Colombia in Twilight 2000

[General Pain]

Anyone done any write-up on this country/region ?

(Just did some reading on the cocain-cartells )

[General Pain]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Colombia

[kalos72]

The information about the government run munitions plants putting out 5.56N and such could be a nice plot line. But they seem to have a very potent military so it would need to develop some good background to supply an "in" for a player group.

I loved your other South America source books Pain...maybe one for Columbia is in order?

[General Pain]

Originally Posted by kalos72

The information about the government run munitions plants putting out 5.56N and such could be a nice plot line. But they seem to have a very potent military so it would need to develop some good background to supply an "in" for a player group.

I loved your other South America source books Pain...maybe one for Columbia is in order?

That was kind of my hidden agenda, so if noone has done it I'l probably fix it...

Thanx for the kudos though , it's allways nice to know people like my work.

[pmulcahy11b]

Someone once had a web site about that area of the world in T2K. It was drastically incomplete, but the author seems to have abandoned it after less than a year. I'll have to check to see if I downed it.

[General Pain]

interesting...

Maybe we could "be inspired" and credit him/them if it's good and work on it?

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by General Pain

Anyone done any write-up on this country/region ?

(Just did some reading on the cocain-cartells )

I did have some incomplete stuff on Columbia and the Cartels in my TW2000 campaign. Here's what I had.

The Cocaine Trade: The number one customer of South America’s cocaine trade was the United States, followed closely by Western Europe, Japan and Canada. All four of those economies have been smashed by WWIII. This wouldn't normally mean the end of the cocaine trade since it is driven by demand, and if people used cocaine to escape their troubles in the best of times, they sure as hell are going to keep using in the worst of times... if they can get it. While the demand may be there, the Western/Industrialized world can’t afford the cocaine at pre-war prices. That is going to depress the cocaine market greatly. Also, there are no international distribution chains left because there is so little international transportation infrastructure. So instead the Cocaine cartels in Columbia, Peru and Bolivia will need to scale back production and find a new customer base. They will have to sell to the least damaged nations, like France, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, and South Africa.
Most of the new cocaine trade would be concentrated on the countries of South America since that is where the cartels have the most physical access. Sailing ships would be used to transport the cocaine to costal ports around the continent. Fortunately for the cartels most of the continent’s population lives near the coast. Transport to French Guiana would allow sales to criminal groups from Union Frances like the Corsicans who would import it to France and then to any existing markets in Europe. Getting it to Australia, South Africa and New Zealand would be more difficult. Perhaps the Corsicans control the distribution since France controls what little international trade is left in the Atlantic. If there are no other distribution options, the cocaine cartels would be at the mercy of the Corsicans and they, not the Cartels, would be able to set the price.
Cocaine would still be plentiful, unless the Cartels decide to restrict the supply and drive the price up by creating less supply than demand. Unfortunately, that may not be possible with the Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) in Peru. Most coca leaf is grown Peru (Bolivia being a close second) and being commies, Maoist commies at that, the Sendero Luminoso are not going to get that whole supply-and-demand thing. So more likely the market will be flooded with super cheap cocaine, (unless the Cartels buy and stockpile like DeBeers). So maybe the cheapness of cocaine means that it will become as plentiful as opium in China in the 19th century, further compounding South America’s troubles by making the drug extremely cheap and widely available. In fact, the Cartels could simply reduce the amount of refining and just sell the cheaper Coca paste, which is smoked like crack. In fact, it’s more toxic and more addictive than crack cocaine. Cheap coca paste could be the product shipped overseas to third world markets, like Africa, where the drug is used to control and motivate troops.


Republic of Columbia:
Prewar Population: >42,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 40/km2
Prewar per capita income: $7,565
Prewar Literacy: 92.5%
Prewar Demographics: Mestizo 58%, white 20%, mulatto 14%, black 4%, mixed black-Amerindian 3%, Amerindian 1%
Prewar Infrastructure: 101 paved airports, 883 unpaved airports, railways 3,304 km rail, 26,000 km paved roadways, 84,000 km unpaved roadways, 7 ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.01%, permanent crops: 1.37%, 9,000 sq km irrigation/ coffee, cut flowers, bananas, rice, tobacco, corn, sugarcane, cocoa beans, oilseed, vegetables; forest products; shrimp
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: ?
Hydroelectric: ?
Other: ?
Prewar Energy Reserves: petroleum, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric.
Prewar Resources/Industries: iron ore, nickel, gold, copper, emeralds/ textiles, food processing, oil, clothing and footwear, beverages, chemicals, cement; gold, coal, emeralds.
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:?
Colombia is submerged in a civil war. There is no central authority. Country is divided between the remnants of the pre-war government, armed revolutionary groups (FARC and ELN), right wing self-defense organizations (AUC), and even local opportunistic warlords. The drug cartels’ power has waned since the collapse of the international distribution network for cocaine. The Medellin and Cali cartels went into decline and now barely control their cities of origin. The North Valley Cartel is now the most powerful cartel in the country and is the AUC’s primary backer. The FARC and ELN are supported by Cuba and Venezuela. Forced conscription into the various factions’ armies (especially of children) is common. The civil war has displaced millions and led to the deaths of millions more due to disruptions the food supply and the collapse of the medical system. Cholera and Typhoid Fever outbreaks are common in urban areas. With no national distribution of power, potable water, medical care or food, Columbia is as battered as Poland, only without the fallout, persistent chemicals, and large mechanized military forces.

[HorseSoldier]

Colombia, historically and geographically, would sort of tend to naturally fade towards city-states, I suspect. Don't know that they'd catch much nuclear attention, though neighboring Venezuela probably gets rocked pretty hard a couple times to get its fuel reserves offline. I'd guess Cuba ratchets up their support for the FARC (and all other communist guerrilla types in Cent/South America) to try and tie down US forces and aid.

Once the world economy takes a header, most of South America probably falls back into caudillo sort of warlordism and feudalism, with various rival generals and presidents-for-life and such doing the usual sort of T2K stuff. I don't think Colombia has a programmed implosion built into its economy like Brazil (which has a huge agricultural sector, but is a major net importer of basic foodstuffs since their agriculture is mostly about cash crops catering to US/European markets), so they might ride out the collapse smoother than elsewhere on the continent.

Alternately, if Colombia held together maybe their situation is relatively secure enough that they've got an expeditionary in Panama helping the US garrison hold the canal (and likely repair whatever damage it suffered during the war).

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by HorseSoldier

Alternately, if Colombia held together maybe their situation is relatively secure enough that they've got an expeditionary in Panama helping the US garrison hold the canal (and likely repair whatever damage it suffered during the war).

OR, they could have put together an expedition to take it for themselves, since the US kinda assisted the Panamanian break-away in the first place.

Did the Canal get nuked? If not, that's a huge national asset. If there is power to run the locks, IIRC the original equipment was still operating not long ago.

Did the US garrison ever pull out? I could see this happening, possibly even before the OMEGA evacuation of Europe-- both as a test-run, and because it's closer. I could see the forces being drawn down for replacements as casualties mount in 1998, and the need for holding the Canal fading in 1999 as shipping disappears. Even if it didn't get pulled out, the shipping that could still collect there would be a ready source for the SouthCom folks to use for their own going home.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Did the Canal get nuked? If not, that's a huge national asset. If there is power to run the locks, IIRC the original equipment was still operating not long ago.

There are four ways of looking at that:

1) The Canal is nuked to stop us from using it.
2) The Canal is attacked (probably by Cuban and/or Nicaraguan forces, backed by some Russian troops, in the T2K timeline) in an attempt to seize it for use by their forces.
3) The Russians don't feel the need to waste a nuke on it -- it's of limited use to naval vessels these days due to its relatively small size and slow method of operation.
4) The Russians/Cubans/Nicaraguans/Fomented Insurgents continually stage harassing attacks on the Canal Zone to tie up as many US forces as possible.

It may be possible that Mexican troops may be thrown into the mix in a T2K timeline as well.

[pmulcahy11b]

Or here's a sleeper idea: The Russians foment a Marxist rebellion/revolution in Panama in the months leading up to World War 3, and we end up having to take it back. US troops get tied up that way.

[HorseSoldier]

Agreed, I think -- by the time the war goes nuclear, nuking the canal isn't as useful as something to shut it down in the winter of 1996. If the Soviets can't get some sort of conventional strike onto it (launched from a sub or a surprise stashed on one of the "Soviet trawlers" that seemed to be prowling around the globe during the Cold War), then supporting guerrillas (and maybe using them to screen a SOF effort by Cuban and/or Soviet units) would be a pretty good idea.

I'm not sure what the US has left to throw against them, besides the brigade already down there. 7th SFG comes to mind immediately, and in the 80s and 90s, they spent so much time down there (not even counting the C/3/7 guys who were forward deployed there) that a real FID mission in Panama would probably seem like a Group-level live fire FTX. Can't think of anyone else unaccounted for in the US OOB.