act of poor judgment. If Russia kicked off the confrontation, then it’s in keeping with the Russian playbook. In either event, the Georgians are in for a rough ride.


I rather doubt the US or Europe will intervene in any useful way. It’s not in our nature. Georgia is too far away, and we aren’t really committed. Not yet. The fact that Russia wants to keep us out suggests to me that Russia is at least half responsible for the start of the fighting. Why wait three more years, only to find that NATO troops are on the ground with a treaty signed? I believe the Russians when they say they are after regime change. The new regime will be obliged to give up South Ossetia permanently, as well as Abkhazia. Sorry, Georgia.


If it sounds like I’m a bit critical of what will amount to our stand-offishness, it’s not that I don’t understand. Confronting Russia in her own back yard is risky business. It’s rather like reacting to the remilitarization of the Rhineland: who wants to turn up the heat over that?


The Russians know what they are doing. They know we don’t like it. They also know that we aren’t remotely prepared to pay the price of useful involvement. So we will call for cease-fires and the like while the Russians bring this whole business to whatever conclusion they see fit, short of the actual occupation of Georgia. Occupying Georgia might hasten NATO’s inclusion of Ukraine—something the Russians would rather not see. Far better for the Russians to extract some territory from Georgia and install a new regime that will keep the West at arm’s length.


Webstral

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Headquarters 08-11-2008, 02:54 PM Abkasia and South Ossetia are predominantly Russian populated.Since the confused days after the Soviet Union fell in the 1990s they have defacto governed themselves as breakaway republics financially and logistically backed by Moscow who have a dual interest in supporting their kin there as well as making moves in the bigger game of control of the black sea coast,the possibility for pipelines for oil etc .Both provinces have fielded forces to oppose Georgian rule and fighting have happened before -but nothing like this , a war and invasion proper.


Formally both breakaway republics are parts of Georgia and the rebels that control them are insurgents or renegades in the eyes of the Gruz-or Georgians.By international law- a perfectly acceptable pov.But the percentage of Russians living in the breakaway areas is a weighty argument as well.


The Russians have total airsuperiority ,numerical superiority and technical superiority.


Anyways -Georgia only has about 30 000 combat personnel all together -including their troops in Iraq,so getting them home is a clever way to raise attention internationally (since everyone is watching the Olympics),and a clever way to get the US to chime in by flying them back-a pretty strong signal of support -albeit not one that easily could be used by the Russians as a cause for one thing or another.Plus it is 10 % of their combat strength.


Anyways -the violence was started by the Georgians this time-by shelling the South Ossetian capitol with MLRS to make them get into line and start taking orders from the Georgian executive in Tiblisi.The Russians have been waiting for this pretext to get in there -secure Abkhasia and South Ossetia,scare all the small countries that were formerly the Soviet Union and set the Georgians straight about who runs things in that neck of the woods.

They have prepared the forces used in their response for some time -the Georgian shelling of Tshinkvali a perfect pretext to hit hard.


Historically ,however its pretty clear that the Georgians have gotten the worst of it -except for the time when the most famous Georgian of all ruled the CCCCP -Stalin .I think he killed 10 million Russians or so


I think the Georgian leadership critically misjudged the Russians.They are no longer a fledgeling has been but rather an assertive up and coming power -again.The Georgian ties to the US and EU might seem strong but the importance of this has been exaggerated by the Georgians.

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kcdusk 08-11-2008, 09:03 PM There is often talk of needing "space" to give reaction time of any invasion. I guess thats something i have trouble getting used to. There are no neibouring nations butted up against australia, whereas in europe everyone is bordered against everyone else making it too cosy.

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copeab 08-11-2008, 09:27 PM There is often talk of needing "space" to give reaction time of any invasion. I guess thats something i have trouble getting used to. There are no neibouring nations butted up against australia, whereas in europe everyone is bordered against everyone else making it too cosy.


Yeah. Here in the US we live in constant fear of hordes of hockey stick wielding Canadians streaming across the border like Dark Age Nordic raiders.


Brandon

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Raellus 08-11-2008, 10:24 PM The Georgian leadership must have been smoking something pretty strong when they decided it would be a good idea to kick the Russian Bear.


Did they seriously believe that the West would intervene militarily on their behalf? Sure, Dubya and their Pres are all buddy-buddy but come on!


On NPR's "All Things Considered" today, news analyst Daniel Shore compared the situation in Ossettia with western Europe's ambivalent response to Hitler's "liberation" of ethnic Germans living in the Sudentenland and the western abandonment of a rebellious Hungary to the Soviets almost two decades later.


I wouldn't go that far. It seems that Russia has some pretty strong, legitimate claims to S. Ossetia and it also appears that Georgia went a long way to provoke a Russian attack. Not that I approve of Russia's response so far, but I think comparisons to Hitler's warm up to WWII are a bit overstated in this case.


Anyway, assuming that Georgia somehow managed to "win" admittance to NATO in, say, 2013, this present conflict, delayed by 5 years, would have been the perfect pretext for the new Twilight game (T2013). Who'da thunk it?


This conflict is providing quite the treasure trove of T2K related images, though. By and large, Russian weapons and unis have changed very little since the late '80s. Most of the AP shots coming out of Ossetia could just have well come from Poland c. 2000!

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Targan 08-11-2008, 11:48 PM I found it absolutely hillarious when Dubbya told Russia to respect Georgia's sovereignty. Apparently the hypocrisy was entirely lost on him. F'ing halfwit.

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Trailer_Park_Jawa 08-12-2008, 12:24 AM To be completely candid I'm pretty ignorant about this area. My 1st reaction is to ask "...why does it seem like Europeans like to always chop each other into hamburger for shit that happened centuries ago.." but Im not sure this i really Europe nor is American policy completely sound either.


From what I've seen and read it seems like Georgia really miscalculated Russia's response. There is no way they can hold out and we are very unlikely to even offer any help aside from ferrying troops back from Iraq.


It just makes me thankful I live where I do. Despite some pretty serious personal issues right now I don't have to worry about a bomb landing on my house or being shelled.

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pmulcahy 08-12-2008, 12:46 AM The "unknown number of US troops" are apparently a small force of Marines/special ops types that are there to make sure the embassy personnel and any other Americans roaming around are gathered up and get out of Georgia safely. In addition, like Law said, we're bringing the Georgian troops home from Iraq, and those aircraft will probably have some security as well.

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Headquarters 08-12-2008, 03:20 AM The Georgian leadership must have been smoking something pretty strong when they decided it would be a good idea to kick the Russian Bear.


Did they seriously believe that the West would intervene militarily on their behalf? Sure, Dubya and their Pres are all buddy-buddy but come on!


On NPR's "All Things Considered" today, news analyst Daniel Shore compared the situation in Ossettia with western Europe's ambivalent response to Hitler's "liberation" of ethnic Germans living in the Sudentenland and the western abandonment of a rebellious Hungary to the Soviets almost two decades later.


I wouldn't go that far. It seems that Russia has some pretty strong, legitimate claims to S. Ossetia and it also appears that Georgia went a long way to provoke a Russian attack. Not that I approve of Russia's response so far, but I think comparisons to Hitler's warm up to WWII are a bit overstated in this case.


Anyway, assuming that Georgia somehow managed to "win" admittance to NATO in, say, 2013, this present conflict, delayed by 5 years, would have been the perfect pretext for the new Twilight game (T2013). Who'da thunk it?


This conflict is providing quite the treasure trove of T2K related images, though. By and large, Russian weapons and unis have changed very little since the late '80s. Most of the AP shots coming out of Ossetia could just have well come from Poland c. 2000!


hehe -thats true -well the guys over at twilight 2013 studios didnt think it plausible -they went with the traditional Ukrainian/French sparkplug solution...

hehe

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pmulcahy 08-12-2008, 08:24 AM hehe -thats true -well the guys over at twilight 2013 studios didnt think it plausible -they went with the traditional Ukrainian/French sparkplug solution...

hehe


The truth is stranger than fiction...

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Law0369 08-12-2008, 08:36 AM Paul call me and we can talk off line....pm me and i will send you my number...

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Mohoender 08-12-2008, 10:21 AM Hello people


I have red your posts for many month now and always apreciated them. Actually, I have used many of your exchanges in order to work on my own twilight scenario; thanks to many of you. However, I even think sometimes that I might be the sole player here in France. I don't really want to take position on this war, especially as it's not over yet but i think that you have been overseeing a few elements.


First, we have taken (I mean NATO) a similar position than Russia in Georgia when we backed the independence of Kosovo. One cannot put up game rules and change them when ever it wants. Except of course when you are dominating everyone and that is not the case anymore (oups). We put up this "intervention principle" when Russia was out of the game and, now that the country is back in shape, it takes advantage of it (probably taking revenge over NATO as it was opposed to the independence in Kosovo). Personaly, I always sought that we had been silly when backing their independence on the sole fact that the Albanian had become more numerous than the Serbs. Now anyone can put up this point about nearly every country in the world


Second, most military analists were stating that Russia remained unable to carry out such operation. Medvedev and Putin proved them all wrong and that might have been a strong motivation.


Third, the troops that remained in South Ossetia at the time of the Georgian attack were UN troops and that gave more strength to the russian's point of view.


Whatever, i just watched the press conference given by Medvedev and Sarkozy and that was very interesting. They came up with a peace proposition in six points including future negociation on the situation in Abkhazie and South Ossetia. It sounded like an inconditional surrender on the Georgian part.


I hope I haven't been too long and I thank you again (very nice forum)

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Nowhere Man 1966 08-12-2008, 10:29 AM The truth is stranger than fiction...


I'm a believer in "Alien Space Bats" (aka ASB's). ASB's are these powerful creatures with godlike powers that inhabit "alternate history" and "speculative history" where the scenario is so implausible that it would take them with their powers to make it happen. Ever since the breakup of the USSR to now, I often wonder if ASB's are tinkering with our history. My take on what they look like, think of the head of "Felix the Cat" with the big eyes, ears more batlike and longer fangs. Put the head on a cobby, round humanoid body and you get the idea. Average height, 5 feet tall.


Chuck M.

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Headquarters 08-12-2008, 02:10 PM Hello people


I have red your posts for many month now and always apreciated them. Actually, I have used many of your exchanges in order to work on my own twilight scenario; thanks to many of you. However, I even think sometimes that I might be the sole player here in France. I don't really want to take position on this war, especially as it's not over yet but i think that you have been overseeing a few elements.


First, we have taken (I mean NATO) a similar position than Russia in Georgia when we backed the independence of Kosovo. One cannot put up game rules and change them when ever it wants. Except of course when you are dominating everyone and that is not the case anymore (oups). We put up this "intervention principle" when Russia was out of the game and, now that the country is back in shape, it takes advantage of it (probably taking revenge over NATO as it was opposed to the independence in Kosovo). Personaly, I always sought that we had been silly when backing their independence on the sole fact that the Albanian had become more numerous than the Serbs. Now anyone can put up this point about nearly every country in the world


Second, most military analists were stating that Russia remained unable to carry out such operation. Medvedev and Putin proved them all wrong and that might have been a strong motivation.


Third, the troops that remained in South Ossetia at the time of the Georgian attack were UN troops and that gave more strength to the russian's point of view.


Whatever, i just watched the press conference given by Medvedev and Sarkozy and that was very interesting. They came up with a peace proposition in six points including future negociation on the situation in Abkhazie and South Ossetia. It sounded like an inconditional surrender on the Georgian part.


I hope I haven't been too long and I thank you again (very nice forum)


Havent seen any post by you yet -so welcome.

Its all a big dirty game over there and its pretty open that the Russians and the Georgians both have their skeletons in the cupboards thing .


Anyways - how is the Twilight 2000 following in France? Any interesting scenarios cooked up -France being a non eradicated state in the game ?

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Mohoender 08-12-2008, 03:37 PM Havent seen any post by you yet -so welcome.

Its all a big dirty game over there and its pretty open that the Russians and the Georgians both have their skeletons in the cupboards thing .


Anyways - how is the Twilight 2000 following in France? Any interesting scenarios cooked up -France being a non eradicated state in the game ?



Thanks for the welcome


The following is poor and the game remained almost unknown. However, I'm still working on a new timeline including more recent events and less nuclear devastation. :banghead:

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General Pain 08-13-2008, 02:54 AM Thanks for the welcome


The following is poor and the game remained almost unknown. However, I'm still working on a new timeline including more recent events and less nuclear devastation. :banghead:


wELCOME TO THE BOARd.....


I'm interested in hearing more of this new timeline....is the things you write based in france only? And what is this I read about less nuclear devestation....I allways thought the original story was to "mild" for lack of a better word....


Well that's just me anyway....

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Mohoender 08-13-2008, 05:22 AM wELCOME TO THE BOARd.....


I'm interested in hearing more of this new timeline....is the things you write based in france only? And what is this I read about less nuclear devestation....I allways thought the original story was to "mild" for lack of a better word....


Well that's just me anyway....


Hello


No, I didn't base it on France itself but I use the most recent world events and try to find a new path of action (obviously Georgia events put a new stone to this, but I 'll be stopping there). Concerning the point about less nuclear devastion, it's just because the missile we use today have less powerful warheads (almost no Mt warheads anymore) and better precision (for exemple: the Russian SS-27). Therefore, we get more precision and, may be, more physical destructions but less radiation or so I suppose. Anyway when, I'll be ready with it i'll post it

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tranquill 08-13-2008, 04:47 PM Here the news: http://samsonblinded.org/news/govern...te-russia-2647 *Israelis supply weapons to Georgia!

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Webstral 08-13-2008, 05:00 PM I'm curious about the remaining Jewish population in Russia. Perhaps the Israelis are circumspect about selling to Georgia because they want Russia to continue to allow Jewish emigrees to move to Israel. Admittedly, I don't know the first thing about the remaining Russian Jew population or current Russian emigration policy.


Webstral

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Nowhere Man 1966 08-14-2008, 11:13 AM I'm curious about the remaining Jewish population in Russia. Perhaps the Israelis are circumspect about selling to Georgia because they want Russia to continue to allow Jewish emigrees to move to Israel. Admittedly, I don't know the first thing about the remaining Russian Jew population or current Russian emigration policy.


Webstral


Hmmmm, I don't think Russia is the same as the USSR in allowing people to leave, even though they are still somewhat authoritarian. I think if you are a Jew or anybody else, you can leave Russia if you want, although of course, if you have the finanacial means to do so, that might be another question. I do remember in the 1970's and 1980's, the USSR did allow some Jews to leave but you had to wait in line until you "number was called" so to speak. Myself, I'm part Russian Jew, my grandmother told me stories passed on to her my her mother on the pogroms back then, she had two villages burned out from under her.


Chuck M.

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